Author Topic: Brexit - Will it happen  (Read 52307 times)

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Offline Tyrant

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #200 on: October 21, 2019, 10:56:56 AM »
If the UK government refuse us a referendum, Sturgeon will just make a Scottish law in Holyrood to hold one anyway. Of course it will hold no status under UK law as it stands....but if it is held and there is a majority for independence, would the Uk government really stop us seceding?

Sturgeon has made it very clear time and time again that she won't do this. Looks where it got Catalonia.

For what it's worth I'm not convinced it is quite the right time. In general, folk over 65 are against independence for many reasons, not least having grown up with and lived through times where the NHS was created (or was a very new creation), a welfare state that in its early years worked as it was designed to do and nationalised industries that provided steady secure jobs. That generation will never vote anything other than to stay in the union. But they are slowly dying off. And being replaced by 16 year olds who are altogether far more open to the prospect of independence. So I'd rather hold off another 5 years or so by which time the UK hopefully will have exited the EU and Scotland can see just what a disaster that has been.

If we hold it next year I think we would lose  along the lines of 52% to 48%. And then we really cannot have another one for a full generation.


I think you're probably right in that Yes would lose again. But didn't the SNP vote to drastically increase the state pension in the event of Indy? That might talk some of the fossils round.


As an aside I wish to fuck everyone would stop using the term "once in a generation". The political landscape has rarely changed so much and so quickly than it has in recent years and using a term like "once in a generation" just isn't a promise that should be made or necessarily kept. It's used by those who are fucking terrified of losing the status quo.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #201 on: October 21, 2019, 11:07:29 AM »
I think it was Salmond who first used "once in a lifetime opportunity" (for independence) and when he fucked that up, his opponents jumped on this and the "once in a generation" phrase was born.

The political landscape may have changed but the people haven't. Scots are still stupid and feart of change. What also hasn't changed is that a successful campaign needs a clear vision and a convincing case to be made. There were so many unanswered questions last time - including the basics such as currency - that until the SNP spell out a bigger and better case, Indyref 2 would fail again (if held so soon).
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Offline Kowalski

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #202 on: October 21, 2019, 06:46:03 PM »
Well I hate to disagree but if the Tories some how manage to force a hard Brexit or even a no deal down Scotland’s throats, there will be many more voting for independence.

Offline Kowalski

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #203 on: December 13, 2019, 08:40:35 AM »
Time to admit I was wrong, I said it would never happen, but it will now.  I'm not sure *everybody* who voted for BoJo last night realise that it will still drag on for a number of years yet.

I blame Labour, the Lib Dems and the so-called "Peoples Vote" cabal for playing their cards very poorly.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #204 on: December 13, 2019, 11:15:54 AM »
Even if Boris allowed Indyref 2, I'm still not confident of winning it. The results yesterday and an increased SNP share may well have been votes against Brexit more than pro-independence. Westminster are desperate to hold on to Scotland. There are reasons for this. Whatever the reasons that Scots think it's a good idea to be part of the union, they escape me but if Boris was to grant us the Indyref asap, I'm sure it would fail again. It's all shit.
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Offline Tyrant

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #205 on: December 16, 2019, 10:21:41 AM »
Even if Boris allowed Indyref 2, I'm still not confident of winning it. The results yesterday and an increased SNP share may well have been votes against Brexit more than pro-independence. Westminster are desperate to hold on to Scotland. There are reasons for this. Whatever the reasons that Scots think it's a good idea to be part of the union, they escape me but if Boris was to grant us the Indyref asap, I'm sure it would fail again. It's all shit.


Agreed. Getting another Indyref will be the easy bit. Convincing over 50% to vote yes will be the hard bit. I don't think it'll happen anymore. Not soon anyway. Maybe Indyref 3, 4 or 5. :)

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #206 on: December 16, 2019, 10:52:59 AM »

Agreed. Getting another Indyref will be the easy bit. Convincing over 50% to vote yes will be the hard bit. I don't think it'll happen anymore. Not soon anyway. Maybe Indyref 3, 4 or 5. :)

I disagree. A day is a long time in politics. The main reason why I reckon 72% of Scotland would vote for independence now was what happened last night. The fucking BBC took the Sports Personality of the Year programme to our country, to our town and handed the main prize to a fucking cricketer. Plus they had a big Welsh weirdo cycling up the country to deliver it to him. Sickening behaviour and quintessentially English. Funny when she said the horse lassie was dressed in a jihad and the Doddie Weir tribute was quite moving even though rugger buggers give me the creeps. His wife was quite nice though. Brexit is happening now and independence isn't. Everything Nicola didn't want. Her lack of dignity was noted when celebrating too vehemently at another's demise. She speaks about being in touch with the people. She's not. She's a fucking idiot who married a man who looks like a fucking nothing. It's still all shit.
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Offline Garlogie_Granite

