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Main Board => Off Topic => Topic started by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 15, 2018, 10:48:43 AM

Title: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 15, 2018, 10:48:43 AM
This site definitely needs a regular betting section so here goes for a starter......

After last night's performance, Barcelona to win the Champions League 4/1.  They will take some stopping.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 15, 2018, 11:43:55 AM
This site definitely needs a regular betting section so here goes for a starter......

I've tried over the years, but very few takers.

And I also got depressed at posting losing bets all the time  ;)
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BigAl on March 15, 2018, 11:57:17 AM
I've tried over the years, but very few takers.

And I also got depressed at posting losing bets all the time  ;)

Your second line is exactly why I don't post regarding betting.
Sure SeeBass would be up for it as he seems to enjoy a flutter or six ;)
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 15, 2018, 02:25:00 PM
A subject I have interest in. I hadn't put on a fitba bet for a number of  years until late December. I was picking up my daughter on Boxing Day at closing time from a pub I used to frequent and as she had just got a fresh drink, I caught up and chatted to some of her pals then retired through to the bar to wait for her and finish my pint. Bumped into an old mate who is big into gambling and we decided to pick one win each and put on a double with me being the "account manager". He offered some cash but I said no point, we are doing this to win, not lose.

This is how to beat the bookies; bet with their money, not yours. And keep a spreadsheet.

I started with a £2.50 double but remember that the Xmas/New Year (and January actually) always throw up some wild results (as does the last 2/3 weeks of the season, October/November and February/March being the most predictable months in a fitba year). After 8 doubles to 27th Jan with gently increasing stakes, we only had two winners and were £17.25 down. From 3rd Feb until Tuesday, we both picked 8 winners out of the last 9 resulting in 7 double wins and an overall balance of +£129.69. On Sunday we staked £70 on Juve and Atletico to return £116.67, a factor of only 1.67 and a profit of £46.67 (they were 2/9 & 4/11).

The element of competition between us helps the cause, he's on 12/18 and I'm 11 winners. This Saturday we've got £60 on Valencia & Juventus, which will return £109.20 hopefully. Now that we've introduced a fourfold - 2 picks each - I'm confident that we will hit my target of a grand each at the end of the season, especially now that we've opened up the picks to all markets (starting last Sunday) rather than just the 8 divisions in Scotland & England.

Fools doing 75/100+ to 1 accas are pissing money away. The bookies win every season, every bookie. The only way to beat them is with a disciplined strategy. Accrington Stanley are my second pick this Saturday, good value at 8/11. I've got Dortmund as my main horse for Sunday.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 16, 2018, 08:59:49 AM
I love a challenge Rocket so keen to try your system.

My first £2.50 double this weekend is going on Schalke to win away to Wolfsburg and Hearts to beat Thistle at Tynecastle.  Both are 23/20 shots which if successful will get me back £11.56.   :thumbsup:

So tempted to back Tiger Woods to win the Arnold Palmer this weekend but picking a golf tournament winner is a bit of a lottery.  He's 13/2 after a good first round.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 16, 2018, 09:38:29 AM
I love a challenge Rocket so keen to try your system.

My first £2.50 double this weekend is going on Schalke to win away to Wolfsburg and Hearts to beat Thistle at Tynecastle.  Both are 23/20 shots which if successful will get me back £11.56.   :thumbsup:

So tempted to back Tiger Woods to win the Arnold Palmer this weekend but picking a golf tournament winner is a bit of a lottery.  He's 13/2 after a good first round.

I have Schalke in a single this weekend, also at 23/20. I picked Hearts in our first double, 19/10 to beat Hibs but it finished 0-0. I've never picked such long odds since and given that our strategy is to pick nailed on winners - we call it NOD, Nailed On Doubles - I was being a greedy smart arse at that price. The bet on Tuesday that brought an amazing run to an end were both 11/10 shots, my Edinburgh City getting sunk by a late Cowdenbeath equaliser.

It's not a "system" as such. We just believe that we know enough about football, form and momentum in this game that we can pick a winner more often than not. It's the management of the stakes that's key. We only lost £15 on Tuesday but would have won over £50.

Getting back into fitba betting, my rule of thumb is "going for value" and therefore I've got a single on Cardiff at 5/2 this weekend and most of my bets are singles followed by doubles and the odd treble (Rapid Vienna, Wolves and Valencia this week).

Good luck. Your 4.62 factor (return) is longer odds than we've ever put on in our NOD. My mate went Man City at 1/4 away in our first bet, a 1-0 win but irrelevant as I picked a loser.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 16, 2018, 10:28:47 AM
I've tried over the years, but very few takers.

And I also got depressed at posting losing bets all the time  ;)

I reckon you probably know the game as good as anyone so here's a no brainer proposal for you.

Pick a winner this Saturday from any division in Europe. A nailed on winner. I'm going Juve away to Spal, my first away pick actually in 19 consecutive doubles.

I will put money on your pick and mine and at the end of the season, will transfer half our collective winnings into your bank. Further, I indemnify you against any losses that our NOD's might have. In other words, I'll take the whole risk.

I will prove that two guys who know about football can beat the bookie and given that I trust your judgement, I'm prepared to put my money where my mouth is.

Given that you recommended The Hanoi Bike Shop - a place I've recommended to many others since - this will be a good way of saying thanks.

Your first pick this Saturday is?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 16, 2018, 11:10:30 AM
Rocket, I must admit I have never paid that close attention to leagues outside of Scotland and england although I watch loads of UK fitba.

In your experience are you more likely to get nailed on wins in the likes of Spain, Germany and Italy than in our leagues?  ie, are there very rarely major upsets in those leagues because the top teams are so better than the teams at the bottom?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 16, 2018, 11:25:53 AM
Rocket, I must admit I have never paid that close attention to leagues outside of Scotland and england although I watch loads of UK fitba.

In your experience are you more likely to get nailed on wins in the likes of Spain, Germany and Italy than in our leagues?  ie, are there very rarely major upsets in those leagues because the top teams are so better than the teams at the bottom?

Good question but not sure I've got an answer. When the kids were small, I used to spend an extraordinary amount of time studying football for betting purposes. I made a profit every season for 8/9 years in a row until a famous dumb ass bet that lost me the will to live almost, fuelled by drink and in a league I never bet in, emptying my biggest balance in my favourite bookie account. I stopped betting then and only just got back into it these last 2.5 months.

When our kids were very small, I couldn't afford foreign holidays but by the time they were in primary school, my bookie winnings were paying for an annual holiday. But I worked out that I was investing 25+ hours per week to earn the equivalent of less than the minimum wage so it was easy to walk away after the big drop. In my experience it doesn't matter what league we bet in. It's ALL about finding value. The bookies do make mistakes and I love it when I pick a team when the earliest bookies post who's odds come in as kick off approaches. I put a lot of my singles on a week before e.g. Cardiff are 2/1 now on the same bookie I got 5/2 on. But that's not nailed on, just a good value bet. You have to make your own selections but if doing multiples e.g. doubles, it's all about risk management. 4 or 5 to 1's lose more than win and beware of odds on aways. A mate of mine (who used to work in a bookies) proved that laying against EVERY odds on away nets a profit. I know the hard way as I thought he was speaking shite but he didn't even take my money when I was £200 or £300 down on our spreadsheet.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 16, 2018, 12:46:55 PM
I reckon you probably know the game as good as anyone so here's a no brainer proposal for you.

Pick a winner this Saturday from any division in Europe. A nailed on winner. I'm going Juve away to Spal, my first away pick actually in 19 consecutive doubles.

I will put money on your pick and mine and at the end of the season, will transfer half our collective winnings into your bank. Further, I indemnify you against any losses that our NOD's might have. In other words, I'll take the whole risk.

I will prove that two guys who know about football can beat the bookie and given that I trust your judgement, I'm prepared to put my money where my mouth is.

Given that you recommended The Hanoi Bike Shop - a place I've recommended to many others since - this will be a good way of saying thanks.

Your first pick this Saturday is?

Thanks Rocket, that's nice of you to say so and a kind gesture.

Feeling the pressure now right enough!! I'll have a look at the fixtures and get back to you  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 16, 2018, 12:57:58 PM
Feeling the pressure now right enough!! I'll have a look at the fixtures and get back to you  :thumbsup:

Forget the odds. It's all about picking winners. I'll manage the stakes accordingly.

And since we will do this publicly for the next two months, there is pressure... for you to pick more winners than me and vice versa.

I noticed PSG were 1/14 to win at home this week. That's not value. That's a price only a fool would take, usually in a long acca. As it happened, they scored early, had a man sent off before half an hour, scored a 2nd and finished 2-1 so only just did it.

On the other hand, NI were 33/1 to beat England 20 years ago. In a 3 horse race (win, lose, draw), that was an exceptional price for value. My quid on it more than paid for the night in the pub watching it unfold.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 16, 2018, 01:27:31 PM
Motherwell's odds are as long as 11/1 to beat Celtic on Sunday, massive odds for two teams in the same division.

Seem to recall Tam Cowan eluding to the fact that their recent record against Celtic is honking but (like ours) it surely has to come to an end sometime?

 
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 16, 2018, 01:58:57 PM
Motherwell's odds are as long as 11/1 to beat Celtic on Sunday, massive odds for two teams in the same division.

