Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 13418 times)

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Offline RicoS321

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #40 on: March 14, 2020, 10:08:47 AM »
Good stuff TC, I'm fairly certain you'll just get thrown back in at the deep end without concern for registration! Good for you like, I wouldn't fancy it (but would do it if I had the ability).

Your saying that you don't believe that anywhere near 80% will catch it, but the herd strategy requires that somewhere near that figure get it. Without an NHS-overwhelming number getting it, the herd immunity won't work. In order for it to work, a large number of people must die at a 1% mortality rate. That's fairly fucked up.


Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #41 on: March 14, 2020, 11:30:06 AM »
Yep but it's why the government now actually want us to catch it in very large numbers....just spread out over months rather than weeks. The general idea being that once we've had it and recovered, we can get back to normal life sharpish. If 60% of us got it then for sure herd immunity hasn't been achieved per se...but at those levels any future spread will start to wane naturally and pretty rapidly to manageable levels until the vaccine is available. There are reports of some sufferers being reinfected and whilst this is concerning, it's in relatively small numbers and I actually think what will be proven eventually is that these aren't re-infections at all, rather that the person was acutely ill, seemed to improve as their body fought the infection off but actually didn't clear it fully and the virus re-established itself. This happens in a small number of any infective disease. Actually happens very commonly in elderly females who get bladder infections (although these are almost 100% bacterial infections) and no amount of antibiotics seems to shift the residual infection. Btw for the uninitiated....some people ask why don't antibiotics work against covid-19. The answer lies in the nature of what a virus is. Viruses are animal in nature. Bacteria are vegetable. Antibiotics only work for bacterial infections. Now we do have a limited number of anti-viral medications...the AIDS crisis in the 80s brought about their development fairly rapidly. But unlike most antibiotics which are effective against a number of different bacterial infections (theyre called broad spectrum antibiotics...the penicillin group being the most famous) , anti-virals on the whole seem to act more specifically. And theyre also a lot more expensive than antibiotics. Vaccination is therefore the best route to go down to eventually eliminate this rather than developing a new anti-viral which could take years.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #42 on: March 14, 2020, 11:32:18 AM »
Further posts from the virology and public health expert in our family;

"Watching the C4 news thing and frustrated that no one is pointing out why herd immunity is such a risky strategy for covid. Known coronaviruses only have lasting immunity for 3 months! So if everyone gets infected, then there will still be no herd immunity because people will start becoming susceptible again".

After my wife said - "I think the guy from America expressed his thoughts on herd immunity by his gestures alone 🤦🏻" - my daughter said - "He talked more about the infection rate, the thing that the London tropical medicine guy seems to be missing is the point that herd immunity can only be possible if people who are infected develop lasting immunity and we have no evidence for that being the case".


The bottom line is that we lay people don't understand this field and we need to rely on our leaders to protect us. Our "leaders", including the wank from the government on QT this week don't understand the situation either. They are quick to mention "the science" and naturally they acknowledge that they're being advised. So the WHOLE ISSUE relies on whether the advice that they're acting on is good or bad.

Like everything, there are differing opinions. In something as crucial as a pandemic, we can't afford to get it wrong. The UK is engaging a strategy that no other country is doing. Either our advisers to our government are cleverer than every other scientist on the planet or they're fools who are committing a major capital crime, for which the PM is ultimately culpable. Negligence is well defined in law and choosing to act on bad advice is no defence to a result of a million of our citizens being wiped out, should this come to pass. There would be something in law termed strict liability applying here, particularly when the PM has been advised strongly and vehemently by others not to follow this strategy and there is no precedent, medically or otherwise to choose to rely on it. It's a highly dangerous and risky strategy that may have dire consequences. I just hope his "Brexit thinking", born from a sense of ignorance and arrogance that "Great Britain is greater than everyone else" isn't behind him choosing to be the outlier here.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #43 on: March 14, 2020, 11:59:39 AM »
In the worst case scenario, that the UK's strategy results in our people suffering a massively disproportionate death rate, the biggest nail in Boris's coffin (legally speaking) will be the credentials of the people he chose to ignore. The guy Ryan at WHO didn't miss in his press conference yesterday. They have been screaming for action and he made some excellent points about inaction, leadership and human nature.

