Some strong trends for the grand national and applying them will give us a far better chance of getting the winner than not.

13 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or above.

11 of the last 14 were 9 or 10 year old.

1970 was the last time a horse won this without previously having won at at least 3 miles.

may sound obvious but you need a consistently good jumper. Horses with 3 or 4 career falls are best avoided.

previous years Irish grand national does well ( Niche market ).

prominent racers do well.

last year was a freak year with the first 4 all carrying 11 stone or more...as you can see from the list below that is tough to do so preference is given to horses carrying less than 11 stone.

only 1 horse that won at cheltenham has won since 1961.

 

 

Year Horse Age Wgt Trainer Jockey SP

2009 Mon Mome 9 11-0 Miss V Williams Liam Treadwell 100/1

2008 Comply Or Die 9 10-9 D E Pipe Timmy Murphy 7/1JF

2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 Gordon Elliott R M Power 33/1

2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 Martin Brassil N P Madden 11/1

2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 W P Mullins R Walsh 7/1F

2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 D McCain G Lee 16/1

2003 Monty´s Pass 10 10-7 James Joseph Mangan B J Geraghty 16/1

2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies J Culloty 20/1

2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11 N B Mason Richard Guest 33/1

2000 Papillon 9 10-12 T M Walsh R Walsh 10/1

1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-0 Thomas Carberry P Carberry 10/1

1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 N A Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn 7/1F

1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0 S A Brookshaw A Dobbin 14/1

1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 T A Casey M A Fitzgerald 7/1f

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am eliminating from my calculations the top 10 in the weights

abertas run...madison du berlais..notre pere...tarania...our vic...mon mome...black apalachi....joe lively...vic venturi...comply or die

going through the others in betting order

big fella thanks...too young.

tricky trickster....too young

backstage...too young

the package...too young

war of attrition....too old

NICHE MARKET....BET @ 27

STATE OF PLAY..BET @ 27

arbor supreme....too young

SNOWY MORNING...BET 27 - TOP TIP 

character building...has tried 4m plus and seemed to not stay.

bally holland...doubtfull stayer

MY WILL...BET @ 46

DONT PUSH IT @ 50

chief dan george...won at cheltenham

maljimar...not won 3m

irish raptor...too old

possol...too young

dream alliance...poor jumper

hello bud...too old

whinstone boy ...needs soft ground

cant buy time....too young

razor royale....too young

king johns castle...too old

CLOUDY LANE...BET 75

iris de balme...form ?

silver birch....too old

palypso de creek....too young

le beau bal...too young

roulez cool....too young

air force one...too young

erics charm....too old

ballyfitz....makes mistakes

abbrybraney...makes mistakes

CERIUM...BET @ 140...was 4th last year as an 8yo and now a 9yo and on the same mark...hasnt won over 3m but cannot argue with last years 4th.

offshore account....makes mistakes

cane brake...too old

joe lively ...too old

 

these are all the horses that are shortest odds in the race as the winner is likely to be in there somewhere.

 

I have backed the above horses win only on betfair and plan to lay each horse in running at roughly 5% of the bet price...obviously leaving a decent profit if catching the winner.

some of the bets are carrying up to 11 stone 5lb but as I am trying to lay in running they could trade short even if the weight does tell in the end.

All the horses are 9 or 10 year old but wouldnt dismiss 11 year olds if you have strong reasons for liking them.

For the life of me I cannot understand horse racing. It almost seems cruel to me (which is an argument strengthened by the death of two participants at the weekend) and a certainly will never have any sort of care factor for horse racing.

This ^^^^^

Is this rule not already in place?

 

http://www.animalaid.org.uk/h/n/CAMPAIGNS/horse/ALL/598/

 

Err.. aye. I know it is but we need harsher penalties for jockeys found guilty of it. Instead of a few days that they sometimes get make it a few weeks or more.

Fucking hell Tyrant, you're a right Nag.

Fucking hell Tyrant, you're a right Nag.

 

Well if the shoe fits I'll wear it.

The sight of two dead horses under tarpaulin covers was not so unfamiliar and when jockey Peter Toole was rushed to hospital with life-threatening head injuries it was another reminder that the collateral damage of a race like the Grand National can be both severe and unavoidable.

 

However, the racing industry must grasp that if most inhabitants of the real world understand that you cannot have something so filled with courage and straining athleticism, both equine and human, without a considerable measure of risk, a decreasing number are inclined to shut their eyes to what was surely the most disquieting aspect of the victory of Ballabriggs. It was the systematic whipping of the naturally heroic 10-year-old winner.