Seem to recall Tam Cowan eluding to the fact that their recent record against Celtic is honking but (like ours) it surely has to come to an end sometime?

11/1 is enormous for the home win. I'm not tempted to put a small punt at 8 or 9/1, which is the best I can see on my online accounts but for 11's, I might put on £2 or so.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 16, 2018, 02:06:08 PM
Betfair  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 16, 2018, 02:20:18 PM
Forget the odds. It's all about picking winners. I'll manage the stakes accordingly.

And since we will do this publicly for the next two months, there is pressure... for you to pick more winners than me and vice versa.


Ok, let's go with Accrington Stanley to win at home v Forest Green Rovers to kick us off.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 16, 2018, 02:34:30 PM
Ok, let's go with Accrington Stanley to win at home v Forest Green Rovers to kick us off.

£7.50 staked. 17/20 for AS so that price has drifted but Juve into 3/10 (got them at 4/11 earlier in the week, before they beat Atalanta).

Good price double to start. Pays 2.4 = £10.53 profit if it wins.

I actually already had a double on those two so happy to see that pick of yours  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 16, 2018, 02:52:31 PM
Nice one, thanks. Looking forward to it!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 16, 2018, 02:57:24 PM
Nice one, thanks. Looking forward to it!

There's a big card on Sunday too actually. Have a look and see if there's anything you fancy as a nailed on winner.

This is a good site for studying form: -

http://www.livescores.com
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 16, 2018, 04:43:30 PM
There's a big card on Sunday too actually. Have a look and see if there's anything you fancy as a nailed on winner.

This is a good site for studying form: -

http://www.livescores.com

I will do, most of my successes this season have been via Serie A.

Are we restricted to the WDW market, or can we venture into other markets?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 16, 2018, 05:01:56 PM
I will do, most of my successes this season have been via Serie A.

Are we restricted to the WDW market, or can we venture into other markets?

Any fitba you like, as long as I can find it in 365 etc.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on March 16, 2018, 10:38:31 PM
Got a (10/1) winning steal in I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here last December when Toff from Made In Chelsea won said show and we had £50 on her. 

Going for Mark Selby each way for next week's Snooker Players Championship on ITV4.  Won't meet O'Sullivan til Final so 1/2 odds 1-2 at (7/1) given how badly The Jester from Leicester has played all season is a risk worth taking.     

Love doing a Both Teams To Score Coupon but only do four games maximum nowadays.  Tomorrow we have Huddersfield Town vs Crystal Palace, Gillingham vs Blackburn Rovers, Shrewsbury Town vs Scunthorpe United and Crewe Alexandra vs Coventry City.

Watch out for a horse called ARNARSON on All Weather too.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 17, 2018, 11:18:30 AM
Aberdeen v Dundee today, Ladbrokes odds are:

Dons 6/10
Draw 14/5
Dundee 5/1

Here's some interesting ones
Kenny McLean to have 3+ shots 21/10
Dons 3-0 11/1
Time of Dons 1st goal 21-30 minutes 6/1
McLean for 1st goal 12/1

and finally one for the pessimists 0-2 is 33/1.

Good luck  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: tintin on March 17, 2018, 01:35:51 PM
Be interested to see how this works out.

Back in the day (when the Sky Monday night game was the game of the week) the bet was 1pt on the draw, if it didn’t win first week then 2pts and likewise 3pts in week three. More often as not you had a draw before three games completed. Usually paid for the beer money that you spent to go to the pub to watch “the big game”
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 17, 2018, 01:55:39 PM
As well as our NOD - nailed on (win) double - we ran a draw double where we tried to pick a draw each. After 16 efforts, my mate had picked 7 draws, I had picked 6 but only 3 of the 16 resulted in draw doubles. Which was fine as a draw double pays 10/1 so we were in profit but last Saturday I pulled the plug on it and suggested we do a Quad (fourfold) instead, two win picks each.

It's too random, picking draws, like trying to shoot fish in a barrel. Anything can happen and the bookies are always going to win offering just over 2/1 for the draw.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 17, 2018, 10:40:32 PM
Hit the post today Rocket.

Back on it for tomorrow I'd need to go with Roma away to Crotone.


Personally today I also hit the post with my bets - had three trebles on, got 2 out of 3 in all of them (if that's not a sign to reduce selections to a double I don't know what is...) but had the princely sum of 3 quid on Killie to beat the Devil's XI @ 8/1. Small winnings are always sweeter when it comes courtesy of the huns losing.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 17, 2018, 10:46:58 PM
Can't believe Juve tonight. Cost me a fortune in potential returns. I watched it too. Bastards.

Ok let's go again. £10 on Roma (8/15) and Dortmund (4/9).
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 17, 2018, 10:53:25 PM
Can't believe Juve tonight. Cost me a fortune in potential returns. I watched it too. Bastards.

Ok let's go again. £10 on Roma (8/15) and Dortmund (4/9).

But also shows you how hard football betting can be. That's a result for the bookies as well as Napoli.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 17, 2018, 11:00:16 PM
But also shows you how hard football betting can be. That's a result for the bookies as well as Napoli.

True. I've done a tenner on Lazio (4/11) & Roma as well.

I'll pull in this one to our spreadsheet if Dortmund suffer a hangover from their exertions in Austria :)
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 18, 2018, 03:50:58 PM
After 2 bets: -

BB 100%, RS 50%

Balance (between us) = +£4.65

I bet most days that end in y so you decide when you want your next pick. Tuesday has a reasonably big card to choose from.

Off and running...
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 18, 2018, 06:07:53 PM
After 2 bets: -

BB 100%, RS 50%

Balance (between us) = +£4.65

I bet most days that end in y so you decide when you want your next pick. Tuesday has a reasonably big card to choose from.

Off and running...

 :thumbsup:

From Tuesday's card I'd pick Shrewsbury - good away record, and going up against Northampton who have Ash Taylor playing for them.  Better than even money at the moment so a departure from my other picks but some of the "nailed on" teams in terms of prices seem a bit off to me.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 18, 2018, 06:20:31 PM
:thumbsup:

From Tuesday's card I'd pick Shrewsbury - good away record, and going up against Northampton who have Ash Taylor playing for them.  Better than even money at the moment so a departure from my other picks but some of the "nailed on" teams in terms of prices seem a bit off to me.

The beauty of good odds picks like that - and Shrews is a great value bet at that price (5/4) - is that we can risk less for a better return.

Doubled with Dunfermline away to the hapless hopeless Brechin @ 2/5. Fiver on it.

Edit: Typo. Dunf 4/9. £16.25 back hopefully.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 19, 2018, 12:35:18 PM
So tempted to back Tiger Woods to win the Arnold Palmer this weekend but picking a golf tournament winner is a bit of a lottery.  He's 13/2 after a good first round.

Tied 5th in the end following a 2nd place the week before.

Lump your money on him for the Masters at 10/1.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 19, 2018, 02:00:10 PM
I love a challenge Rocket so keen to try your system.

My first £2.50 double this weekend is going on Schalke to win away to Wolfsburg and Hearts to beat Thistle at Tynecastle.  Both are 23/20 shots which if successful will get me back £11.56.   :thumbsup:

So tempted to back Tiger Woods to win the Arnold Palmer this weekend but picking a golf tournament winner is a bit of a lottery.  He's 13/2 after a good first round.

Good shooting loon, £9.06 up after one double. The home came in a lot easier than the away but great start, 2 x odds against.

Keep us posted of your second double picks and your stake. Let's see who's the most in profit come May.

10/1 not enuf to tempt me. Tiger was rusty this weekend but great to have him back.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 20, 2018, 08:27:27 AM
Keep us posted of your second double picks and your stake. Let's see who's the most in profit come May.

I'm going £5 double on Ayr away to Albion Rovers tonight 2/5 and Dunfermline to beat Brechin 4/9.  Possible £10.11 return.

Tomorrow the same on Liechtenstein 7/10 to beat Andorra and Macclesfield away at Maidstone 6/4.  Possible return on that one is £21.25.  Never thought I would ever find myself cheering on Liechtenstein.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 20, 2018, 10:04:21 AM
I'm going £5 double on Ayr away to Albion Rovers tonight 2/5 and Dunfermline to beat Brechin 4/9.  Possible £10.11 return.

Coincidence, my mate picked Ayr and Dunfermline is my pick. Dunno which bookies you use or whether the prices have come in but I got 4/9 on Ayr and 9/20 on Dunf on McBookie. I tend to stick with bet365 or them as they usually are in amongst the best odds.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 20, 2018, 09:45:11 PM
After 3 bets: -

BB 67%, RS 67%

33% NOD.

Balance (between us) = -35p

Saturday next.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 20, 2018, 09:47:03 PM
I'm going £5 double on Ayr away to Albion Rovers tonight 2/5 and Dunfermline to beat Brechin 4/9.  Possible £10.11 return.

Tomorrow the same on Liechtenstein 7/10 to beat Andorra and Macclesfield away at Maidstone 6/4.  Possible return on that one is £21.25.  Never thought I would ever find myself cheering on Liechtenstein.

£14.17 in profit after 2, 100% picks, 4/4. Great start min.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 21, 2018, 08:59:07 AM
£14.17 in profit after 2, 100% picks, 4/4. Great start min.