Three further reasons that concern me about the UK outlier strategy are as follows: -

Our PM himself. He has a track record of lying, he's a man on the make with zero integrity. He's also not very bright but skews and hides this by having learned oratory skills in his public schooling and university days. His blustering buffoon act is uniquely his, a disguise and a mask he wears but underneath this he is convinced of his own superiority, although his career and life record and especially his total lack of achievement (other than political office) proves otherwise.

Secondly, what our health professionals say. 99% of NHS staff know that we are underprepared. That's the percentage that the Channel 4 survey found and whilst TC may be in the 1%, it is fact that our front line staff have been measured for the protective suits (weeks ago in some cases) and have failed to get them, meanwhile infected patients are turning up at their doors.

Thirdly, the Irish company who have developed a self testing kit (which can tell in ten minutes) have been ignored by Boris. They've sent 20,000 to South Korea but we don't want to know. I don't get how identifying those amongst us who are infected already can NOT be a good thing. I fear this is one more concrete example of our government being unfit for purpose.
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Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #44 on: March 14, 2020, 12:04:37 PM »
Not entirely true about the known coronaviruses RS. The common cold and influenza are both coronaviruses for example.

Taking them individually...influenza is the more "serious". But there are relatively few strains of influenza, tending to keep themselves to fairly specific areas of the globe that don't spread in epidemic numbers to other areas ; compared to the common cold...which really are thousands  of different viruses that all produce roughly the same symptoms if infecting us. And all viruses have to mutate to survive. They'd die off if they didn't....once we have had one we have our antibodies that would prevent further infection. Now in the case of influenza....it takes around 8-12 years on average to fully mutate into a totally new strain. Until it does so...if you have had influenza you have the inherent resistance to it that means you cant get it again until its fully mutated. Flu vaccinations are made up of 3 strains of deactivated virus ....they always contain last years main infective strain plus a couple of others that virologists "best guess" that they think might take hold.

There's no common cold vaccine purely because there are just far too many viruses that cause it to make one both clinically and cost effective. Nevertheless..the common cold can and does claim lives every year. Just pretty much all within the elderly or people with serious co morbidities. We can certainy get 3 or 4 colds in a year...each one caused by a different strain of virus

Now we think that covid-19 is a similar acting virus to that which caused SARS back in the early 2000s (was it 2001 off the top of my head?) Still too early in the progression to tell....but if it is then the immunity will be much the same as it is for influenza. So years rather than months, possibly permanent,

Offline TheDeeDon

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #45 on: March 14, 2020, 12:10:51 PM »
In the worst case scenario, that the UK's strategy results in our people suffering a massively disproportionate death rate, the biggest nail in Boris's coffin (legally speaking) will be the credentials of the people he chose to ignore. The guy Ryan at WHO didn't miss in his press conference yesterday. They have been screaming for action and he made some excellent points about inaction, leadership and human nature.

Three further reasons that concern me about the UK outlier strategy are as follows: -

Our PM himself. He has a track record of lying, he's a man on the make with zero integrity. He's also not very bright but skews and hides this by having learned oratory skills in his public schooling and university days. His blustering buffoon act is uniquely his, a disguise and a mask he wears but underneath this he is convinced of his own superiority, although his career and life record and especially his total lack of achievement (other than political office) proves otherwise.

Secondly, what our health professionals say. 99% of NHS staff know that we are underprepared. That's the percentage that the Channel 4 survey found and whilst TC may be in the 1%, it is fact that our front line staff have been measured for the protective suits (weeks ago in some cases) and have failed to get them, meanwhile infected patients are turning up at their doors.

Thirdly, the Irish company who have developed a self testing kit (which can tell in ten minutes) have been ignored by Boris. They've sent 20,000 to South Korea but we don't want to know. I don't get how identifying those amongst us who are infected already can NOT be a good thing. I fear this is one more concrete example of our government being unfit for purpose.

