A subject I have interest in. I hadn't put on a fitba bet for a number of years until late December. I was picking up my daughter on Boxing Day at closing time from a pub I used to frequent and as she had just got a fresh drink, I caught up and chatted to some of her pals then retired through to the bar to wait for her and finish my pint. Bumped into an old mate who is big into gambling and we decided to pick one win each and put on a double with me being the "account manager". He offered some cash but I said no point, we are doing this to win, not lose.
This is how to beat the bookies; bet with their money, not yours. And keep a spreadsheet.
I started with a £2.50 double but remember that the Xmas/New Year (and January actually) always throw up some wild results (as does the last 2/3 weeks of the season, October/November and February/March being the most predictable months in a fitba year). After 8 doubles to 27th Jan with gently increasing stakes, we only had two winners and were £17.25 down. From 3rd Feb until Tuesday, we both picked 8 winners out of the last 9 resulting in 7 double wins and an overall balance of +£129.69. On Sunday we staked £70 on Juve and Atletico to return £116.67, a factor of only 1.67 and a profit of £46.67 (they were 2/9 & 4/11).
The element of competition between us helps the cause, he's on 12/18 and I'm 11 winners. This Saturday we've got £60 on Valencia & Juventus, which will return £109.20 hopefully. Now that we've introduced a fourfold - 2 picks each - I'm confident that we will hit my target of a grand each at the end of the season, especially now that we've opened up the picks to all markets (starting last Sunday) rather than just the 8 divisions in Scotland & England.
Fools doing 75/100+ to 1 accas are pissing money away. The bookies win every season, every bookie. The only way to beat them is with a disciplined strategy. Accrington Stanley are my second pick this Saturday, good value at 8/11. I've got Dortmund as my main horse for Sunday.