 :thumbsup: So far so good
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 21, 2018, 09:03:13 AM
Going for Mark Selby each way for next week's Snooker Players Championship on ITV4.  Won't meet O'Sullivan til Final so 1/2 odds 1-2 at (7/1) given how badly The Jester from Leicester has played all season is a risk worth taking.     

Selby is struggling for a bit of form Seabass.  I watched a bit of the Rocket last night and he looks untouchable at the moment.  He's down to just 5/2 for the World Championship.  Not much money to be made from him.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 21, 2018, 09:06:20 AM
:thumbsup: So far so good

I hope you continue it tonight cos inspired by your picks, I've put Lichtenstein at evens in a double with Wigan tonight. Plus a treble on three teams I've never heard of from the Italian and German lower leagues.

The reason I'm backing Lichtenstein is because

1. One of their club sides beat Sevco
2. Andorra are shite
3. Lichtenstein are at home, but most of all
4. You backed them at 7/10 so evens is better value and you're lucky so I'm having some of that  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on March 21, 2018, 11:25:36 AM
The reason I'm backing Lichtenstein is because

1. One of their club sides beat Sevco


Progres were Luxembourgian I think...
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 21, 2018, 11:30:37 AM
Progres were Luxembourgian I think...

Fuck you're right. Knew it began with L. From some wee country I've never been to, and probably couldn't locate on a map. But reason 4 will bring it home. Never betted on an international friendly before. And probably never will again after the 0-0 tonight.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 21, 2018, 01:42:22 PM
you're lucky so I'm having some of that  :thumbsup:

Aye, nae giving up the day job just yet.

Looked at Wigan and thought the stuffing may have been knocked out of them by the FA Cup defeat at the weekend but time will tell. 

International friendlies are a bloody minefield though.  Nothing on the whole card that I looked at and thought that's a cert.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 21, 2018, 05:50:37 PM
After 3 bets: -

BB 67%, RS 67%

33% NOD.

Balance (between us) = -35p

Saturday next.

Apologies RS, was too bold with that call.

Got a couple of free bets so have put two trebles on for the golf today:

Grace to beat  B Watson
Cabrera Bello to beat Kodaira
Aphibarnrat to beat Reavie.  returns just under 30 quid

Pieters to beat Final
Fleetwood to beat Poulter
Oosthuizen to beat Duffner. returns 27 quid.

Neither likely to come in but I'm loaded with the flu so gives me more interest/something to shout at the tv about.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 21, 2018, 06:50:54 PM
No apologies required nor due. It was a good pick at a good price.

I've found a couple of lovely nailed on teams for Saturday already. I got the same price for them as I got for Berliner AK 07 tonight, currently 2-0 up away from home, a team I'd never heard of and I lived in Deutschland for six years! Got KFC Uerdingen 05, another team I've never heard of, in a couple of trebles with them, 1-0 up already after 16 minutes   8)
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 21, 2018, 08:08:24 PM
International friendlies are a bloody minefield though. 

Fuckin Andorra....they'd only won 5 of 147 internationals.

6 now!    :hammer:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on March 21, 2018, 08:44:20 PM

Luxembourg would have taken them
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on March 21, 2018, 08:55:15 PM
Kiriakov,
             January 29th at Paddy Power I put £12.50 e/w on Ronnie O'Sullivan (7/1) 1/2 odds 1-2 to win World Championships.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 21, 2018, 09:11:04 PM
Kiriakov,
             January 29th at Paddy Power I put £12.50 e/w on Ronnie O'Sullivan (7/1) 1/2 odds 1-2 to win World Championships.

Aye, that's better value Seabass.  Higgins is the only guy that disna seem to be scared of him.  I would expect one of the two of those to win it but it's a pretty grueling tournament, mentally, over two weeks so who knows?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on March 21, 2018, 10:15:09 PM
Kiriakov, a cheeky fiver on O'Sullivan to beat Ding 6-3 (9/2) tonight!!!!! 

I had him £12.50 e/w (8/1) 1/2 odds 1-2 both years he won World's in 2012 and 2013.  RIDICULOUS PRICE second year after he took 12 months out out and destroyed field.  Had him twice out of last three years he won Masters in 2014 and 2016 against Selby and Hawkins again both (7/2) which is still cracking value for a player of his ability.  Not sure why we didn't have the guy when playing Perry 2017. 
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 22, 2018, 10:12:36 AM
Kiriakov, a cheeky fiver on O'Sullivan to beat Ding 6-3 (9/2) tonight!!!!! 

I had him £12.50 e/w (8/1) 1/2 odds 1-2 both years he won World's in 2012 and 2013.  RIDICULOUS PRICE second year after he took 12 months out out and destroyed field.  Had him twice out of last three years he won Masters in 2014 and 2016 against Selby and Hawkins again both (7/2) which is still cracking value for a player of his ability.  Not sure why we didn't have the guy when playing Perry 2017. 

A cheeky fiver.  Loving that! Spend your winnings wisely Seabass  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 22, 2018, 10:21:31 AM
Apologies RS, was too bold with that call.

Got a couple of free bets so have put two trebles on for the golf today:

Grace to beat  B Watson
Cabrera Bello to beat Kodaira
Aphibarnrat to beat Reavie.  returns just under 30 quid

Pieters to beat Final
Fleetwood to beat Poulter
Oosthuizen to beat Duffner. returns 27 quid.

Neither likely to come in but I'm loaded with the flu so gives me more interest/something to shout at the tv about.

Here's a good treble for you today BB

Casey, Poulter and Oosthuizen to win their matches at combined odds of just over 4/1.  I'm going for one of Seabass' cheeky fivers on that.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 22, 2018, 11:38:24 AM
Betting on golf matchplay for a single bet even is like shooting into a barrel of fish. Anybody can beat anybody in this format, as Uihlein and others proved yesterday. My advice is NOT to bet on this format, not with any serious dough anyway.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: Garlogie_Granite on March 23, 2018, 09:17:14 AM
So it's not like shooting fish in  barrel then?  :dunno:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 23, 2018, 01:21:26 PM
So it's not like shooting fish in  barrel then?  :dunno:

I don't understand your post?

The only thing I am getting is that you may be trying to be a smart arse about something?

My apologies if I misinterpreted and that you were just going down the humour line, which also escaped me?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 23, 2018, 03:22:14 PM
No apologies required nor due. It was a good pick at a good price.

I've found a couple of lovely nailed on teams for Saturday already. I got the same price for them as I got for Berliner AK 07 tonight, currently 2-0 up away from home, a team I'd never heard of and I lived in Deutschland for six years! Got KFC Uerdingen 05, another team I've never heard of, in a couple of trebles with them, 1-0 up already after 16 minutes   8)

My pick for Saturday will be Wigan away to Bury.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 23, 2018, 04:29:09 PM
Tomorrow I'm going for a £5 double on Shrewsbury and Coventry.  Potential return for 2 home wins of £16.19.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 23, 2018, 04:57:09 PM
£10 on it B.B.  Morton 1/3 & Wigan 7/10.

My mate picked Ayr for our double and I added Wigan and he picked Coventry for our Quad.

Lot of great minds thinking alike here  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 24, 2018, 08:52:05 AM
£9.17 kitns
-35p us

2/3 picks bb & rs, 4/6 kitns, all 67%

kitns got lucky in that by picking two losers in the same bet, his doubles are 2/3 whereas ours are 1/3

Game on  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on March 24, 2018, 02:21:36 PM
Just had a horse called 'Lower Hope Dandy' placed 3rd at Newbury!!!  Put £7.50 e/w on him priced (16/1). 
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 24, 2018, 05:48:45 PM
£10 on it B.B.  Morton 1/3 & Wigan 7/10.

My mate picked Ayr for our double and I added Wigan and he picked Coventry for our Quad.

Lot of great minds thinking alike here  :thumbsup:

Good day all round. Well done lads  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 24, 2018, 06:51:24 PM
£20.36 kitns
£12.31 us

3/4 picks bb & rs, 6/8 kitns, all 75%

We are 50% doubles landed, you are 75%.

But it will be highly unlikely that you will finish ahead of us come May.

For reasons I could tell you right now, if it wasn't obvious already.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 24, 2018, 07:24:41 PM
Friday and Saturday the next two for us BB.

Guffies Easter card gives good opportunities.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 25, 2018, 10:30:18 AM
Talking isn't doing. It is a kind of good deed to say well; and yet words are not deeds.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: Elgindon on March 25, 2018, 10:53:47 AM

 Wise words Doogie,i'm sure......just gies another hour or 4 to reflect on them
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 26, 2018, 10:13:15 AM
Friday and Saturday the next two for us BB.

Guffies Easter card gives good opportunities.

Nice one RS.

I shall have a look this week for Friday and Saturday.  Away this weekend in Verona so will try to get picks for both days at the same time. Shall be taking in Chievo v Sampdoria while I'm away, that's a game that's screaming out Over 2.5 given recent defensive difficulties for both but as I'll be there I'll stay away from betting on it.  Sure fire goalless draw coming up!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 27, 2018, 12:14:39 AM
Got St Mirren and Raith Rovers in a double tomorrow. It returns 2.2 but only put a seventh of our balance (profit, playing with bookies money now) on it as we have already staked a good bet on a Friday double that is more nailed on, I feel so will be interested to see what you pick BB.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 27, 2018, 02:01:11 PM
Giddy heights of the Vanarama National League North for me tonight.  :o

Going with a £5 double on Brackley Town to beat Boston United and Harrogate Town to win at home to Spennymoor.

