Some strong trends for the grand national and applying them will give us a far better chance of getting the winner than not.

13 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or above.

11 of the last 14 were 9 or 10 year old.

1970 was the last time a horse won this without previously having won at at least 3 miles.

may sound obvious but you need a consistently good jumper. Horses with 3 or 4 career falls are best avoided.

previous years Irish grand national does well ( Niche market ).

prominent racers do well.

last year was a freak year with the first 4 all carrying 11 stone or more...as you can see from the list below that is tough to do so preference is given to horses carrying less than 11 stone.

only 1 horse that won at cheltenham has won since 1961.

 

 

Year Horse Age Wgt Trainer Jockey SP

2009 Mon Mome 9 11-0 Miss V Williams Liam Treadwell 100/1

2008 Comply Or Die 9 10-9 D E Pipe Timmy Murphy 7/1JF

2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 Gordon Elliott R M Power 33/1

2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 Martin Brassil N P Madden 11/1

2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 W P Mullins R Walsh 7/1F

2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 D McCain G Lee 16/1

2003 Monty´s Pass 10 10-7 James Joseph Mangan B J Geraghty 16/1

2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies J Culloty 20/1

2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11 N B Mason Richard Guest 33/1

2000 Papillon 9 10-12 T M Walsh R Walsh 10/1

1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-0 Thomas Carberry P Carberry 10/1

1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 N A Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn 7/1F

1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0 S A Brookshaw A Dobbin 14/1

1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 T A Casey M A Fitzgerald 7/1f

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am eliminating from my calculations the top 10 in the weights

abertas run...madison du berlais..notre pere...tarania...our vic...mon mome...black apalachi....joe lively...vic venturi...comply or die

going through the others in betting order

big fella thanks...too young.

tricky trickster....too young

backstage...too young

the package...too young

war of attrition....too old

NICHE MARKET....BET @ 27

STATE OF PLAY..BET @ 27

arbor supreme....too young

SNOWY MORNING...BET 27 - TOP TIP 

character building...has tried 4m plus and seemed to not stay.

bally holland...doubtfull stayer

MY WILL...BET @ 46

DONT PUSH IT @ 50

chief dan george...won at cheltenham

maljimar...not won 3m

irish raptor...too old

possol...too young

dream alliance...poor jumper

hello bud...too old

whinstone boy ...needs soft ground

cant buy time....too young

razor royale....too young

king johns castle...too old

CLOUDY LANE...BET 75

iris de balme...form ?

silver birch....too old

palypso de creek....too young

le beau bal...too young

roulez cool....too young

air force one...too young

erics charm....too old

ballyfitz....makes mistakes

abbrybraney...makes mistakes

CERIUM...BET @ 140...was 4th last year as an 8yo and now a 9yo and on the same mark...hasnt won over 3m but cannot argue with last years 4th.

offshore account....makes mistakes

cane brake...too old

joe lively ...too old

 

these are all the horses that are shortest odds in the race as the winner is likely to be in there somewhere.

 

I have backed the above horses win only on betfair and plan to lay each horse in running at roughly 5% of the bet price...obviously leaving a decent profit if catching the winner.

some of the bets are carrying up to 11 stone 5lb but as I am trying to lay in running they could trade short even if the weight does tell in the end.

All the horses are 9 or 10 year old but wouldnt dismiss 11 year olds if you have strong reasons for liking them.

Where could I find a print out or something so I can organise a sweep stake? (ie can't be arsed writing out names on bits of paper)

 

You organizing the Donstalk one this year?

Whatever horse I get always falls at the first or second fence, I'll let you all know who's the dogfood ths time asap so you can sve youe money!

This ^^^^^

Since i posted that i have got in to putting a bet on. And i'm rather good at. No idea why like.

But i still stand by my post that the Grand National should be banned in that it fucks up horses. 

Since i posted that i have got in to putting a bet on. And i'm rather good at. No idea why like.

But i still stand by my post that the Grand National should be banned in that it fucks up horses.

 

 

And I still agree.

 

Although the less horse racing there is the less valuable the horses become and the less likely it'll be that they're maintained.

Get yer cash on Weird Al(fromsleep) at 40-1

Anyone putting money on Seabass?

Get yer cash on Weird Al(fromsleep) at 40-1

 

Who you calling weird min 

Any truth in the rumour that seabass is a non-runner?

Any truth in the rumour that seabass is a non-runner?

 

Get yer cash on Weird Al(fromsleep) at 40-1

 

I got 66/1 on it from Corals at 9.30'ish this morning

Now in to 28/1

I got 66/1 on it from Corals at 9.30'ish this morning

Now in to 28/1

 

Now I understand why i got 66/1.............. a tenner spunked away

Just stuck a tenner on sunnyhillboy @ 20/1

very good stayer

 

 

useless cunt 

So, anyone got any tips for this year?  Completely forgot that it was on this weekend!

 

 

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-runners.php

Someone posted a brilliant thing last year (or a couple of years back) about the National, that narrowed the field down by age, colour, etc etc of past winners.  I want that info again.

 

 

Edit, daytripping posted it on page 1.  Panic over.

Last year as John Smiths Grand National

Got Cappa Bleu in the office sweepstakes but still undecided who I'm going to go for yet.  Need to make sure I get up in time!

Wonder if SeeBass (where the fuck is he these days) is backing SeeBass this year

Think he's more likely to go for Seabass to be honest. 

 

Balthazar king for me, fiver each way. Ch'Ching.

Am tempted to go for imperial commander, but at what im yet to decide.

Horrible disgusting race. As much I have have promised my self to stop gambling I am especially not gambling on this race. The fences are far to high.

Think he's more likely to go for Seabass to be honest. 

 

Balthazar king for me, fiver each way. Ch'Ching.

 

Pedantic cunt, although technically correct 

Went for imperial commander, Colbert station and rare bob with another cheeky bet on weird al.

Went for imperial commander, Colbert station and rare bob with another cheeky bet on weird al.

Did Weird Al actually run ?

I missed the beginning but it didn't look like it. The bookies must have had a field day with the actual winner!

I actually backed the winner in 2013 Auroras Encore £5 e/w at (66/1) and donated £422.50 winnings to palliative care place The Margaret Kerr Unit who looked after my Mam before she passed away four days on from Grand National that same year.  Unbeknown to me at time the victorious jockey Ryan Mania lived about three miles outside Melrose where this building was built so he helped one present a cheque and did a piece for local rag giving him some free exposure.  Retired less than 12 months later aged middle twenties citing a lack of drive having won biggest race there is in sport itself.