Some strong trends for the grand national and applying them will give us a far better chance of getting the winner than not.

13 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or above.

11 of the last 14 were 9 or 10 year old.

1970 was the last time a horse won this without previously having won at at least 3 miles.

may sound obvious but you need a consistently good jumper. Horses with 3 or 4 career falls are best avoided.

previous years Irish grand national does well ( Niche market ).

prominent racers do well.

last year was a freak year with the first 4 all carrying 11 stone or more...as you can see from the list below that is tough to do so preference is given to horses carrying less than 11 stone.

only 1 horse that won at cheltenham has won since 1961.

 

 

Year Horse Age Wgt Trainer Jockey SP

2009 Mon Mome 9 11-0 Miss V Williams Liam Treadwell 100/1

2008 Comply Or Die 9 10-9 D E Pipe Timmy Murphy 7/1JF

2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 Gordon Elliott R M Power 33/1

2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 Martin Brassil N P Madden 11/1

2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 W P Mullins R Walsh 7/1F

2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 D McCain G Lee 16/1

2003 Monty´s Pass 10 10-7 James Joseph Mangan B J Geraghty 16/1

2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies J Culloty 20/1

2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11 N B Mason Richard Guest 33/1

2000 Papillon 9 10-12 T M Walsh R Walsh 10/1

1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-0 Thomas Carberry P Carberry 10/1

1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 N A Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn 7/1F

1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0 S A Brookshaw A Dobbin 14/1

1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 T A Casey M A Fitzgerald 7/1f

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am eliminating from my calculations the top 10 in the weights

abertas run...madison du berlais..notre pere...tarania...our vic...mon mome...black apalachi....joe lively...vic venturi...comply or die

going through the others in betting order

big fella thanks...too young.

tricky trickster....too young

backstage...too young

the package...too young

war of attrition....too old

NICHE MARKET....BET @ 27

STATE OF PLAY..BET @ 27

arbor supreme....too young

SNOWY MORNING...BET 27 - TOP TIP 

character building...has tried 4m plus and seemed to not stay.

bally holland...doubtfull stayer

MY WILL...BET @ 46

DONT PUSH IT @ 50

chief dan george...won at cheltenham

maljimar...not won 3m

irish raptor...too old

possol...too young

dream alliance...poor jumper

hello bud...too old

whinstone boy ...needs soft ground

cant buy time....too young

razor royale....too young

king johns castle...too old

CLOUDY LANE...BET 75

iris de balme...form ?

silver birch....too old

palypso de creek....too young

le beau bal...too young

roulez cool....too young

air force one...too young

erics charm....too old

ballyfitz....makes mistakes

abbrybraney...makes mistakes

CERIUM...BET @ 140...was 4th last year as an 8yo and now a 9yo and on the same mark...hasnt won over 3m but cannot argue with last years 4th.

offshore account....makes mistakes

cane brake...too old

joe lively ...too old

 

these are all the horses that are shortest odds in the race as the winner is likely to be in there somewhere.

 

I have backed the above horses win only on betfair and plan to lay each horse in running at roughly 5% of the bet price...obviously leaving a decent profit if catching the winner.

some of the bets are carrying up to 11 stone 5lb but as I am trying to lay in running they could trade short even if the weight does tell in the end.

All the horses are 9 or 10 year old but wouldnt dismiss 11 year olds if you have strong reasons for liking them.

Big Fella thanks and Tricky Trickster would be worth an early punt for next year, big fella will be 9 next year and Tricky 8.

 

good shout from daytripping there, sure BFT is in around the favourites this year.

 

Not had a look at the race at all yet, as if that makes any difference for a mug like me!

May have a small bet this year. Usually put on a few quid, never to see it again. I  know absolutely nothing about horses and usually just go for the bizarre names.

V-neck, 40/1 apparently it is one of the best jumpers around right now.

V-neck, 40/1 apparently it is one of the best jumpers around right now.

 

Is that the horse with the up and coming jockey G. Star on board

Silver By Nature is owned by St Johnstone chairman Geoff Brown. And there endeth my knowledge of this year's Grand National.

None of my cousin's horses there, so no bet or tip from me

Just got Vic Venturi in the works sweep so will be punting a couple of quid on. Guaranteed to be on its way to the glue factory by 5 on Saturday.