Potential return of £13.46.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 27, 2018, 09:52:03 PM
+£15.36 kitns

7/10 picks = 70%

3/5 doubles = 60%

Bobby, my mate and I are going Friday, Saturday and Sunday so see what you fancy.

Enjoy Verona. Been to Lake Garda and Milano and Torino to the west and Venezia to the east but never been to Verona so will be interested to hear your spiel. Long weekend? A part of the world you know? Love Italy.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 27, 2018, 10:39:47 PM
Not much jumping out for me on Friday so I'd have to take Wigan again for me, this time at home to Oldham.

Saturday - Atalanta at home to Udinese. Udinese lost 5 on the spin and Atalanta should be doing better this season, have weirdly struggled at home but should still be strong enough to win this one.

Sunday - Like the look of Villarreal away to Malaga at better than Evens. Malaga are woeful and Villarreal are the sort of team who can grind out victories.

Thanks RS, never visited Verona before but been to a fair amount of Italy and loved it so looking forward to it. Just a couple of nights, heading out on Friday morning and back Sunday evening - going with old school mates, getting too hard for some of them to get more than 2 nights away from the wife and kids but will have a good laugh, and enjoy some cracking food and wine.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: donsdaft on March 27, 2018, 10:58:52 PM
Lovely town.

Possibly my favourite in Italy.


Quote from a yank in the amphitheater about the state of the terraces

" Gee this wouldn't be allowed back home, why don't they fix it up?"




Just as well he never stood on the old ash terracing at Hampden.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 28, 2018, 01:40:53 AM
Not much jumping out for me on Friday so I'd have to take Wigan again for me, this time at home to Oldham.

Ha. We have a Cardiff Wigan double on ourselves and I love it. £10 on. £19.60 only back I'm afraid as both prices are now 2/5 whereas we got them both at 4/9 two or three days ago.

Saturday - Atalanta at home to Udinese. Udinese lost 5 on the spin and Atalanta should be doing better this season, have weirdly struggled at home but should still be strong enough to win this one.

Didn't see this one so will put £10 on it too, with Falkirk at home to Brechin (1/4) = £18.05 (Atalanta 4/9).

Sunday - Like the look of Villarreal away to Malaga at better than Evens. Malaga are woeful and Villarreal are the sort of team who can grind out victories.

Amazing coincidence. I put them on in a double with Atletico already. Another £10 at 2/9 and 23/20 = £26.28.


Enjoy northern Italy. Like it's possible not to  :thumbsup:

And PM me your e-mail sometime. I'll show you our spreadsheet and a more comprehensive one that's been going for 3 months. It IS possible to beat the bookies 👍
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 28, 2018, 01:53:41 AM
Just as well he never stood on the old ash terracing at Hampden.

If he was there in the late 70's for the Pomagne final v. the huns, I would've shoved him in the road of a fleein bottle just on principle, the principle being him being a greetin yank wank. 
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 28, 2018, 01:59:41 AM
Just for the record and out of interest, my mate went Schalke on Saturday and I stuck £70 on it with Falkirk so it's a big one for us. I'm already counting my Cardiff and his Wigan as a winner. He's not said re Sunday yet.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 28, 2018, 02:12:34 AM
Tell ye what Bobby, if this works out between us until the rest of the season, I'm going to invite you to join us for a NOT - a Nailed On Treble - in August to start the 2018/19 season where we pick one each and make some good dough. Your picks are exactly the type of selections we go for. I knew this would work  :thumbsup:

You will NEVER be asked for money as our goal is not to lose and I can afford to take the risk. It's the element of competition between us that makes it pay plus my selection of suitable partners of course! We started with nothing at the end of December but I'm suggesting we hold back £200 to start our 2018/19 NOD in August, the goal being £2.5k each at Xmas and the rest in May 2019.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on March 28, 2018, 08:54:48 AM
Nice one RS, I'd be up for that.  :thumbsup:

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on March 28, 2018, 05:52:41 PM
I had £5 Charlie Mulgrew Anytime Scorer (9/1) last night.  GUTTED!!!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 30, 2018, 02:23:56 PM
Keep us posted of your second double picks and your stake. Let's see who's the most in profit come May.

Gone with a £5 treble today on Wigan, Shrewsbury and Cardiff to hopefully return £30.38.

Over the weekend a double of Stuttgart v Hamburg and Villareal away. £5 would return £19.69.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 30, 2018, 05:29:40 PM
Gone with a £5 treble today on Wigan, Shrewsbury and Cardiff to hopefully return £30.38.

Over the weekend a double of Stuttgart v Hamburg and Villareal away. £5 would return £19.69.

We won't count your losing treble in oor wee competition. Cos it's a treble!

Even though you posted it after your first leg (and ours) had come in.

Let's stick to doubles please.

I take it you're taking Stuttgart for the home win?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 30, 2018, 05:32:58 PM
+£21.91 now Bobby.

4/5 picks each and 3/5 doubles.

Easy.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on March 30, 2018, 09:18:45 PM
We won't count your losing treble in oor wee competition. Cos it's a treble!

Even though you posted it after your first leg (and ours) had come in.

Let's stick to doubles please.

I take it you're taking Stuttgart for the home win?

Shame I put my treble on at all!

Yes, Stuttgart to win.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on March 31, 2018, 07:14:13 PM
Balances after 6;

kitns +£10.36, 3/6 doubles
us +£21.91, 4/6 doubles

Edit: Forgot to update our balance, we are £29.97 of course after Atalanta and Falkirk.

4/6 doubles, 5/6 picks each.

Hopefully £46.25 in profit after Villarreal come in. I've already counted Atletico winning after them  ;)
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 01, 2018, 10:54:29 AM
Big cards and therefore big opportunities these next three days kitns.

You got any bets coming up, other than your dead rubber at 5.30 today?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 01, 2018, 07:55:27 PM
Nothing staked at the minute Rocket, will take a look later. Too caught up in t whole easter thing with the kids this weekend.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 01, 2018, 08:31:34 PM
Nothing staked at the minute Rocket, will take a look later. Too caught up in t whole easter thing with the kids this weekend.

Easter? Thank you for the opportunity.

When we were kids, we were given hard boiled eggs to paint and draw on. Then we were instructed to roll them down some incline somewhere. And this was meant to be symbolic or something. Jesus or some cunt. I never even liked eating eggs as a kid.

Then we had kids. Not once did we ever observe the same ritualistic shite that we got fed. And why would we? Why should we lie to our children? Or pollute their integrity? Or waste their time and energy?

Then again my wife and I were christened before our memories kicked in. We failed to christen any of our four.

It is poor parenting to follow conformity. Don't get me wrong, I've had a great 3 days. Most people, including my wife and daughter 2 get Friday and Monday off so it was delightful to receive a visit home from her. Instead of a fucking egg though, I insisted she come to the new DM store on Union Street and whilst I was happy enough to buy her latest footwear, I was a bit pissed off to buy the wife a pair too, cos it's not like she needed them. That was sheer opportunism on her part, taking advantage of my good mood and lovely nature, a similar exploitation as driven by the greedy commercialism bastards like Cadbury's at this time of year. Fucking cunts.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 02, 2018, 09:08:32 AM
19.97 up after 4/7 doubles.

5/7 BB, 6/7 rs

Tip for any serious betters...

You must look for early value. Example.

I've got £98 riding on ICT in 3 doubles and a treble on Tuesday at home to Brechin at 4/11.

They're now 1/4 and 2/9 on the two main sites I use.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 02, 2018, 09:46:12 AM
taking advantage of my good mood and lovely nature

Loving that.

£5 double today on Accrington to win at home to Notts County and Havant & Waterlooville away win v Whitehawk.  Potential return for that one is £18.33.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on April 02, 2018, 09:51:01 AM
Would take Blackburn to score more than one goal at 10/11 today RS. They're 3/4 to win away at MK Dons - to win they'll probably need to score more than one so would go with the better odds there. If you can't get that bet on the site you use i'd just take the straight win.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 02, 2018, 09:52:42 AM
Loving that.

£5 double today on Accrington to win at home to Notts County and Havant & Waterlooville away win v Whitehawk.  Potential return for that one is £18.33.

Great minds thinking alike. I've got Accrington as one of my picks today. I never bet in those lower leagues though. Dunno why. The principles will be the same. All 3 horse races - Home, X, Away - and the same value to be found.

Good luck.

Roger B.B. 
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 02, 2018, 09:56:03 AM
£7.50 on Accrington @ 23/20 and Blackburn @ 3/4 pays £28.21.

I cashed out at £25.39 Bobby. Good return for the stake and Peter Pawlett et al are battering them.

Plus Accrington only one up too.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 02, 2018, 05:20:00 PM
Status:

kitns balance +£5.36, 3/7 doubles, 8/14 picks

us balance +£37.96, 5/8 doubles, BB 6/8, rs 7/8


Tip for kitns - your average double factor is 3.49 and ours is 2.49. In other words, you've been going for 2.5 to 1 shots whereas our average picks are 1.5 to 1 shots. There's a message in there somewhere!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on April 02, 2018, 05:24:10 PM
£7.50 on Accrington @ 23/20 and Blackburn @ 3/4 pays £28.21.

