Was gonna post this in the Motherwell match thread, but seems apt to just start this one early.

Was just saying to someone on my way home from work there that the Dunfermline tie being away is the best thing that can happen to us.

If it had been at home, of course it increases our chances of winning, but it's another 9,000 home crowd, a win expected, and even if we get through it's not going to give our season a massive lift. The same way it didn't when we beat Raith Rovers in the last round. Sometimes even reaching Hampden gets a muted response.

But away from home, Saturday night, 2000-3000 travelling fans - maybe even more - the away end buzzing. One of those nights that - if we win - you get that connection between the fans and the players that we've seldom had this season. The new signings get to see just how good our away support can be if they deliver good performances.

A "proper cup tie" if you like, a chance to make Neil Lennon greet. It's something to look forward to which we really, really needed to keep the enthusiasm going for this season.

Also, despite Hearts, Hibs and Motherwell having significantly better league seasons than us, the odds on us winning a trophy are a lot shorter than it is for them, which is really quite something. 

Tickets: Stand behind the goal holds 3,000. When Hibs sold it out they were given an extra 1,000 in the main stand and in the stand opposite, turning the ground almost into a 50/50 split. Saturday night will put a few off but we'll still take very decent numbers I'm sure.

I tried to book the supporters bus, logged on at the appropriate time - 5pm yesterday - but by the time I'd scrolled through the steps (say 1 minute) found out it was already sold out.  It's as if some had had a head start.  So looks like the train and B&B as there aren't any trains back until Sunday.

Edited February 25Feb 25 by dons8321

3 minutes ago, dons8321 said:

I tried to book the supporters bus, logged on at the appropriate time - 5pm yesterday - but by the time I'd scrolled through the steps (say 1 minute) found out it was already sold out.  It's as if some had had a head start.  So looks like the train and B&B as there aren't any trains back until Sunday.

It’s also a 6 nations weekend in Edinburgh so not much in the way of accommodation on the go. 

7 minutes ago, Elgindon said:

There was far more at the Dee game than the 'Well game,I'd say over 15k inside the ground v Dee

About that probably, yes. Dundee game was a special freebie tickets galore occasion wasn't it?

Motherwell game being midweek didn't help. Mealers are less likely to journey into the big smoke on a dark Wednesday night in winter. That partly explains it but I'd agree that the domestic cup just isn't what it once was. It's the same story with the FA Cup in England. Not really sure why that should be. 

8 minutes ago, Bukta Bertie said:

About that probably, yes. Dundee game was a special freebie tickets galore occasion wasn't it?

Motherwell game being midweek didn't help. Mealers are less likely to journey into the big smoke on a dark Wednesday night in winter. That partly explains it but I'd agree that the domestic cup just isn't what it once was. It's the same story with the FA Cup in England. Not really sure why that should be. 

Was it not 500 freebies to youngsters in Upper RDS only? Maybe not....

The east section of the main stand (what Hibs got) isn't on sale to either support yet. Likely Dunfermline waiting to see how home sales go first.

So every chance we get extra tickets.

5 minutes ago, Panda said:

The east section of the main stand (what Hibs got) isn't on sale to either support yet. Likely Dunfermline waiting to see how home sales go first.

So every chance we get extra tickets.

They've got a shit support if we do get extras. 

Really looking forward to this one.

Potentially the last chance we get this season to load up on beer and stand in the ever present forest of expectation, just for a moment. COYR. 

8 hours ago, Ajja said:

Really looking forward to this one.

Potentially the last chance we get this season to load up on beer and stand in the ever present forest of expectation, just for a moment. COYR. 

It will be a very drunk away support for sure.

I've heard the word "carnage" thrown about by quite a few Dons fanatics.

All or nothing this one.

Whole season riding on it. Just gotta hope they’ve got enough about them to get the job done…

Can't score away from home and no chance of a replay. Penalty takers assemble... oh fk!

Dunfermline are keeping the east part of the main stand for themselves.

 They are going on sale from 10am tomorrow.