I'm on Don't Push It (again) and Silver by Nature, both e/w.

 

Bit concerned that too many seem to be tipping Silver by Nature.

I'm fancying Ballabriggs, Character Building (e/w) and Midnight Club. Big Fella Thanks might also be worth a good e/w bet. No decided yet what bet to stick on Ballabriggs or Midnight Club.

Silver by Nature and West End Rocker for me.

Off to the bookies soon, need to have a spy at the papers now!

Had a dream last night that Big Fella Thanks won it so I would be kicking meself if I didnt stick a pound or five on him. Got The Midnight Club and Ballabriggs on the nose, Character Building and Big Fella each way.

Will this be available to watch online? BBC website?

Went for single on comply or die, each way on ballabriggs, don't push it, West end rocker and grand slam hero.

1. Ballabriggs (Jason Maguire) 14-1

2. Oscar Time (Sam Waley-Cohen) 14-1

3. Don't Push It (Tony McCoy) 9-1

4. State Of Play (Paul Moloney) 28-1

5. Niche Market (Harry Skelton) 16-1

Got Ballabriggs in the works sweepstakes and stuck a couple of quid on it to win, had £1 e/w on state of play as well so all in all i'm delighted! 

 

Just need tomorrows football coupon to come in and McIlroy to win the masters to round off a good weekends gambling!

Put £5 on Ballabriggs to win at 14/1. Happy days! 

Put £5 on Ballabriggs to win at 14/1. Happy days! 

 

nice one, my each way worked out quite nicely and all. Just wish id had the courage to put a proper bet on bellabriggs. Ach well, a wins a win

£10 on Ballabrigs at 14s and £50 out of the works sweeper. Cracker.

nice one, my each way worked out quite nicely and all. Just wish id had the courage to put a proper bet on bellabriggs. Ach well, a wins a win

 

Well you won more than me. I put £2 on Ballabriggs to win. I'm still pleased with that though as I know nothing about gambling or horse racing and only went for Ballabriggs through pure blind luck.

For the life of me I cannot understand horse racing. It almost seems cruel to me (which is an argument strengthened by the death of two participants at the weekend) and a certainly will never have any sort of care factor for horse racing.

For the life of me I cannot understand horse racing. It almost seems cruel to me (which is an argument strengthened by the death of two participants at the weekend) and a certainly will never have any sort of care factor for horse racing.

 

I never had any great affinity for it until I went to Ayr Races and it's fantastic "close up", you really begin to appreciate the speed and skill involved. They are fantastic creatures and it is a great shame that two died on Saturday (a jockey is in a very serious condition too apparently), but I would say that if the horses didn't want to race due to any cruelness then they just wouldn't race as they are far more powerful than the little guy or girl sitting on their back. A point perhaps shown by how many continue to race when their jockey has been unseated.

 

However, I think it is maybe time for them to look at the height of some of the jumps at the National and bring them down a bit.

1. Pick Horse

2. Place bet on where horse will finish race

3. And they're off!

 

I kent someone would pop up with a post like that!

 

 

I never had any great affinity for it until I went to Ayr Races and it's fantastic "close up", you really begin to appreciate the speed and skill involved. They are fantastic creatures and it is a great shame that two died on Saturday (a jockey is in a very serious condition too apparently), but I would say that if the horses didn't want to race due to any cruelness then they just wouldn't race as they are far more powerful than the little guy or girl sitting on their back. A point perhaps shown by how many continue to race when their jockey has been unseated.

 

However, I think it is maybe time for them to look at the height of some of the jumps at the National and bring them down a bit.

 

Aye I heard about the jockey too after I heard about the horses. In all honesty I have less sympathy for the jockey because they can appreciate and evaluate the risks. The horses are given less of a choice. I agree they're fantistic creatures. They've put up with so much shit from all man kind! From charging on the front line in conflicts to getting whipped relentlessly in races. Perhaps you're right, though, and I would appreciate it more if I'd seen it close up.

 

I completely agree with reducing the hight of the fences and I also think there should be harsher penalties for "excessive use of the whip".

I completely agree with reducing the hight of the fences and I also think there should be harsher penalties for "excessive use of the whip".

 

Is this rule not already in place?

 

http://www.animalaid.org.uk/h/n/CAMPAIGNS/horse/ALL/598/