I cashed out at £25.39 Bobby. Good return for the stake and Peter Pawlett et al are battering them.

Plus Accrington only one up too.

Nice one RS, wise move. That's why I like that team goals bet but not many bookies do it.
Was considering Coventry City at one point today...  :laughing:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 02, 2018, 05:31:06 PM
Nice one RS, wise move. That's why I like that team goals bet but not many bookies do it.
Was considering Coventry City at one point today...  :laughing:

My mate took Coventry today!!!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 03, 2018, 09:31:57 AM
Status:

kitns balance +£5.36, 3/7 doubles, 8/14 picks

us balance +£37.96, 5/8 doubles, BB 6/8, rs 7/8


Tip for kitns - your average double factor is 3.49 and ours is 2.49. In other words, you've been going for 2.5 to 1 shots whereas our average picks are 1.5 to 1 shots. There's a message in there somewhere!

Think I will check whether Skybet accept monopoly money shortly.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 03, 2018, 09:43:58 AM
Think I will check whether Skybet accept monopoly money shortly.

We've got a double running tonight. You've got enough to stake another fiver. Don't give up now. Just pick winners and don't go for such long odds.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 03, 2018, 12:36:45 PM
Aye, the luck's gotta change soon.

Going for a £5 double on Wolves v Hull and Stockport v Tamworth tonight.  Potential return is £12.38 on that one.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 03, 2018, 01:12:46 PM
Bobby's gone for Wolves too. We have 12.50 riding on this with ICT at home to Brechin to net us a £11.07 profit hopefully.

Is Stockport a home win too? I'm assuming you meant Woves. You didn't say.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 03, 2018, 01:47:14 PM
Is Stockport a home win too? I'm assuming you meant Woves. You didn't say.

Yes, both are for home wins
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 03, 2018, 09:54:23 PM
us +£25.36, BB 6/9, rs 8/9, 5/9 doubles

kitns +£0.36, 9/16 picks, 3/8 doubles
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 06, 2018, 09:33:56 AM
Got my £5 double on for tomorrow.

Going for Blackburn to beat Southend in English League One and Schalke to beat Hamburg in the Bundesliga.  Potential return is £14.08.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 06, 2018, 06:18:26 PM
Bobby went for Blackburn and I'm on the opponent's of Brechin again, which happens to be St Mirren this week. £12 on, £22.50 return.

On Sunday I'm on Arsenal and BB has taken Lazio. £10 staked, £28.81 return.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 06, 2018, 06:28:31 PM
With our first NOD, it took us 17 bets from late December to 11th March to first get our balance over £100. We went over £200 for the first time on 30th March and one day later, last Saturday, 31st March, we exceeded £300 for the first time. Our 6 x winning doubles in a row came to an end with losses on Sunday and Monday but back to winning ways with Rochdale and ICT (v. Brechin) on Tuesday. Hopefully will exceed £400 for the first time tomorrow and if Sunday wins too (Valencia and Arsenal), we will be over £500.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 06, 2018, 06:36:06 PM
kitns, I'm on Schalke too tomorrow. Loved the evens price. I put them on in a double with Hibs on Tuesday when they beat Hamilton, a number of bets I put on, some of which have already won and a few running this weekend carrying forward wins from this week.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 07, 2018, 10:30:29 AM
And another £5 double........

Peterhead away win v Berwick and the mighty St Albans City to win at home to Whitehawk.  Potential return £10.43.  Poor odds but hopefully nailed on-ish.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 07, 2018, 12:40:16 PM
Poor odds? A double that pays roughly evens is my favourite type of double as I'm usually very confident in my two picks when that's the type of return. Maybe the penny is dropping!

Having said that, I don't think Peterhead at 1/2 for the AWAY is that good value so yes I agree, that could be classed as poor odds. They've been too hot and cold for me this year. The only time I backed them in our NOD's was at 9/20 for a HOME win. Even though they won 7-0, I still haven't touched them since.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 07, 2018, 06:51:45 PM
Us +35.86, BB 7/10, rs 9/10, 6 out of 10 doubles.

kitns -9.64, 11/20 picks, 3 out of 10 doubles.

I was at Glebe Park for the first time in my life to see some of my bets come in. Having backed against Brechin for 5 of my last 8 picks and being successful 5/5, I won't be doing so again! They are really shite but if that's the gulf between top and bottom, they're not worth the declining odds we're getting for Brechin's opponents. Plus the pitch was so bad, anything can happen. Just a shite game of fitba made bearable by some great banter from a huge away support thinking they might win the league today and a phenomenal header by me the minute before they scored, for which I got congratulations from admiring buddies. Left 20 minutes before the end.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 08, 2018, 06:59:46 PM
Outstanding away pick today Bobby. £54.67 up thru 11. This is going to be profitable  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 09, 2018, 10:41:00 AM
We go again Tuesday and Saturday this week BB  :thumbsup:

Fulham for me the morn.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on April 09, 2018, 11:04:10 AM
Think I'd need to go for Blackburn again RS. Wigan are very tempting at almost Evens but Rochdale have come in to some form... think Blackburn are probably the safer bet tomorrow night.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 09, 2018, 11:07:58 AM
Think I'd need to go for Blackburn again RS. Wigan are very tempting at almost Evens but Rochdale have come in to some form... think Blackburn are probably the safer bet tomorrow night.  :thumbsup:

£15 on, £35.33 back. Cheers.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 09, 2018, 12:00:52 PM
I'm on Man City for a home win v the scousers and Millwall for away win v Bolton on Tuesday. £5 would bring back £14.44.

Wednesday it's Wolves and Real Madrid possible return of £13.05 on the £5.

Saturday St Mirren and Fulham for home wins returns £17.55 on £5 stake.

I'll be back on next week when all my winners have come in and the Dons are in the cup final  :rofl:




Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 09, 2018, 08:26:58 PM
I'm on Man C tomorrow and Fulham both tomorrow and Saturday. Good luck this week. Don't need you digging into your monopoly fund.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on April 09, 2018, 08:45:03 PM
Got four placed horses from ITV4 races at Kelso on Saturday afternoon.  Donna's Diamond 2nd at (4/1), Lake View Lad 3rd (8/1) and the other two were winners ACDC (9/2) and Keyboard Gangster (16/1) although it returned (28/1) once crossing said finishing line!!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on April 10, 2018, 02:23:01 PM
Any tips for the national Seabass? I never really bet on the horses apart from my annual punt on the national.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 10, 2018, 02:24:40 PM
Any tips for the national Seabass? I never really bet on the horses apart from my annual punt on the national.

The one with the funniest name always wins. Then is shot through the nose
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on April 10, 2018, 07:19:10 PM
Final declarations not out til Thursday late morning.  I'd like to see Seeyouatmidnight go well.  Of course last year's winner One For Arthur was trained just 15 miles from where I live Kelso way and we weren't on it.   
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 11, 2018, 05:04:44 PM
Unlucky run of form kitns. You were 3 of your first 4 and then 7 losers in a row.

Or is it luck?

Your average double would return 3.14 if successful. Our (BB and I) average pick is 2.41 and our average winning factor is 2.34. With my mate with whom we have been doing this for 3.5 months, very successfully, our average winning return is 2.21. Our £115 double this weekend returns 1.63.

Anyway, status as follows;

kitns -14.64, 12/22 picks, 3 out of 11 doubles.
us +39.67, BB 8/12 picks, rs 11/12 picks, 7/12 doubles.

My average odds pick is 1.41. Bobby's is 1.73. My only loser was our first one, a 3/10 away for Juventus of all things so we know that heavily odds on picks don't always win, particularly aways. But going for doubles at more than 2 to 1 on average, these are not in the spirit of what I suggested to you i.e. "nailed-on" doubles. I'm really not surprised that you're failing, as I predicted you would even when you were winning.

For sure there is an element of luck. Bobby's Blackburn were tanking into the opposition last night but never got the breakthrough. My other mate enjoyed an 81st minute winner for ICT last night and a 94th minute winner for Morton to return 3/3 trebles that he and another guy have just opened a paddy power account for, an £84 balance already.

I just think that we make our own luck and hunting for such big returns as you are, it is impossible to win more than you lose... without a GREAT deal of luck. My 1 loser in 12 v BB's 4 losers in 12 isn't because I know more about football than him, or that I've been luckier than him or that I have a crystal ball. I'm just playing the odds and the bookies better, something gleaned for decades of experience, some of it bitter.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: tintin on April 11, 2018, 07:07:17 PM
Rocket are you playing level stakes each bet or points?

Have some tokens to play with at Reeds masters win... So happy days
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 11, 2018, 10:57:48 PM
Rocket are you playing level stakes each bet or points?

Have some tokens to play with at Reeds masters win... So happy days

I don't understand the question sir.

As I said at the start, maintain a spreadsheet. It's the ONLY way to beat the bookie.

The average odds for a double between BB and I and my mate and I is over evens and not as speculative as 1.5 to 1 i.e. 6/4.

For example, two picks at 1/3 + 1/2 is an even bet.

