Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 13419 times)

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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2020, 10:03:56 AM »
She lost me here (in the family chat): -

Mum is right! RNA is a bit like DNA - genetic information. But in human cells RNA kind of ‘copies’ DNA and transmits information from your genome to the parts of the cells that makes proteins/ perform other tasks (that’s maybe a bit simplistic, there are lots of types of RNA that do lots of things). DNA is very highly regulated because if there’s a mistake in your genes, it can have dire consequences. RNA is less regulated cause the occasional mistake/ incorrect protein to come out of it isnt likely to have a noticeable effect. Some viruses have RNA genomes which means they can mutate much more quickly than those with DNA ones
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Offline Kowalski

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2020, 06:21:24 PM »
It’s all quite something. I think I can understand the current UK “plan” if it is all about trying to minimise the effect this will have on the NHS.

But I did find this to be a good read:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2020, 07:42:02 PM »
My daughter posted up that article last night, well, at 1 a.m. but I hadn't got round to reading it until now. Having glanced through some of the comments that the article attracted, I'm going to be interested in her take on it. The thing I took from it the most is the need for swift action, like immediately.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2020, 07:58:18 PM »
As there's no live sport to gorge on tonight, I recommend the Channel 4 News Special starting at 8 pm. Are we doing enough?
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2020, 08:10:05 PM »
I didn't understand this post when she said it;

Boris is wrong about his herd immunity take, it will put more people at risk and we have no evidence to suggest that people have lasting immunity to it so unlikely to be effective

Now that they're talking about this exact subject on Channel 4, I'm inclined not to believe the balloon on TV just now who's job it is to know about this shit.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #25 on: March 13, 2020, 08:18:42 PM »
Wow! Tomas Pueyo, the author of that article on air from the US arguing strongly with the studio scientist!
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Offline RicoS321

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #26 on: March 13, 2020, 09:47:14 PM »
I didn't understand this post when she said it;

Boris is wrong about his herd immunity take, it will put more people at risk and we have no evidence to suggest that people have lasting immunity to it so unlikely to be effective

Now that they're talking about this exact subject on Channel 4, I'm inclined not to believe the balloon on TV just now who's job it is to know about this shit.

How could it work? Surely herd immunity requires global herd immunity? I don't get it. Unless we're closing all borders until there's a vaccine? Is this nae yer basic smallpox training? I'm probably missing something.

Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #27 on: March 13, 2020, 10:11:09 PM »
Tbf no one knows how this is going to pan out. The herd immunity theory is reasonable and yes there have been reports of sufferers becoming re-infected. However I suspect the actual truth might be that they hadn't really been recovered at all, just that their condition had improved somewhat and felt ok but the virus hadn't fully been eliminated from their body and as a result suffered a relapse.

It's way too late to stop this now anyway. By the time a sufferer starts to feel unwell, they've already been infectious for between 24-72 hours already and have probably infected 5 others minimum. A vaccine is being rushed through...several labs have one and it's in the animal testing stage but don't expect it to be available for at least 6 months, more likely nearer 12. Still a remarkably fast time to get a new product out on the market.

Deaths are inevitable in fairly large numbers but will mainly be in the elderly/physically infirm demographic. A few younger, utterly unexpected deaths will also occur but not in any significant numbers. Influenza claims a few "healthy" people every year. For most of us it will just be like a bad cold but there will be significant numbers of folk with pre-existing conditions that will require hospitalisation....respiratory tract diseases mainly but also diabetics, heart disease sufferers etc. What the NHS should be doing now is cancelling all elective surgery, except for those that are for life threatening conditions (cancer and certain heart ops mainly)....your hip replacements, varicose veins etc can all wait 6 months. Get the patients that are in hospital discharged the instant they are fit. Bed blockers should be discharged to the first available nursing home bed.....tough luck if it isn't close at hand to relatives. They can be moved into a closer home at a later date.

Stock up on cheap paracetamol and cough linctus. Don't waste your cash on expensive branded shit like lemsip. The biggest effects this pandemic will cause are economic. This is what governments are truly concerned about. The longer it lasts, more and more businesses will go bust. It will actually be quite "entertaining" watching holiday companies and airline go tits up fairly rapidly because of this.

Strap yourselves in. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.



Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #28 on: March 13, 2020, 10:17:01 PM »
How could it work? Surely herd immunity requires global herd immunity? I don't get it. Unless we're closing all borders until there's a vaccine? Is this nae yer basic smallpox training? I'm probably missing something.

True herd immunity needs about 90-95% of the population inoculated (or naturally immune) to guarantee a communicable disease threat is contained. The numbers being bandied about are suggesting that if 60% of catch covid-19 and recover then we should have some sort of herd immunity. At those levels, the disease will still spread but should be manageable for some semblance of normality to return until the vaccine becomes generally available....as ive said before...its at least 6 months down the line, more likely nearer 12.

Offline RicoS321

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2020, 11:22:55 PM »
True herd immunity needs about 90-95% of the population inoculated (or naturally immune) to guarantee a communicable disease threat is contained. The numbers being bandied about are suggesting that if 60% of catch covid-19 and recover then we should have some sort of herd immunity. At those levels, the disease will still spread but should be manageable for some semblance of normality to return until the vaccine becomes generally available....as ive said before...its at least 6 months down the line, more likely nearer 12.

"Some sort" of herd immunity? Surely there's either immunity or not? It suggests that whilst those 60% are gaining their immunity, those not immune could, at worst, die. It's not like you know who's going to be immune in advance. You also don't know how the remaining 40% will act or who they will interact with. You also have foreign people, who aren't part of this ridiculous experiment, still coming in and out of the country. It just sounds like utter horseshit.

Offline scotfree

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #30 on: March 13, 2020, 11:44:16 PM »
Queensland Health has come out and said that they expect 25% of the population will come down with the virus. I was thinking that that was rather low. But when I think about it 25% of the Queensland population will be around 1.2 Million. They also said that 80% of the people who catch the virus would have only mild symptoms. So if I've not fucked up my maths that means around 300,000 are going to have a hard time. And with around a 10% fatality rate that means 30,000 fatalities. 

We had 264 deaths from the Flu last year.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #31 on: March 14, 2020, 12:00:39 AM »
How could it work? Surely herd immunity requires global herd immunity? I don't get it. Unless we're closing all borders until there's a vaccine? Is this nae yer basic smallpox training? I'm probably missing something.

You're asking the wrong dude, dude. The first I'd ever heard the term "herd immunity" was in a text today and the second time I heard it was at 8.10 pm tonight on Channel 4.

It appears that the poster above and Boris know all about it however but I'm with you, my instinct is screaming total horseshit.

Four specific reasons to support my instinct on this point - other than the obvious consistency of instinct (over half a century experience in my case) - is that the guy arguing for it was a tit, Boris is a cunt, the guy who wrote a convincing argument was dead against it and finally, I trust my daughter, her intellect, experience and judgement in this particular field. And fifthly, good old fashioned integrity and common sense, which is none too common of course but in "leaders" like Boris (and Trump), is completely void.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #32 on: March 14, 2020, 12:02:41 AM »
If I could isolate right now, I would but since my wife will inevitably be redeployed to the front line of the NHS, I'm at equal high risk. The UK needs to lock down right now. The guy on Question Time last night was bang on, despite Fiona's best BBC efforts to shut him up.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #33 on: March 14, 2020, 12:12:34 AM »
Queensland Health has come out and said that they expect 25% of the population will come down with the virus. I was thinking that that was rather low. But when I think about it 25% of the Queensland population will be around 1.2 Million. They also said that 80% of the people who catch the virus would have only mild symptoms. So if I've not fucked up my maths that means around 300,000 are going to have a hard time. And with around a 10% fatality rate that means 30,000 fatalities. 

We had 264 deaths from the Flu last year.

24,000 fatalities @ 80% mild
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Offline scotfree

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Offline manc_don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #35 on: March 14, 2020, 05:13:20 AM »
Heard about that yesterday , hard to believe, but then again I don’t trust the yanks as far as I could throw them.

Nz has become the tightest in terms of their border control. All those entering from outside Nz (pacific island excluded) will have to self quarantine for 14 days . Starting tomorrow.


Offline RicoS321

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #36 on: March 14, 2020, 08:15:40 AM »
You're asking the wrong dude, dude. The first I'd ever heard the term "herd immunity" was in a text today and the second time I heard it was at 8.10 pm tonight on Channel 4.

It appears that the poster above and Boris know all about it however but I'm with you, my instinct is screaming total horseshit

To be fair to ten cast, I thought he was explaining the decision rather than agreeing with it.

Anyway, I've thought some more and I still don't get it. These guys are scientists, so where the fuck is their published workings? I'm all for listening to experts, of course, but they shouldn't be immune to questioning or scrutiny (not even herd immune).

They're suggesting that 60% infections - but perhaps as high as 70% (wtf???) - would be required. If ~13% (based on statista 2018) are 70 or over and probably a few percent more classed as high risk, then they''re pretty much saying that everyone that can conceivably survive it not only needs to get it in order for the plan to work, but should be morally compelled to do so. Simultaneously, they're expected to diligently wash their hands and also isolate if they get the illness, thus preventing others from joining the herd immunity herd. But making sure you only speak to 'al cunts via the internet.

The thing that gets me is that we're asking the elderly and ill to isolate from the young. We're not all going to do it. It's the one instance where we all literally could have been "in it together", and we're choosing not to. I think we'll look back on this and see that we've performed a giant form of social/age cleansing. I think that we'll (and the US) be held up as the uncaring, selfish society that we are/have become. It'll be couched in denial and nationalism of course, but we'll all know that we sentenced our most vulnerable to death in order not to panic the markets or some fuck. Because even if you thought this herd bollocks had any chance of working, you'd err on the side of caution.

Whilst businesses and sporting bodies will do the government's job mostly for them on this one by telling employees to work at home or cancelling events, the government is needed to make sure folk get paid, mortgage or rent payments suspended and such like, so it's absolutely vital that those in charge get their shit together. They're probably genuinely concerned that the veil of the economic system is thrown off for all to see, where you simply can just say "nobody has to pay their mortgage today" and it happens, and that there is - after all - a magic money tree.

Offline TheDeeDon

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #37 on: March 14, 2020, 08:21:23 AM »
I know nothing about how it will all pan out, but don't trust the mop headed idiot in the slightest and am quite sure he is hoping to see large numbers of people dead from this.  The interesting bit of this for me is how uncomfortable the guy from Public Health England looks when speaking alongside Boris. Looks like a man not used to telling large scale lies.

Also, do we really want to hear from experts with titles? I for one don't, these guys don't get their titles for nothing, they get them for going along with the spin the are told too. We seem to ve heading in a direction away from other countries who have had some success with the measures they have taken.

I feel the economic impact will be worse than the impact to the public health and could take us years to recover.

Offline scotfree

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #38 on: March 14, 2020, 08:43:35 AM »


"If you can't support us when we lose or draw, don't support us when we win"
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Offline Ten Caat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #39 on: March 14, 2020, 09:44:51 AM »
I absolutely wasn't saying I'm agreeing with anything, but to put any blame on Boris for what is happening is also pretty ridiculous. He's a journalist turned politician. He's taking his instructions from the Chief Medical Officers of the various constituent countries of the UK.....with no professional insight into it what else can he do but just trust it and hope for the best.

When I  said "some form of herd immunity"....as I stated before....true herd immunity requires about 90-95% (preferably the upper) to be inoculated or have some acquired prior immunity (can be gained by suffering an infection and recovering) to a communicable disease to guarantee that mass outbreaks cannot happen. Computerised projections cast the worst case scenario in the UK that 80% of the population could catch this thing. Why? because it's a totally new disease to humans. There is no current inoculation available to prevent it (although various labs have created one, its being tested on animals right now). As with the last world infection crisis...the AIDS epidemic of the mid 80s...there will be a derogation from normal testing regimes which generally take 3 years or so to bring a new medicine to the market in order to get this vaccination out there asap. ^ months minimum, more likely nearer 12 though. Now I don't believe for a minute that 80% of us will catch this. But right now with nothing to treat it effectively it will for sure infect swathes of us. Those who require hospitalisation right now are purely treated on a symptomatic support regime....to make that simple, all we can do at present is attend to the symptoms and hope that it keeps a person alive long enough until the person's own immune system creates enough antibodies by itself to fight the disease off.

And RS....I'm a fairly recently retired nurse manager by profession. I have more insight into it than Joe Public for sure but don't claim to be an expert. I am standing by to be recalled to the front-line as this will put mahoosive pressure on the NHS as your wife will know. The Italian Health service (which btw is far better resourced than ours) it at breaking point. All leave has been cancelled there, in the north where the concentration of infections have taken place medical and paramedical staff are starting to drop like flies through sheer exhaustion. How the gvt deals with bring back retired nurses isn't quite as simple as it sounds. We have to re-register evry 3 years, self certifying that we have completed at least the minimum required professional updates/training. Ive retired so let my registration lapse at its last renewal. I obviously cannot meet the updates stipulation...and I certainly aint paying to do a refresher course (nor my registration fees) even if they could organise such courses for people like me at short notice. If the worst comes to the worst they'll have to derogate from this and just bring us back regardless. Im sure most of us retirees would be happy to help but not to pay through the nose for the privelige….