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #207 on: December 16, 2019, 11:28:42 AM »
Her lack of dignity was noted when celebrating too vehemently at another's demise. She speaks about being in touch with the people. She's not.
1. She was celebrating Amy Callaghan's amazing win, on the back of fighting off cancer, she fought off a UK party leader.
2. I met her couple weekends back when she toured the local constituencies, room of 50 people, spoke to every single one individually. A quite amazing presence she has. Probably beyond your wit though?

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #208 on: December 16, 2019, 11:37:05 AM »
There's more proof of her incapacity. Why would a potential national leader waste time on deadbeats like you? If she, and Salmond weren't oddball losers, we might have had a chance at independence.
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Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #209 on: December 16, 2019, 12:55:35 PM »
Interesting "plan B" put forward by Angus Brendan MacNeil....MP for the Ooter Hebrides. In the event Bojo refuses a second referendum, all 48 SNP MP's to resign and force 48 by-elections standing on a (if I have picked it up correctly) ticket of abandoning a second referendum and just declaring independence should a majority in Scotland overall (min 30) be re-elected.

I suppose it would indeed show how many SNP voters are truly voting for independence as opposed to using their vote as just a rejection of the Tories (or Labour and Lib Dems). And I suspect would have a greater chance of success rather than an indyref 2 right now, which I still maintain would result in another No victory at this point in time.

Personally, if I were formulating SNP policy now, I'd be creating laws and initiatives specifically designed to totally piss off England (ie massive public spending on shit that they don't/won't get) and hopefully encourage their more nationalistic citizens to start to think about the benefits of English independence. Because right now I just think that independence by default is probably our best chance.

Offline Tyrant

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #210 on: December 16, 2019, 01:11:00 PM »
Interesting "plan B" put forward by Angus Brendan MacNeil....MP for the Ooter Hebrides. In the event Bojo refuses a second referendum, all 48 SNP MP's to resign and force 48 by-elections standing on a (if I have picked it up correctly) ticket of abandoning a second referendum and just declaring independence should a majority in Scotland overall (min 30) be re-elected.

I suppose it would indeed show how many SNP voters are truly voting for independence as opposed to using their vote as just a rejection of the Tories (or Labour and Lib Dems). And I suspect would have a greater chance of success rather than an indyref 2 right now, which I still maintain would result in another No victory at this point in time.

Personally, if I were formulating SNP policy now, I'd be creating laws and initiatives specifically designed to totally piss off England (ie massive public spending on shit that they don't/won't get) and hopefully encourage their more nationalistic citizens to start to think about the benefits of English independence. Because right now I just think that independence by default is probably our best chance.


Wouldn't that entail finding 48 (Or 49 once Neale Hanvey gets let back in) other SNP candidates to stand? I assume you can't resign and then stand in the by election that you've facilitated by resigning? Maybe you can.

Massive gamble, that. It would be the last throw of the dice. In the likely event that it would fail it should be the end of the SNP. I've wanted a promise from them to disband in the event of a Yes vote but if they do that and fail we'll need new pro indy parties to take us forward even before we're independent.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #211 on: December 16, 2019, 01:11:29 PM »
Interesting "plan B" put forward by Angus Brendan MacNeil....MP for the Ooter Hebrides. In the event Bojo refuses a second referendum, all 48 SNP MP's to resign and force 48 by-elections standing on a (if I have picked it up correctly) ticket of abandoning a second referendum and just declaring independence should a majority in Scotland overall (min 30) be re-elected.

Not only would that be undemocratic, it's just plain stupid.

THERE IS NO STOMACH FOR INDEPENDENCE RIGHT NOW.

It's up to somebody, anybody, to put forward a coherent and workable case. Salmond didn't do that. Sturgeon has never done it. It's not fucking difficult. We CAN be successful as an independent country. It just needs to be "sold" properly and if Nicola was half as intelligent as she needs to be - to drive through a case that the majority of Scots can vote for - then she needs to do the due diligence, which includes talking to and negotiating with the EU before presenting the facts that the people can believe in.

Of course there are prejudiced old bigots like me (Fuck Westminster and England) who would vote Yes every time but I'm the minority and as evidenced by Question Time last week, there are still people out there who think England are subsidising us!!! Which begs the question well why are they so desperate to keep us and why will Boris say no to Indyref 2? Cameron was almost in tears selling us the better together shite.