 I am sure some exiled Fifers in the North East might by some.😜

Are there any other Dandies like myself who have bought tickets in the main stand? 

Loose lips sink ships.

16 minutes ago, Dunfermline Don said:

Are there any other Dandies like myself who have bought tickets in the main stand? 

Just had a go the now,only ones left were up the back right in among the Pars fans.Got so far,then I was told "cart details not found".Do you need a buying history at EEP to buy?

11 minutes ago, Elgindon said:

Just had a go the now,only ones left were up the back right in among the Pars fans.Got so far,then I was told "cart details not found".Do you need a buying history at EEP to buy?

I honestly don’t know. I have a season ticket at East End (my sons are Pars fans) so I bought my tickets through that. They don’t have a loyalty points system like The Dons. 

I got mine in the main stand close to the area I thought we would be getting as I’m going with my Dad who’s in his 80s. He introduced me to The Dons when I was a youngster. 

as we have not scored a goal away from home this year then I am nae so sure that stat will change on Saturday.

1-0 the pars and our cup defence is over, or we hud on 0-0 and scrape through on penalties (only of Mitov is in goal) 

9 minutes ago, Blow.Up.Sheep said:

as we have not scored a goal away from home this year then I am nae so sure that stat will change on Saturday.

1-0 the pars and our cup defence is over, or we hud on 0-0 and scrape through on penalties (only of Mitov is in goal) 

You do realise with every game that passes without scoring the odds of us scoring actually increase. You do also realise Dunfermline are in a league below us and they're not exactly setting the heather slight. 

Dons to win and win comfortably. 

Plenty of seats still available in the area that went on sale at 10am this morning. I would have thought that it would have sold out by now if we had been given them. 

12 hours ago, Bukta Bertie said:

You do realise with every game that passes without scoring the odds of us scoring actually increase.

 

This is an example of what is known as 'The Gambler's Fallacy'

A guy watches the roulette wheel and notes that the ball has landed on black 10 times in row. He concludes that this means the next spin must be red, or has an elevated chance of landing on a red ..... so he whacks his weeks wages on red. It lands on black ... he fumes and claims there is something wrong with the wheel ... Of course, previous spins or tosses of a coin have no bearing on the probability of the next outcome.

Funny enough, folk who gamble on the horses/dogs do the opposite - they study form. No sane gambler will bet big on a horse/dog which has failed to win or be placed in it's last umpteen races in the belief that it is 'due a win'  

I do fancy we'll score, but .... errr .... I wouldn't bet on it   

Edited March 2Mar 2 by Radiored

1 minute ago, Radiored said:

This is an example of what is known as 'The Gambler's Fallacy'

A guy watches the roulette wheel and notes that the ball has landed on black 10 times in row. He concludes that this means the next spin must be red, or has an elevated chance of landing on a red ..... so he whacks his weeks wages on red. It lands on black ... he fumes and claims there is something wrong with the wheel ... Of course, previous spins or tosses of a coin have no bearing on the probability of the next outcome.

Funny enough, folk who gamble on the horses/dogs do the opposite - they study form. No sane gambler will bet big on a horse/dog which has failed to win or be placed in it's last umpteen races in the belief that it is 'due a win'  

I do fancy we'll score on Saturday, but .... errr .... I wouldn't bet on it   

We'll win at Dunfermline. Nap. Lump on.

1 hour ago, Radiored said:

This is an example of what is known as 'The Gambler's Fallacy'

A guy watches the roulette wheel and notes that the ball has landed on black 10 times in row. He concludes that this means the next spin must be red, or has an elevated chance of landing on a red ..... so he whacks his weeks wages on red. It lands on black ... he fumes and claims there is something wrong with the wheel ... Of course, previous spins or tosses of a coin have no bearing on the probability of the next outcome.