 
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: tintin on April 12, 2018, 04:07:12 AM
Question is do you play one stake. Say £5 each bet. Or do you increase the stakes if you are more confident or have more funds in the bank?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 12, 2018, 10:56:39 AM
Question is do you play one stake. Say £5 each bet. Or do you increase the stakes if you are more confident or have more funds in the bank?

No, never the same stake. That's just casual punting, putting an interest on. We're not interested in that. We are doing it to beat the bookie. Our first bet in late December was a £2.50 double. It took us over a month before we staked a tenner, mainly cos we didn't get off to a good start. Our bet this Saturday is £115. Our previous biggest stake was £75.

There is an element of "more confident" but mostly, it's stakes-management to get ever increasing returns. Our last two nailed-on doubles have netted us our two biggest profits. Saturday's £115 stake returns just over 185 which would be the first bet over £70 profit. On Tuesday we earned £69.09 which was 40 on ICT and Fulham, 109.09 back.

The key is that we are using bookies money to take more of it from them but playing within our means, managing the risks. Tuesday was our first time over £400 profit, Saturday will be our first over £500.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: tintin on April 12, 2018, 12:36:10 PM
Cheers. All makes sense.
Mine own interest for next few weeks is hopefully seeing Millwall at 6/1 finish in top six.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 12, 2018, 12:38:57 PM
We once lost a £20 stake on a freak result which put us back into the red, to the tune of £1.37. So mad was I that that bet lost, we staked £45 on Spurs 2/11 and Liverpool 2/9 to return £65, thereby getting our £20 back when they both won 2-0 at home. That was a risk for sure as we didn't have £45 in the bank to play with but it was a defining point, the reminder we needed to stop shooting for fish in a barrel and revert to our original philosophy, nailed-on doubles. It's also the shortest combined odds we've ever gone for.

ICT on Tuesday were hardly nailed on but because I had chosen Fulham, which was also his first pick, he sought out great value from the formbook which allowed us to risk less to give us our biggest-yet return.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 12, 2018, 05:05:18 PM
BB and I going for Raith Rovers 4/11 and Montrose 2/5 (now 1/2 on McBookie, tempting bastards).

£12.50 staked, £23.86 back.

Sunday the two Madrids. Not decided how much to stake yet.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 14, 2018, 10:58:48 PM
Lucky 13 for us today...

BB 9/13 picks, rs 12/13. 8/13 winning doubles = £51.03 up.

13 was unlucky for you kitns. Zero picks out of 2 and EIGHT losing doubles in a row.

kitns 13/26 picks, 3/13 doubles = £24.64 donated to the bookies.

You should give up now. You have no fucking idea.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 14, 2018, 11:01:53 PM
£20 on Real (BB) + Atletico (me). £32.14 back.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 17, 2018, 05:34:27 PM
After Bobby's Accrington and my Wigan tonight, we will be either £50.68 or £76.23 in profit.

My mate and I suffered a £115 drop on Saturday thanks to 10 man Ayr, our heaviest defeat yet. It would have put us over £500 but we still have more than £300 of bookies money to play with in this, the last month of the campaign and usually one of the more volatile betting markets.

The reason why the bookies make profits every year is because the average punter is stupid. Ladbrokes even made an ad to target their intellectually-retarded market with their accumulators, that Mr Brightside being a face you could never tire of kicking and the token black guy, the one with the friendly face. The bookies are laffing at us. We will be laffing at them next month, the only remaining question being by how much.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 18, 2018, 08:39:02 AM
For the record, 2 x £15 doubles this weekend.

Wigan away for BB, Marseille for me.

Sunday Inter away for BB + my Chelsea.

Never seen anyone pick so many aways for nailed on picks but he keeps on delivering.

For the purists watching, only reason I've not upped the stakes to a third or half our stash is that I'm anticipating that my 14 consecutive winning streak can't go on for ever. A weird sense of impending failure (at some stage) and realism getting in the way of my usual account management strategy.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 21, 2018, 09:18:20 AM
Last 3 weeks odds against AFC opponents;

Hearts 19/5
Motherwell 5/2
Killie 13/5

The bookies rate McInnes' Aberdeen more than I do!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: tlg1903 on April 22, 2018, 01:47:02 PM
Good bets today

Lazio
Lazio v samp over 2.5
Brugges v liege btts
Az v feyenoord bbts and over 2.5


Lazio 4-0
Brugges 4-4
Az v feynoord 0-3

3 out of 4 isn't bad
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 23, 2018, 11:10:40 AM
12/17 doubles, BB 13/17, rs 16/17, balance +£105.34

Top of the table away double for us tomorrow, Wigan and Blackburn.

Will be +92.84 or +125.58 after that.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 23, 2018, 01:53:22 PM
Fools doing 75/100+ to 1 accas are pissing money away.

You're spikkin total shite min.

I seen a NE mannie cash out a tenner 7-fold on Saturday for £4,915.32 when Man Utd went 2-1 up.

It would've have returned £7,400 if he had held on but 490/1, that's awesome in anyone's language.

So it can be done. Fish can be shot in a barrel. He had Aberdeen to beat Killie in that line too  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 23, 2018, 03:38:47 PM
You're spikkin total shite min.

I seen a NE mannie cash out a tenner 7-fold on Saturday for £4,915.32 when Man Utd went 2-1 up.

It would've have returned £7,400 if he had held on but 490/1

Bottler. Was it McInnes?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 03:19:52 PM
You're spikkin total shite min.

I seen a NE mannie cash out a tenner 7-fold on Saturday for £4,915.32 when Man Utd went 2-1 up.

It would've have returned £7,400 if he had held on but 490/1, that's awesome in anyone's language.

So it can be done. Fish can be shot in a barrel. He had Aberdeen to beat Killie in that line too  :thumbsup:
Well done to the guy but cash out is never value, an easy way for bookies to save some money.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 03:26:44 PM
Well done to the guy but cash out is never value, an easy way for bookies to save some money.

Now it's you who's spikkin shite. Cashing out 5k if Spurs had equalised would've been an easy way to relieve the bookies of cash!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 03:30:05 PM
Now it's you who's spikkin shite. Cashing out 5k if Spurs had equalised would've been an easy way to relieve the bookies of cash!
I'm not and I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out, his bet was worth more than he cashed out for at the time so he's cost himself some money to start with.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 03:43:39 PM
I'm not and I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out, his bet was worth more than he cashed out for at the time so he's cost himself some money to start with.

He picked up £5k for a £10 stake. It was not guaranteed that his £7,400 would come in. Of course every single cash out is weighted in the bookies favour, in terms of the original odds given but what price contingency?

We are up on our ten cashed out bets overall in this period of punting. Because if we hadn't cashed out when we did on the two that were the correct decision, we would have lost.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 03:45:55 PM
He picked up £5k for a £10 stake. It was not guaranteed that his £7,400 would come in. Of course every single cash out is weighted in the bookies favour, in terms of the original odds given but what price contingency?

We are up on our ten cashed out bets overall in this period of punting. Because if we hadn't cashed out when we did on the two that were the correct decision, we would have lost.
Cashing out is a short term gain but long term loser, as I said fair play to him but cashing out isn't for me, I've been it 4 or 5 times but wouldn't do it again as there are other ways around to secure profit.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 03:51:56 PM
Cashing out is a short term gain but long term loser, as I said fair play to him but cashing out isn't for me, I've been it 4 or 5 times but wouldn't do it again as there are other ways around to secure profit.

Fuck me. Am I missing something simple here?

What are you talking about? The only time a cash out is the right decision is if the bet doesn't come in. In 10 cash outs this year, 8 times was the wrong decision, including Chelsea when 1-0 up v. Southampton. But the twice we cashed out when the bet would've failed (when Bayern were 1-0 up away and got beat and another time when I was worried about Wolves but they held on and my pick drew after being 3-0 up), we saved more money in those two than we lost in the 8 cash outs.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 03:59:37 PM
What I'm saying is that over a long period of time cashing out you'll lose money, there's a reason the bookies offer it and they LOVE customers that use it all the time, that's a fact.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 04:12:12 PM
What I'm saying is that over a long period of time cashing out you'll lose money, there's a reason the bookies offer it and they LOVE customers that use it all the time, that's a fact.

Only a fucking retard would use it "all the time" and I've already said that the average punter is a fucking retard.


But your argument is retarded. A cash out option is a welcome addition to a non-retarded punter. It never loses money when it is engaged at the right times.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 04:24:34 PM
Only a fucking retard would use it "all the time" and I've already said that the average punter is a fucking retard.


But your argument is retarded. A cash out option is a welcome addition to a non-retarded punter. It never loses money when it is engaged at the right times.
Well that's not true, the bookies never give you what your bet is worth if you are cashing out hence why almost every bookie has created their own model for it and actively encourage customers to use it.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 04:28:34 PM
Well that's not true, the bookies never give you what your bet is worth if you are cashing out hence why almost every bookie has created their own model for it and actively encourage customers to use it.

Nobody can be this thick. Nice wind up. Good fishing.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 04:42:40 PM
Nobody can be this thick. Nice wind up. Good fishing.
So you genuinely think you get the full worth of your bet at the time of cash out?  Guys I speak to who know and understand betting a lot more than you and I ever will would never use cashout, bookies love a £5-£10 punter that uses cashout a lot and trust me 1000s use it every single day hence why it's available on almost every betting site.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 04:54:01 PM
So you genuinely think you get the full worth of your bet at the time of cash out?  Guys I speak to who know and understand betting a lot more than you and I ever will would never use cashout, bookies love a £5-£10 punter that uses cashout a lot and trust me 1000s use it every single day hence why it's available on almost every betting site.