DO YOUR FUCKING JOB SNP. Put the numbers together and put forward a good case.

It's out there. Nippie sweetie Sturgeon hasn't done it. She's too bitter and as an oddball, she doesn't understand that Scots will NOT vote for it right now. It's almost like she's believing her own hype and has totally skewed her own agenda by wrongfully holding her hat on the Brexit divisions between Scotland and England. It's all shite. We Scots can't run a piss-up in a brewery when we have incompetent politicians in charge.
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Online RicoS321

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #212 on: December 16, 2019, 01:21:10 PM »
There's more proof of her incapacity. Why would a potential national leader waste time on deadbeats like you? If she, and Salmond weren't oddball losers, we might have had a chance at independence.

The biggest problem with both for me was that they made/make very obvious errors. The obvious one for Salmond was the currency issue. I was happy enough with the fact that he addressed it clearly, it's just that he chose the wrong option. It was always going to be a Scottish currency. Always. No point in an independent Scotland without it.

Sturgeon's biggest issue is party control, which makes her look competent compared to others on the wanky debates, but there is little substance behind her headlines. Always has been. Backed up by the SNP's weak performance on education, hospitals, fake-PFI and so forth.

Both competent politicians of course, but that's not what we need to gain independence in my mind. Unless a few actual thinkers join the board of the next referendum then we'll be left with another campaign that centres around candidate rather than the goal and I think that will be Sturgeon's downfall.

Garlogie, it's fairly easy for a party leader to visit their supporters; they'll get very little worthwhile feedback there. Her "presence" wouldn't be felt by someone who wasn't pre-loaded with deference (not a criticism of you). I don't think the SNPs performance in government has been good enough and I think that will be equated with independence when the time again comes. I think we can do much better.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #213 on: December 16, 2019, 01:22:08 PM »
Joanna Cherry is who we need, not weirdo Sturgeon. Someone intelligent, credible and who has actual experience of the real world.
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Offline minijc

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #214 on: December 16, 2019, 01:32:40 PM »
It's quite fitting that a cricketer won award when it's up here in Aberdeen as more people, per capita play cricket up here than anywhere else in the UK.
Just fuck off and die.

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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #215 on: December 16, 2019, 01:38:16 PM »
It's quite fitting that a cricketer won award when it's up here in Aberdeen as more people, per capita play cricket up here than anywhere else in the UK.

More per capita voted Tory too. That also does make them bad people. Cricket (and Rugby) should be outlawed in the independent republic of Aberdonia.
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Offline minijc

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #216 on: December 16, 2019, 01:39:16 PM »
More per capita voted Tory too. That also does make them bad people. Cricket (and Rugby) should be outlawed in the independent republic of Aberdonia.
Cricket stays I'm sorry, had a great time a few years ago playing a match at Balmoral Castle.
Just fuck off and die.

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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #217 on: December 16, 2019, 01:44:33 PM »
Cricket stays I'm sorry, had a great time a few years ago playing a match at Balmoral Castle.

You won't get a choice I'm afraid. Democracy is selective. We need to educate our people properly and toadying is most definitely out of bounds. This includes respect for the English institutions and practises so Balmoral will be forcibly taken and sold to the highest bidder (Aberdonia passport holder only obviously), the proceeds going to the republic.

All our loons will be forced to play fitba and golf until such time it becomes apparent they're shite at it.
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Offline minijc

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #218 on: December 16, 2019, 01:49:25 PM »
You won't get a choice I'm afraid. Democracy is selective. We need to educate our people properly and toadying is most definitely out of bounds. This includes respect for the English institutions and practises so Balmoral will be forcibly taken and sold to the highest bidder (Aberdonia passport holder only obviously), the proceeds going to the republic.

All our loons will be forced to play fitba and golf until such time it becomes apparent they're shite at it.
I can get onboard with this actually, if I ever had a kid it would be pushed towards golf, so much money to be made if you've got what it takes and a great chance to see the world.
Just fuck off and die.

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Offline Garlogie_Granite

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Re: Brexit - Will it happen
« Reply #219 on: December 16, 2019, 03:28:19 PM »
There's more proof of her incapacity. Why would a potential national leader waste time on deadbeats like you? If she, and Salmond weren't oddball losers, we might have had a chance at independence.
Well because deadbeats like me got off our fat arses, and hit the streets to drum up voters, whereas fat arses like you spend your time spikkin shite in places like this, then criticise those who've made an effort, and made a difference.

That's the difference between you and me, I'm a do-er, you're just dour.  :thumbsup: