Author Topic: Betting  (Read 11420 times)

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Offline kiriakovisthenewstrachan

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Betting
« on: March 15, 2018, 10:48:43 AM »
This site definitely needs a regular betting section so here goes for a starter......

After last night's performance, Barcelona to win the Champions League 4/1.  They will take some stopping.



Offline BobbyBiscuit

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Re: Betting
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2018, 11:43:55 AM »
This site definitely needs a regular betting section so here goes for a starter......

I've tried over the years, but very few takers.

And I also got depressed at posting losing bets all the time  ;)
It's not about escaping. It's about getting out with a bit of dignity.
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Offline BigAl

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Re: Betting
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2018, 11:57:17 AM »
I've tried over the years, but very few takers.

And I also got depressed at posting losing bets all the time  ;)

Your second line is exactly why I don't post regarding betting.
Sure SeeBass would be up for it as he seems to enjoy a flutter or six ;)
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2018, 02:25:00 PM »
A subject I have interest in. I hadn't put on a fitba bet for a number of  years until late December. I was picking up my daughter on Boxing Day at closing time from a pub I used to frequent and as she had just got a fresh drink, I caught up and chatted to some of her pals then retired through to the bar to wait for her and finish my pint. Bumped into an old mate who is big into gambling and we decided to pick one win each and put on a double with me being the "account manager". He offered some cash but I said no point, we are doing this to win, not lose.

This is how to beat the bookies; bet with their money, not yours. And keep a spreadsheet.

I started with a £2.50 double but remember that the Xmas/New Year (and January actually) always throw up some wild results (as does the last 2/3 weeks of the season, October/November and February/March being the most predictable months in a fitba year). After 8 doubles to 27th Jan with gently increasing stakes, we only had two winners and were £17.25 down. From 3rd Feb until Tuesday, we both picked 8 winners out of the last 9 resulting in 7 double wins and an overall balance of +£129.69. On Sunday we staked £70 on Juve and Atletico to return £116.67, a factor of only 1.67 and a profit of £46.67 (they were 2/9 & 4/11).

The element of competition between us helps the cause, he's on 12/18 and I'm 11 winners. This Saturday we've got £60 on Valencia & Juventus, which will return £109.20 hopefully. Now that we've introduced a fourfold - 2 picks each - I'm confident that we will hit my target of a grand each at the end of the season, especially now that we've opened up the picks to all markets (starting last Sunday) rather than just the 8 divisions in Scotland & England.

Fools doing 75/100+ to 1 accas are pissing money away. The bookies win every season, every bookie. The only way to beat them is with a disciplined strategy. Accrington Stanley are my second pick this Saturday, good value at 8/11. I've got Dortmund as my main horse for Sunday.
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Offline kiriakovisthenewstrachan

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Re: Betting
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2018, 08:59:49 AM »
I love a challenge Rocket so keen to try your system.

My first £2.50 double this weekend is going on Schalke to win away to Wolfsburg and Hearts to beat Thistle at Tynecastle.  Both are 23/20 shots which if successful will get me back £11.56.   :thumbsup:

So tempted to back Tiger Woods to win the Arnold Palmer this weekend but picking a golf tournament winner is a bit of a lottery.  He's 13/2 after a good first round.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2018, 09:38:29 AM »
I love a challenge Rocket so keen to try your system.

My first £2.50 double this weekend is going on Schalke to win away to Wolfsburg and Hearts to beat Thistle at Tynecastle.  Both are 23/20 shots which if successful will get me back £11.56.   :thumbsup:

So tempted to back Tiger Woods to win the Arnold Palmer this weekend but picking a golf tournament winner is a bit of a lottery.  He's 13/2 after a good first round.

I have Schalke in a single this weekend, also at 23/20. I picked Hearts in our first double, 19/10 to beat Hibs but it finished 0-0. I've never picked such long odds since and given that our strategy is to pick nailed on winners - we call it NOD, Nailed On Doubles - I was being a greedy smart arse at that price. The bet on Tuesday that brought an amazing run to an end were both 11/10 shots, my Edinburgh City getting sunk by a late Cowdenbeath equaliser.