I cashed out a £55 double for £97.50 instead of waiting for Chelsea to win on Sunday to return us £107.25 so it cost us £9.75 to do so, as Chelsea scored soon after I cashed out. But Soton had just had a goal disallowed, an offside against them in the two minutes before I cashed out and I knew that the £97.50 would have kept us in profit and kept on giving us more bookies money to play with.

IT DIDN'T PAY OFF. Chelsea won anyway.

But on the two occasions out of ten when IT DID PAY OFF, we MADE MORE than we lost on the other 8 bets.

As I said at the start, keeping a spreadsheet the only way to beat the bookies and the only way to understand betting and how best to manage stakes. Nobody can understand betting better than someone who already understands betting. It's really not difficult to anyone numerate and not lacking in intelligence.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 24, 2018, 05:10:06 PM
So you genuinely think you get the full worth of your bet at the time of cash out?  Guys I speak to who know and understand betting a lot more than you and I ever will would never use cashout, bookies love a £5-£10 punter that uses cashout a lot and trust me 1000s use it every single day hence why it's available on almost every betting site.

Why would you never use cashout? Is there an alternative? I'm not fully up to speed with modrin betting, but unless there is an alternative - like selling a bet to a third party willing to take those odds for the difference - then cashout is the only option.

That bookies love it, or try to use it to their advantage in terms of sowing doubt in a punter's mind, is neither here nor there. If you have a specific objective from your betting, a knowledge/awareness of the game(s) that you're betting on then you simply choose when to use it. Knowing that the bookies are giving you crap odds is neither here nor there (no different to the original bet). If you believe that a game is going to change against your favour you wouldn't simply say "I da' cash oot min, fucking bookies" and then proceed to lose your money but not your betting-pride. That would be minorly retarded.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 05:13:55 PM
I severely doubt that bookies do like the cash out option. I also don't understand how they "encourage" us to use it.

This is a crowded market and when the first bookie offered it, everyone else had to.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 05:18:26 PM
Why would you never use cashout? Is there an alternative? I'm not fully up to speed with modrin betting, but unless there is an alternative - like selling a bet to a third party willing to take those odds for the difference - then cashout is the only option.

That bookies love it, or try to use it to their advantage in terms of sowing doubt in a punter's mind, is neither here nor there. If you have a specific objective from your betting, a knowledge/awareness of the game(s) that you're betting on then you simply choose when to use it. Knowing that the bookies are giving you crap odds is neither here nor there (no different to the original bet). If you believe that a game is going to change against your favour you wouldn't simply say "I da' cash oot min, fucking bookies" and then proceed to lose your money but not your betting-pride. That would be minorly retarded.
Nothing to do with pride and everything to do with value that's why I won't use it, maybe the only case to use it would be for a life changing sum of cash well over, another way to make the most from your bet would be to trade on betfair if prices and liquidity allows.
I severely doubt that bookies do like the cash out option. I also don't understand how they "encourage" us to use it.

This is a crowded market and when the first bookie offered it, everyone else had to.
I've heard enough bookie reps and managers talk about it to know that they love a customer cashing out that's also why some shops will let you do it in there too, an easy way out for the mugs where the bookie can save a further 10% or more on a lower amount they'd be losing if you kept the bet running.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 05:25:41 PM
Do you understand that cashing out a bet that then would have gone on to lose is a correct decision?

Facts: -

In 40 x doubles since late December, I've cashed out 10 times for £642.83.

Twice, the cash outs totalling £71.53 would've lost.

8 times, including Chelsea on Sunday, the cash outs were the wrong decisions, costing a total of £55.77.

So what the fuck are you talking about? What scenario are you painting?

You said "I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out". Prove it.

You appear to fail to grasp the simple concept of contingency.



Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 05:30:20 PM
Do you understand that cashing out a bet that then would have gone on to lose is a correct decision?

Facts: -

In 40 x doubles since late December, I've cashed out 10 times for £642.83.

Twice, the cash outs totalling £71.53 would've lost.

8 times, including Chelsea on Sunday, the cash outs were the wrong decisions, costing a total of £55.77.

So what the fuck are you talking about? What scenario are you painting?

You said "I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out". Prove it.

You appear to fail to grasp the simple concept of contingency.
The fact is you don't know it's the correct decision when you push the button.

Say full return of a bet is £220, you cash out for £190 with 10mins left, that £190 is less than what your bet is worth at the time of the cash out, it's not difficult and as usual you dish out the abuse knowing fuckall about what I do full time and the people I learn from.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 05:40:59 PM
The fact is you don't know it's the correct decision when you push the button.

Isn't this the whole point?

Say full return of a bet is £220, you cash out for £190 with 10mins left, that £190 is less than what your bet is worth at the time of the cash out, it's not difficult and as usual you dish out the abuse knowing fuckall about what I do full time and the people I learn from.

A losing bet is worth zero. £190 in the hand is worth £220 in the bush. The bet is NOT WORTH ANYTHING at a time anything other than when it is realised, which in the old days, was full time.

You have been confused by the difference between in-play and cash out between legs. You're listening to dysfunctional human beings - and every professional gambler I've met is dysfunctional in their personal lives, rarely in a good relationship and almost always unable to hold down a job (and remember that I've met few, not many, certainly not the majority and not all) - and you're confusing their statements between in-play and other.

Examples. I put on Genoa last night at 4/9 doubled with Liverpool on Saturday. If I was stupid enough to cash out right now, I would get 1.342 instead of the 1.444 the bet has already earned... but it hasn't earned anything yet and won't do until it is realised. Unless I had changed my mind on Liverpool - who I think will perform well tonight and their price v. Stoke will reduce - then I have no reason to cash out.

I put on SV Ried and FC Porto last night, trebled with Celtic on Sunday. If I was to cash out now, that would be poor judgement as I'm getting better than 11/10 on Celtic this Sunday now, the difference between the original stake and the return if they win.


Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 05:45:48 PM
Ok Rocket as ever you are right, only you can be right despite the fact guys that RUN bookies know cashout is heavily stacked in their favour and that it's almost never value to cash out a bet.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 05:46:56 PM
Ok Rocket as ever you are right, only you can be right despite the fact guys that RUN bookies know cashout is heavily stacked in their favour and that it's almost never value to cash out a bet.

Are you unable to communicate in English? Did you understand what I said?

Do you understand the fundamental and crucial difference between in-play and other?

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 05:52:54 PM
Are you unable to communicate in English? Did you understand what I said?

Do you understand the fundamental and crucial difference between in-play and other?
Yes and clearly you don't as cash out and in play betting work side by side
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 05:59:01 PM
Yes and clearly you don't as cash out and in play betting work side by side

Christ.

Do you know how the "cash out models" you talk of actually work?

No? Well let me tell you.

Calculate the amount your bet would have earned (first leg of a double or first leg or legs of a treble). Compare this to the actual the cash out value. Deduct the cash out offer from what the bet or bets would have earned. Divide that difference against the amount it would have earned. On bet365, it will be 0.0709 to the nearest 4th decimal point.

Heavily stacked you say? It's 7.1%.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 06:02:32 PM
Christ.

Do you know how the "cash out models" you talk of actually work?

No? Well let me tell you.

Calculate the amount your bet would have earned (first leg of a double or first leg or legs of a treble). Compare this to the actual the cash out value. Deduct the cash out offer from what the bet or bets would have earned. Divide that difference against the amount it would have earned. On bet365, it will be 0.0709 to the nearest 4th decimal point.

Heavily stacked you say? It's 7.1%.
I've seen my own bets where I've had £10 on the 3/1 has won with one leg to go and the offer is less than £30 if you want to take it, less than what the bet is worth, ta.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 06:07:39 PM
I've seen my own bets where I've had £10 on the 3/1 has won with one leg to go and the offer is less than £30 if you want to take it, less than what the bet is worth, ta.

OF COURSE it's going to be less than what it would be worth if the double comes in. That's hardly news?

It will be 7.1% less BEFORE in-play, before the commencement of the final leg. Then when in-play happens i.e. the match kicks off, the cash out option changes depending on what's happening in the final leg and depending on the time during the final leg.

And a bet is worth NOTHING until it is realised.

You said you "know the numbers and how it works". Once again, please justify your self-proclaimed superior knowledge?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 06:11:27 PM
OF COURSE it's going to be less than what it would be worth if the double comes in. That's hardly news?

It will be 7.1% less BEFORE in-play, before the commencement of the final leg. Then when in-play happens i.e. the match kicks off, the cash out option changes depending on what's happening in the final leg and depending on the time during the final leg.

And a bet is worth NOTHING until it is realised.

You said you "know the numbers and how it works". Once again, please justify your self-proclaimed superior knowledge?
Of course the bet is worth something otherwise they wouldn't offer you money ffs, at the time that guy cashed out his bet do you think he got the true value of it?  Cos he never, it's a good 150-250 shorter than what it was worth at the odds available at the time.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 06:18:29 PM
Of course the bet is worth something otherwise they wouldn't offer you money ffs, at the time that guy cashed out his bet do you think he got the true value of it?  Cos he never, it's a good 150-250 shorter than what it was worth at the odds available at the time.

