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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by RicoS321 on Today at 04:40:36 PM »
You'd lay a bit off, I done it with Gary Anderson when he won the worlds for the first time, effectively took my stake out but in general for football if you are waiting on one game and you want to get out you'd be best laying them off on the exchange you'll get more than you would from a cashout.

By "laying them off" and "effectively took my stake out" what do you mean?

If I have £10 on the dons who are winning 2-0 with 35 minutes to go. I'm projected to win £15, but cash out is offering me just £12.50 at this point. I'm convinced that Shinnie is going to get sent off and we'll capitulate as I'm at the game and in a position to judge it better (in my opinion, obviously).

Right now, I'm guaranteed £12.50 (by taking the offer), correct? (rhetorical)

I've made the decision to cash out so I need to get a better return than £12.50 by going elsewhere (and not cashing out)?

Or are you saying that if I put £0.50 on the dons to win then and £1.50 on the dons to draw elsewhere then I will very likely get better odds than 29/1 for the opposition win and 29/3 for the draw (obviously I'd have to make both bets)?

Do you have a formula for this type of calculation? I can do this, but it only tests my odds:

(-a+(a x Oa x Wa)) + (-b+(b x Ob x Wb)) +(-c+(c x Oc x Wc)) >= Z - a 

where a is stake 1, b is stake 2 and c is stake 3. Oa/b/c is odds and Wa/b/c is true or false win = 1 lose = 0
Z is cashout winnings

for my example:

Stake1 wins:
(-10+ (10 x 3/2 x 1)) + (-0.5 + (0.50 x  29/1 x 0)) + (-1.5 + (0 x 29/3 x 0)) = £3 > £2.50

Stake2 wins:
(-10+ (10 x 3/2 x 0)) + (-0.5 + (0.50 x  29/1 x 1)) + (-1.5 + (0 x 29/3 x 0)) = £2.50 >= £2.50

Stake3 wins:
(-10+ (10 x 3/2 x 0)) + (-0.5 + (0.50 x  29/1 x 0)) + (-1.5 + (0 x 29/3 x 1)) = £2.50 >= £2.50


Am I right in thinking that we never really look for certain odds, we simply test those odds? In the above, I simply add the odds for a draw and a win from all my bookies and if all 3 stakes return true then I put the additional two bets on the draw and the loss and leave my win bet with the existing bookie? Thus I have returned greater than or equal to my cashout regardless of result.

Interesting stuff min. I like it.

How likely is it that those odds will exist elsewhere though, is it even close? Or is cash out always easier because they base the cashout on other bookies' odds on the draw and loss? What I mean is, is the cash out just an enticement for the uneasy gambler (so gives a shite return) or a is it aimed at the professional by calculating the other odds in the market and straying little either side of that?
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Football Chat / Re: Hearts Financial Results
« Last post by kiriakovisthenewstrachan on Today at 04:27:22 PM »
Hearts are in a pretty stable financial position now.

£2M of the donation was to help with the redevelopment which is a non-recurring event and the other £1M was towards the wage bill.  Assume that this is to help with the high wages whilst Naismith is on loan.  Their new stand will bring in additional income and they get good crowds.  No danger of being in trouble.
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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by rocket_scientist on Today at 03:16:56 PM »
Millions like me that have won enough money to not worry about doing a proper job for a few years whilst betting and watching sports every day, yup, millions.

I've not met any of you millions.

Out of interest, how much have YOU earned in profit from betting? It must be a lot. Hat off to you. You're the one who obviously knows best.
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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by minijc on Today at 02:11:10 PM »
I have always known this. It's just ugly watching the fools getting parted with their money and them being so stubborn and desperate to pretend that they can think properly that they won't listen to good counsel.
Aye, aright bud, you know best.
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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by rocket_scientist on Today at 02:09:35 PM »
And you need to realise that you don't know everything.

I have always known this. It's just ugly watching the fools getting parted with their money and them being so stubborn and desperate to pretend that they can think properly that they won't listen to good counsel.
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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by minijc on Today at 02:04:51 PM »
You need to get a job mini.
And you need to realise that you don't know everything.
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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by rocket_scientist on Today at 02:03:11 PM »
You need to get a job mini.
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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by minijc on Today at 01:58:30 PM »
Before you go, explain - in English - what you meant by my claiming a bet has no value and where you and I differed?
It was when I said that bookies never give you the real true value of your bet in the cash out offer.
We already agree that the bookies use ratings and algorithms to set prices.

What you claimed was that pro punters had their own ratings and algorithms.
I'm not claiming, it's a fact.
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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by rocket_scientist on Today at 01:57:17 PM »
Haha you are absolutely clueless, no one is trying to sell me anything, can you tell me how a bookmakers gets their price for the weekend?  I'll give you two clues, algorithms and ratings made up of stats.

We already agree that the bookies use ratings and algorithms to set prices.

What you claimed was that pro punters had their own ratings and algorithms.
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Off Topic / Re: Betting
« Last post by rocket_scientist on Today at 01:55:14 PM »
Before you go, explain - in English - what you meant by my claiming a bet has no value and where you and I differed?
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