 

This is not a phrase conjured up by some impassioned animal rights protester. It is the verdict of the stewards who examined the performance of the triumphant jockey, Jason Maguire. They banned him for five days, a decision which, when set down amid the glory of his victory, was not so much ironic as a raging paradox.

 

The stewards said Maguire's use of his whip was excessive, a ruling which leapt beyond its usual implications when you remembered that the jockey slid from his mount in the moment of triumph and that the training staff's efforts to fight severe dehydration and exhaustion began in an unprecedented frenzy.

 

One conclusion was impossible to swerve. It was that Ballabriggs had been driven dangerously near to the point of collapse. It is a routine way of racing and students of the whipping debate will recall readily enough that when Maguire's brilliant uncle, Adrian, won the 1993 King George VI Chase in a desperate finish he too was suspended for using the whip too freely. The winner's trainer, David Nicholson, was indignant, saying: "It was an epic race and neither horse was under pressure until after the last. My horse has not been marked."

 

The issue is not the degree of incriminating evidence. It is the real purpose of the whip. Racing says, quite disingenuously, that primarily it is a directional guidance, a sort of equine version of satnav which is also equipped to deliver a timely whack to an inattentive driver. Reality – as former trainer Charlie Brooks recently pointed out in a bracing argument for the complete banning of the whip – is that the reason for its existence is precisely the one exploited by Maguire on Saturday. It is to dredge up the last physical reserves of a horse that has come under pressure, or, put another way, gone beyond the best that it has.

 

Unsurprisingly, Sir Peter O'Sullevan, a leading supporter of horse charities across the world, belongs to the Brooks school of reasoning. O'Sullevan talks passionately of the thoroughbred's love of racing and here recently recalled how disconsolate his beloved Attivo became when he was finally put out to pasture. Naturally, he sees the contradiction in the picture of a great horse doing what comes to it so naturally right up the point where the whipping ensues. When, this is, the need to win dwarfs all others.

 

Racing cannot have it both ways. It cannot claim to be merely providing the means for thoroughbred expression while throwing in a hurtful device just to make sure.

 

When the great Lester Piggott was banned for stealing, in mid-race, the whip of his rival Geoff Lewis he was bemused. The Long Fella didn't see the problem, saying: "He was never going to win." Now, perhaps as never before, racing has to take a rather broader view.

Well if the shoe fits I'll wear it.

 

Stop horsing around. Keeping this thread away from the puns is mane thing.

The sight of two dead horses under tarpaulin covers was not so unfamiliar and when jockey Peter Toole was rushed to hospital with life-threatening head injuries it was another reminder that the collateral damage of a race like the Grand National can be both severe and unavoidable.

 

The Jockey wasn't injured in the Grand National.

My daughters watched the race with me for the first time and were really upset when the horses died - oddly enough it didn't seem to bother them a few years ago when we were at the racing in Musselburgh and a horse broke it's neck right in front of us 

These hippy fuckers tuck into their battery chickens and bacon from pigs reared in 5ft by 3ft cages - and then have the cheek to come on here greetin their dreaklocked heids aboot a horse getting a skelpit erse... 

I don't eat Pig or battery reared Chicken.

Ohh and i don't have Dreadlocks. 

anyone got any tips for the Scottish Grand National?

anyone got any tips for the Scottish Grand National?

 

Not a clue man.

 

I'll post any intel I am given though.

Not a clue man.

 

I'll post any intel I am given though.

 

cheers, it's actually for a girl in work who is going to it tomorrow.

 

Dusty Carpet... never been beaten 

 

The old ones are indeed the best!

Plz post picz.

Pics or she doesn't exist.

Plz post picz.

 

 

Anyone got any tips for this years National? We've just done an office sweepstake and i've got Killyglen, who according to BBC is at 16-1. But i'm curious as to who I should be looking at to put a bet on.

Where could I find a print out or something so I can organise a sweep stake? (ie can't be arsed writing out names on bits of paper)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/17674008

 

 

You're my very own google manc 

already been at least 1 fatality at aintree this year. i'm running out of sports to turn my fucking back on!!

already been at least 1 fatality at aintree this year. i'm running out of sports to turn my fucking back on!!

 

So you're not joining the sweepstake on Saturday?

already been at least 1 fatality at aintree this year. i'm running out of sports to turn my fucking back on!!

 

At least they will have some horse meat to sell to the punters.

At least they will have some horse meat to sell to the punters.

 

Tasty

Just stuck a tenner on sunnyhillboy @ 20/1

very good stayer

Where could I find a print out or something so I can organise a sweep stake? (ie can't be arsed writing out names on bits of paper)

 

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=grand+national+sweepstake+kit+2012