I have to agree with what you have written. Boris being in charge is what scares me most. Even if it killed 90% of the population, he would still think he did great by saving 10% of us.

The NHS will do its best, but 10 years of austerity will really come back and bite us on the arse over the next few months.

Strong and stable government right enough!

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #46 on: March 14, 2020, 12:34:55 PM »
I have to agree with what you have written. Boris being in charge is what scares me most. Even if it killed 90% of the population, he would still think he did great by saving 10% of us.

The NHS will do its best, but 10 years of austerity will really come back and bite us on the arse over the next few months.

Strong and stable government right enough!

The NHS are vulnerable to collapse very quickly. For a start we have half the amount of beds and respirators available per capita than Italy, who are already making decisions on who to let die (plus they've reduced the exponential curve by following world advice and locking down). That's just one example of our underresourcing. Our staff are ill-equipped and already insufficient in number, exactly for the reason you said, austerity and cuts over the whole of the last decade.

The sickest joke is money before people. It won't be obvious to most, including those who are working and who have worked in the NHS that for 20+ years, our successive governments, in tandem with the corporates, have been attempting to privatise the NHS by stealth. Pilger's superb documentary was aired 3 months ago. By flooding the staff with non-productive middle management and increased administration and wasting money by over-charging for external services, the introduction of PFI's are being facilitated by a reduction of core resources, the worst examples being the rape by big pharma. My wife is forced to pay £60k per patient p.a. for the same treatments that Australia pays $250 p.a. for, from the same company, for the exact same drugs. And nobody in government cares and the bureaucrats aren't listening to the specialists and are ignoring our consultants, the best medically qualified people to know.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #47 on: March 14, 2020, 01:21:29 PM »
TC, your very first sentence proves that you are, like the rest of us including our leaders, not expert in this field.

"Flu is not caused by coronavirus. It is caused by influenza viridae (i.e. the flu virus). It is very distinct from coronavirus, though some aspects of them can be interesting to compare (e.g. flu also doesn’t have lasting immunity, which is why there are new flu vaccines each year). Common cold is caused by a few different viruses, some of which are coronaviruses. Also rhinoviruses (rhino meaning nose here, as it gives you a runny nose!) and a few others.

He is right that antibiotics do not work against viral infections because viruses and bacteria are totally different entities. The idea that viruses are animal based and bacteria are plant based is complete bollocks though, no clue where that came from. The first virus ever identified actually infected tobacco plants".


I could give you the whole text but what's the point?

"Some of this is reasonable speculation and some is bullshit and the fact that he is stating some nonsense as fact would make me doubt his credibility overall. It annoys me that he keeps talking with authority but is getting some things totally backwards. Not all of it mind you - some of it is right or nearly right. My assessment is that the person posting this has some knowledge on the topic, but they know far less than they think they do!"


Edit: you said "for the uninitiated" which expressly states that YOU are part of the initiated. A nurse manager (retired) is not a virologist. Stop trying to come across as knowing more than you do. It's ugly to witness and further, your inability to think and write with simplicity and clarity is hard work to endure.

« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 02:07:39 PM by rocket_scientist »
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Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #48 on: March 14, 2020, 03:02:42 PM »
Viruses are absolutely animal in nature. They can infect plants. They consist of DNA or RNA inside a protein wall. There is indeed some debate in the scientific community if viruses are truly a lifeform at all. They can only survive for any length of time and certainly only reproduce themselves by invading a host.

Bacteria are absolutely vegetable in nature. They can infect animals. They have a cell wall with cytotoplasm and can exist independently and reproduce without the necessity to infect a living host.

Would you agree that fungi are vegetable in nature? You are bound to agree that animals get fungal infections? Your missus has probably had thrush at some point in life. A vegetable infecting a human...who knew it?

And no I'm not a virologist. And I'll tell you my source for saying this. We had a lecture from Dr G. Petrie ex consultant chest physician in my 3rd year of General nurse trainng, 1987.....prior to placement in Chest Unit Cameron Hospital Windygates.

If you dont like what Ive posted...block me you boring irritating little cunt. 

« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 03:29:22 PM by Ten Caat »

Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #49 on: March 14, 2020, 03:03:17 PM »

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #50 on: March 14, 2020, 03:43:18 PM »
.
If you dont like what Ive posted...block me you boring irritating little cunt.

I don't like or dislike what you post. I'm just pointing out that you speak shite. On everything.

The reason you do is that you are uneducated. It takes a certain intellect and discipline to learn things, qualities you don't have. It eats you up - that you're unqualified in everything - but your attempts to present yourself as knowledgeable don't wash, as my daughter proved right now.

You showed great geopolitical nous with your racist rant re the Muslims in the Balkans. You show medical fuckwittery right now but most of all, it's your educational subnormality resulting in your craving to present yourself as better than you are that is as tragic as it is comic. Thae Greeks were clever cunts  :thumbsup:
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Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #51 on: March 14, 2020, 03:53:38 PM »

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #52 on: March 15, 2020, 12:37:49 PM »
One of the biggest handicaps facing the UK is the Health Minister. Hancock makes Hunt look good and amongst the doctors, Hunt was the least popular in living memory.

The problem with Hancock is that he's an exceptionally stupid man. He has today on the Marr show just ripped up what the chief government scientists have been saying as he has denied the herd immunity strategy.

Even though one poster on this thread seeks to absolve our equally stupid PM of any responsibility whatsoever, it was Boris who appointed Hancock. The South Korean Health Minister (interviewed by Marr by satellite) was an articulate clear thinker. Our government still don't know what they're doing and the contrast between her and Hancock could not have been more stark.

START TESTING PEOPLE FOR FUCK SAKE. It's beyond belief that we are this shambolic and incapable of coherence, both in strategy and communications.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #53 on: March 15, 2020, 04:27:29 PM »
67% increase in UK deaths from 21 to 35 announced just now.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 04:45:23 PM by rocket_scientist »
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Offline Kowalski

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Offline rocket_scientist

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Offline RicoS321

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #57 on: March 16, 2020, 10:10:26 AM »
How long before the UK government roll back their strategy and replace with one that every other country is doing, whilst pretending that was their idea all along? They've already consigned 1000s to die by not acting quick enough as part of their herd strategy which wasn't really their strategy at all it was just something Boris made sound like a strategy by saying it was a plan. The worrying thing for me is that the Scottish government seem to be following suit. There are enough experts saying that is a bucket of absolute horse shite that there should be more dissent from SNP ministers. If Jeremy Fuckstain Cunt can criticise his own government, we surely should be hearing more from our own ministers. Sturgeon will have a lot to answer for too at this rate, I don't think you can hide behind Westminster on something this important.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #58 on: March 16, 2020, 11:04:14 AM »
When the SFA know more than the government, you know we're in trouble!

They probably just followed other football authorities but in Nicola's case, I agree she should have broken rank. If you and I smelt shite, about something we had never heard of a week ago, in a field where we have no knowledge and expertise whatsoever, then every paid politician - who's job it is to protect us - should also have been questioning. The World Health Organisation were directly addressing the UK, other countries were halting the exponential nature of the natural growth curve and we had thousands of our own experts screaming No. Even a non-clinician was ranting on QT last week (although he at least had experience of office in public health).

Critical thinking path for sane people; Allow people to get sick, many turn up at hospitals, NHS can't cope, gross deaths.

As Fontaines D.C. would say, is it too real for ya?
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #59 on: March 16, 2020, 11:13:29 AM »
A further tragic indictment of the government's absolute incompetence thus far was their plea for our manufacturing industry to make respirators. A sane government would fund the extra capacity requirements of existing respirator manufacturers and would know that car makers and others, who have never produced highly specialised medical equipment are incapable of getting up to speed in the required time. One of the biggest acts of gross stupidity in political history.

Edit: NHS Grampian talk today; the one case in the Shell office in Aberdeen did not infect any colleague, nor did any of his family get it.

This virus can be contained if we don't cough on one another and exercise strict hygiene... but it would help if we know if we have it or not. There is no sensible reason not to test and failing to lock down is negligent beyond belief.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 12:16:27 PM by rocket_scientist »
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