Funny enough, folk who gamble on the horses/dogs do the opposite - they study form. No sane gambler will bet big on a horse/dog which has failed to win or be placed in it's last umpteen races in the belief that it is 'due a win'  

I do fancy we'll score, but .... errr .... I wouldn't bet on it   

It’s like lottery numbers. If you guess 123456 folk will say ‘that will never come up’. The odds of any combination are exactly the same, every time. I’ve lost friends arguing that one 🤣

Anyway, back to the football. I’m checking out on speculating what’s gonna happen. What I knows is fairly certain is that I’m gonna go to the Elizabethan in the afternoon, drink a fair whack of lager and probably some spiced rum, catch up with friends, probably get a wee sing song ( if there’s still life in the red army) and stumble off to EEP. What happens there is less certain so I’ll surrender myself to the process. Stand Free and COYR. 

2 minutes ago, Ajja said:

It’s like lottery numbers. If you guess 123456 folk will say ‘that will never come up’. The odds of any combination are exactly the same, every time. I’ve lost friends arguing that one 🤣

Anyway, back to the football. I’m checking out on speculating what’s gonna happen. What I knows is fairly certain is that I’m gonna go to the Elizabethan in the afternoon, drink a fair whack of lager and probably some spiced rum, catch up with friends, probably get a wee sing song ( if there’s still life in the red army) and stumble off to EEP. What happens there is less certain so I’ll surrender myself to the process. Stand Free and COYR. 

It really isn't. What I said is entirely correct unless you believe we'll never score again which would be ridiculous.

Look at it this way. It's like a game of Russian Roulette. Every time you pull the trigger and it doesn't go off the odds shorten on it going bang the next time.

It's the same with a run of goalless football games. With every match you play the chances you'll score in the next game increase as it is inevitable you will eventually score. 

LUMP ON.

25 minutes ago, Bukta Bertie said:

Look at it this way. It's like a game of Russian Roulette. Every time you pull the trigger and it doesn't go off the odds shorten on it going bang the next time.

 

Yeah, true .... but it's not the same.

In Russian roulette, each misfire does shorten the odds. But, let's say after each misfire, the next 'participant' is allowed to spin the revolving cylinder thingy ... then the odds are the same each time - unaffected by the previous misfire. Then there is the assumed certainty that there is one bullet in the gun. What if there's not? 

So, if the Dons were somehow guaranteed one goal every six games .... whether by 'the gods', corrupt refs, opponents betting on their own team, or by some scammy fortune teller who is 'never wrong', ... then yeah .... each goalless game would increase the odds of a goal in the next. But guaranteed a goal every x number of games we are not. 

Of course we will score eventually .... but the odds that it will be any particular game, whether the next, the one after, or the one after that, is not governed by previous outcomes.

On the contrary, if we had been scoring freely in previous games, Ah'd say the probability/expectation o' scorin' in the next game would be much higher than that which our current form would indicate.
 

5 minutes ago, Radiored said:

Yeah, true .... but it's not the same.

In Russian roulette, each misfire does shorten the odds. But, let's say after each misfire, the next 'participant' is allowed to spin the revolving cylinder thingy ... then the odds are the same each time - unaffected by the previous misfire. Then there is the assumed certainty that there is one bullet in the gun. What if there's not? 

So, if the Dons were somehow guaranteed one goal every six games .... whether by 'the gods', corrupt refs, opponents betting on their own team, or by some scammy fortune teller who is 'never wrong', ... then yeah .... each goalless game would increase the odds of a goal in the next. But guaranteed a goal every x number of games we are not. 

Of course we will score eventually .... but the odds that it will be any particular game, whether the next, the one after, or the one after that, is not governed by previous outcomes.

On the contrary, if we had been scoring freely in previous games, Ah'd say the probability/expectation o' scorin' in the next game would be much higher than that which our current form would indicate.
 

Nah. I'm correct but it's not worth arguing over. No prizes to be won.

Bottom line is we'll win on Saturday and abody will be happy.

Presumably. Maybe. Hopefully. 

10 hours ago, Bukta Bertie said:

Nah. I'm correct but it's not worth arguing over. No prizes to be won

It is worth arguing over. You're wrong. Very clearly.