It's not a "system" as such. We just believe that we know enough about football, form and momentum in this game that we can pick a winner more often than not. It's the management of the stakes that's key. We only lost £15 on Tuesday but would have won over £50.

Getting back into fitba betting, my rule of thumb is "going for value" and therefore I've got a single on Cardiff at 5/2 this weekend and most of my bets are singles followed by doubles and the odd treble (Rapid Vienna, Wolves and Valencia this week).

Good luck. Your 4.62 factor (return) is longer odds than we've ever put on in our NOD. My mate went Man City at 1/4 away in our first bet, a 1-0 win but irrelevant as I picked a loser.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2018, 10:28:47 AM »
I've tried over the years, but very few takers.

And I also got depressed at posting losing bets all the time  ;)

I reckon you probably know the game as good as anyone so here's a no brainer proposal for you.

Pick a winner this Saturday from any division in Europe. A nailed on winner. I'm going Juve away to Spal, my first away pick actually in 19 consecutive doubles.

I will put money on your pick and mine and at the end of the season, will transfer half our collective winnings into your bank. Further, I indemnify you against any losses that our NOD's might have. In other words, I'll take the whole risk.

I will prove that two guys who know about football can beat the bookie and given that I trust your judgement, I'm prepared to put my money where my mouth is.

Given that you recommended The Hanoi Bike Shop - a place I've recommended to many others since - this will be a good way of saying thanks.

Your first pick this Saturday is?
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Offline kiriakovisthenewstrachan

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Re: Betting
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2018, 11:10:30 AM »
Rocket, I must admit I have never paid that close attention to leagues outside of Scotland and england although I watch loads of UK fitba.

In your experience are you more likely to get nailed on wins in the likes of Spain, Germany and Italy than in our leagues?  ie, are there very rarely major upsets in those leagues because the top teams are so better than the teams at the bottom?

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2018, 11:25:53 AM »
Rocket, I must admit I have never paid that close attention to leagues outside of Scotland and england although I watch loads of UK fitba.

In your experience are you more likely to get nailed on wins in the likes of Spain, Germany and Italy than in our leagues?  ie, are there very rarely major upsets in those leagues because the top teams are so better than the teams at the bottom?

Good question but not sure I've got an answer. When the kids were small, I used to spend an extraordinary amount of time studying football for betting purposes. I made a profit every season for 8/9 years in a row until a famous dumb ass bet that lost me the will to live almost, fuelled by drink and in a league I never bet in, emptying my biggest balance in my favourite bookie account. I stopped betting then and only just got back into it these last 2.5 months.

When our kids were very small, I couldn't afford foreign holidays but by the time they were in primary school, my bookie winnings were paying for an annual holiday. But I worked out that I was investing 25+ hours per week to earn the equivalent of less than the minimum wage so it was easy to walk away after the big drop. In my experience it doesn't matter what league we bet in. It's ALL about finding value. The bookies do make mistakes and I love it when I pick a team when the earliest bookies post who's odds come in as kick off approaches. I put a lot of my singles on a week before e.g. Cardiff are 2/1 now on the same bookie I got 5/2 on. But that's not nailed on, just a good value bet. You have to make your own selections but if doing multiples e.g. doubles, it's all about risk management. 4 or 5 to 1's lose more than win and beware of odds on aways. A mate of mine (who used to work in a bookies) proved that laying against EVERY odds on away nets a profit. I know the hard way as I thought he was speaking shite but he didn't even take my money when I was £200 or £300 down on our spreadsheet.
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Offline BobbyBiscuit

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Re: Betting
« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2018, 12:46:55 PM »
I reckon you probably know the game as good as anyone so here's a no brainer proposal for you.

Pick a winner this Saturday from any division in Europe. A nailed on winner. I'm going Juve away to Spal, my first away pick actually in 19 consecutive doubles.

I will put money on your pick and mine and at the end of the season, will transfer half our collective winnings into your bank. Further, I indemnify you against any losses that our NOD's might have. In other words, I'll take the whole risk.

I will prove that two guys who know about football can beat the bookie and given that I trust your judgement, I'm prepared to put my money where my mouth is.

Given that you recommended The Hanoi Bike Shop - a place I've recommended to many others since - this will be a good way of saying thanks.

