Author Topic: Brexit - Will it happen  (Read 48373 times)

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Offline Tyrant

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #200 on: October 21, 2019, 10:56:56 AM »
If the UK government refuse us a referendum, Sturgeon will just make a Scottish law in Holyrood to hold one anyway. Of course it will hold no status under UK law as it stands....but if it is held and there is a majority for independence, would the Uk government really stop us seceding?

Sturgeon has made it very clear time and time again that she won't do this. Looks where it got Catalonia.

For what it's worth I'm not convinced it is quite the right time. In general, folk over 65 are against independence for many reasons, not least having grown up with and lived through times where the NHS was created (or was a very new creation), a welfare state that in its early years worked as it was designed to do and nationalised industries that provided steady secure jobs. That generation will never vote anything other than to stay in the union. But they are slowly dying off. And being replaced by 16 year olds who are altogether far more open to the prospect of independence. So I'd rather hold off another 5 years or so by which time the UK hopefully will have exited the EU and Scotland can see just what a disaster that has been.

If we hold it next year I think we would lose  along the lines of 52% to 48%. And then we really cannot have another one for a full generation.


I think you're probably right in that Yes would lose again. But didn't the SNP vote to drastically increase the state pension in the event of Indy? That might talk some of the fossils round.


As an aside I wish to fuck everyone would stop using the term "once in a generation". The political landscape has rarely changed so much and so quickly than it has in recent years and using a term like "once in a generation" just isn't a promise that should be made or necessarily kept. It's used by those who are fucking terrified of losing the status quo.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #201 on: October 21, 2019, 11:07:29 AM »
I think it was Salmond who first used "once in a lifetime opportunity" (for independence) and when he fucked that up, his opponents jumped on this and the "once in a generation" phrase was born.

The political landscape may have changed but the people haven't. Scots are still stupid and feart of change. What also hasn't changed is that a successful campaign needs a clear vision and a convincing case to be made. There were so many unanswered questions last time - including the basics such as currency - that until the SNP spell out a bigger and better case, Indyref 2 would fail again (if held so soon).
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Offline Kowalski

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #202 on: October 21, 2019, 06:46:03 PM »
Well I hate to disagree but if the Tories some how manage to force a hard Brexit or even a no deal down Scotland’s throats, there will be many more voting for independence.