Your first pick this Saturday is?

Thanks Rocket, that's nice of you to say so and a kind gesture.

Feeling the pressure now right enough!! I'll have a look at the fixtures and get back to you  :thumbsup:
It's not about escaping. It's about getting out with a bit of dignity.
If you're in it, don't fucking moan about it, make it yours and leave a mark

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2018, 12:57:58 PM »
Feeling the pressure now right enough!! I'll have a look at the fixtures and get back to you  :thumbsup:

Forget the odds. It's all about picking winners. I'll manage the stakes accordingly.

And since we will do this publicly for the next two months, there is pressure... for you to pick more winners than me and vice versa.

I noticed PSG were 1/14 to win at home this week. That's not value. That's a price only a fool would take, usually in a long acca. As it happened, they scored early, had a man sent off before half an hour, scored a 2nd and finished 2-1 so only just did it.

On the other hand, NI were 33/1 to beat England 20 years ago. In a 3 horse race (win, lose, draw), that was an exceptional price for value. My quid on it more than paid for the night in the pub watching it unfold.
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Offline kiriakovisthenewstrachan

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Re: Betting
« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2018, 01:27:31 PM »
Motherwell's odds are as long as 11/1 to beat Celtic on Sunday, massive odds for two teams in the same division.

Seem to recall Tam Cowan eluding to the fact that their recent record against Celtic is honking but (like ours) it surely has to come to an end sometime?

 

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2018, 01:58:57 PM »
Motherwell's odds are as long as 11/1 to beat Celtic on Sunday, massive odds for two teams in the same division.

Seem to recall Tam Cowan eluding to the fact that their recent record against Celtic is honking but (like ours) it surely has to come to an end sometime?

11/1 is enormous for the home win. I'm not tempted to put a small punt at 8 or 9/1, which is the best I can see on my online accounts but for 11's, I might put on £2 or so.
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Offline kiriakovisthenewstrachan

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Re: Betting
« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2018, 02:06:08 PM »
Betfair  :thumbsup:

Offline BobbyBiscuit

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Re: Betting
« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2018, 02:20:18 PM »
Forget the odds. It's all about picking winners. I'll manage the stakes accordingly.

And since we will do this publicly for the next two months, there is pressure... for you to pick more winners than me and vice versa.


Ok, let's go with Accrington Stanley to win at home v Forest Green Rovers to kick us off.
It's not about escaping. It's about getting out with a bit of dignity.
If you're in it, don't fucking moan about it, make it yours and leave a mark

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #15 on: March 16, 2018, 02:34:30 PM »
Ok, let's go with Accrington Stanley to win at home v Forest Green Rovers to kick us off.

£7.50 staked. 17/20 for AS so that price has drifted but Juve into 3/10 (got them at 4/11 earlier in the week, before they beat Atalanta).

Good price double to start. Pays 2.4 = £10.53 profit if it wins.

I actually already had a double on those two so happy to see that pick of yours  :thumbsup:
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Offline BobbyBiscuit

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Re: Betting
« Reply #16 on: March 16, 2018, 02:52:31 PM »
Nice one, thanks. Looking forward to it!
It's not about escaping. It's about getting out with a bit of dignity.
If you're in it, don't fucking moan about it, make it yours and leave a mark

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2018, 02:57:24 PM »
Nice one, thanks. Looking forward to it!

There's a big card on Sunday too actually. Have a look and see if there's anything you fancy as a nailed on winner.

This is a good site for studying form: -

http://www.livescores.com
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Offline BobbyBiscuit

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Re: Betting
« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2018, 04:43:30 PM »
There's a big card on Sunday too actually. Have a look and see if there's anything you fancy as a nailed on winner.

This is a good site for studying form: -

http://www.livescores.com

I will do, most of my successes this season have been via Serie A.

Are we restricted to the WDW market, or can we venture into other markets?
It's not about escaping. It's about getting out with a bit of dignity.
If you're in it, don't fucking moan about it, make it yours and leave a mark

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2018, 05:01:56 PM »
I will do, most of my successes this season have been via Serie A.

Are we restricted to the WDW market, or can we venture into other markets?

Any fitba you like, as long as I can find it in 365 etc.
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