At 2-1 up, Man U would've been what, 1/7 to win.

That punter took 2/3rds of what he would've got if he had held on and IF Man U had completed his 7 fold.

Now you've calculated that he should've been offered 150-250 more? Based on what?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 24, 2018, 06:23:55 PM
At 2-1 up, Man U would've been what, 1/7 to win.

That punter took 2/3rds of what he would've got if he had held on and IF Man U had completed his 7 fold.

Now you've calculated that he should've been offered 150-250 more? Based on what?
Previous experience of seeing large offers for cash outs, I'll go back 2 seasons when Liverpool were 2-0 up on Southampton, bet my friends and I had on was returning roughly £2300, at 2-0 the cash out was around £1800 where as the true value was almost £2000, numbers are rough as it was a fair while back but it wasn't value to cash out at that amount.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 06:35:34 PM
Previous experience of seeing large offers for cash outs, I'll go back 2 seasons when Liverpool were 2-0 up on Southampton, bet my friends and I had on was returning roughly £2300, at 2-0 the cash out was around £1800 where as the true value was almost £2000, numbers are rough as it was a fair while back but it wasn't value to cash out at that amount.

You're confused. A cash out is an offer. It is an offer by the bookie for you to realise the bet, to end the contingency. Of course it will ALWAYS BE LESS than what we would get if we let the contingency run.

But the "value" of the offer is only in the decision-making of the offeree. An average punter is a stupid animal and he will lack knowledge of numbers. But the bet has no value until it is realised. An offer to realise will ALWAYS be in favour of the offeror and as we've now learned, to a specific percentage of every running multiple bet before the final leg.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 08:39:25 PM
I put a single on Reims at 7/5 for the away tonight. 3-1 up after 78 minutes, the cash out = 95.7% of the return.

I'm not taking it but is this "heavily stacked" in the bookies favour?

What should it be minijc?

Edit: having just made it 1-4, the cash out is over 99%. Is this wrong too?

Edit: I've got a single on Cardiff @ 9/5 and 1-0 up at HT, the cash out is 1.734. What should it be?

5 minutes into the 2nd half, the cash out has increased to 1.782. When should I cash out mini?

1.868 after 55 mins. 1.940 after 59 mins. 1.978 after 62. Evens after 66.

0.432 after the equaliser.

Now can you see how the cash out button works mini?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 24, 2018, 09:44:45 PM
5 minutes into the 2nd half, the cash out has increased to 1.782. When should I cash out mini?

1.868 after 55 mins. 1.940 after 59 mins. 1.978 after 62. Evens after 66.

0.432 after the equaliser.

Now can you see how the cash out button works mini?

You should have cashed oot min.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 09:50:48 PM
I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out

But if I had cashed out at even money just before the Derby equaliser, I would have been better off surely?

Your "bookie mates" might convince a retarded punter that cash out is a bad option but as we've seen tonight, in real time, the cash out option is a nightmare for them. The ONLY data that matters to prove it either way is...

well you're a professional punter, you're the self-proclaimed expert, what is it?





Your bullshit doesn't cut no ice. The total saved v. the total lost by punters using the cash out button will prove without doubt that the cash out option is the punter's friend, not the bookies. They curse the first bookie who introduced it.

In furtherance of your education, my Genoa Liverpool double cash out has now increased to 1.405. Not the 1.444 that Genoa earned at 4/9 of course but a big increase from what it was, 1.342. You know why? Self-proclaimed expert? Of course you do. It's because Liverpool's odds have been slashed to 1/4 v. Stoke after their destruction of Roma.

In further furtherance of your vocational qualifications and your CPD, get this. I got Blackburn at 3/4 tonight in a double with TSG Hoffenheim on Friday. Instead of getting 1.75 to cash out with, I'm getting 1.648.

And my Chelmsford win tonight trebled with Fulham on Friday and Peterhead on Saturday, the bookies are withholding 8.852% in their cash out offer.

Idiot.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 24, 2018, 09:52:30 PM
You should have cashed oot min.

I agree but a self-proclaimed expert in this field disagrees.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 25, 2018, 10:31:56 AM
You keep ignoring my point just so you can belittle me, standard rocket behaviour from yourself, my point is and remains that when you cash out the bookies never give you the true worth of your bet AT THE TIME, that is a fact, you also say cash out and in play are separate when they aren't as without in play odds you wouldn't get a suitable offer.  That's my final bit on the subject, you think it's a good thing where as I don't, if people want to cash out their bets then go ahead but like I've already said it's a short term gain but a long term loser if it's continued to be used on most punters bets, wish you and the others on here the very best with your betting.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 25, 2018, 11:21:03 AM
You keep ignoring my point just so you can belittle me, standard rocket behaviour from yourself, my point is and remains that when you cash out the bookies never give you the true worth of your bet AT THE TIME, that is a fact, you also say cash out and in play are separate when they aren't as without in play odds you wouldn't get a suitable offer.  That's my final bit on the subject, you think it's a good thing where as I don't, if people want to cash out their bets then go ahead but like I've already said it's a short term gain but a long term loser if it's continued to be used on most punters bets, wish you and the others on here the very best with your betting.

To be fair, I dinna think that was yer original point. You said that no experienced bettor would ever use cash out. That's certainly the bit I found strange.

I don't think anyone would use cash out on "most" bets, they would define each bet separately and base their judgement on the specific detail at the time. You've got to assume that even yer average bettor is a risk taker really, and so cash outs are probably in the minority. I'd go further and say that most cash outs are likely instigated by the bettor rather than bookie due to doubts over their stake.

The problem you have is that you can't reliably measure the success of cash outs from a bookies perspective, because the bettor has to be in a position of refusal in order to measure that point of refusal. For example, if I put a bet on the dons to win 2-0 on Friday and went to the game and we were 2-0 up after 50 minutes, I could go online and check the cash out offer and choose to take it or not. If I accept and it remains 2-0 then we know the value "saved" by the bookie, similarly if I accept and a goal is scored we can see my gain. However, I could just as easily be pished and not check the status of that bet until full time. If Hertz pull a goal back or we score another, do we count me not taking the cash out that I never saw as a successful use of the cash out facility for the bookie? If so, what is the level of that success? Do we say that the maximum cash out odds were offered in the minute before Hertz/we scored, or do we take the cash out odds offered the minute after the second goal was scored, or before the second went in where I could have also got a portion of my 2-0 odds returned, or an average of all 3? You simply can't measure it as there's too much hidden/silent evidence that can't be quantified, because you're completely ignoring the overwhelming majority of bets where the bettor does not attempt to use the cash out facility whether in success or failure. Within our 2-0 example for instance, lets say the goals were in 82nd and 84th minutes. Those people who had a bet on 1-0 or 0-0 could conceivably have been offered cash out positions too and taken them or not. Do we count the number of bets not cashed out when the score was 0-0 and the bettor had 0-0 as a success for the bookie of the cash-out system or just a success of the normal win/loss process? Eh? Fars yer answers min? I'm fucking confused.

Edit: in Rocket/BBs syndicate, each of their successes can also - by definition - as a success to them over the cash out system, as they did not cash out (unless they did). Each loss is is also - by definition - a success for the bookie because they did not cash out.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 11:28:30 AM
The cash out option returns more money to the punter on bets that went on to lose than it saves in them cashing out before the bet goes on to win anyway. That's a fact.

Rhetoric such as short term gains and longer term losses when discussing the cash out concept illustrates a critical thinking breakdown. That's a fact too.

You also fail to comprehend that every bet has no value until it wins. Every bet is a stake lost, until it is realised either as a winning bet on completion or cashed out before completion. It has no "value" ever, other than to the punter who can decide whether or not to take the money early.

Sounds to me like a gullible perennially-losing punter has had his head stuffed full of mince.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 11:37:19 AM
Rico, I've cashed out twice with BB, costing us £6 or £7 cos they both went on to win anyway. It was the 88th minute when MK Dons and Pawlett were battering Blackburn at 1-2 the first one (and my team were only 1 up at the time) and just before Chelsea scored their 2nd on Sunday. So it cost us but no regrets for realising the bets when I did and taking out the risk of two losing stakes. That's the only twice we've done it in 17 or 18 bets.

I'm still 100% since our first double and last nights loss came after 5 straight winners. I'm going to bet a big chunk of our £90+ profit this Saturday on BB's Monaco and my Liverpool. And I've put more money than we've got in the bank on our "nailed on treble" with my mate who picked Dunfermline, plus a big stake on our communal picks, Ayr and Dunfermline. Just a funny time of the season though which I hopefully won't be saying I should've known after Saturday!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 25, 2018, 12:04:06 PM
Rico, I've cashed out twice with BB, costing us £6 or £7 cos they both went on to win anyway. It was the 88th minute when MK Dons and Pawlett were battering Blackburn at 1-2 the first one (and my team were only 1 up at the time) and just before Chelsea scored their 2nd on Sunday. So it cost us but no regrets for realising the bets when I did and taking out the risk of two losing stakes. That's the only twice we've done it in 17 or 18 bets.

But then you also didn't take cash out option when offered in all your other winnings, so they were a success too over the cash out system.

I suppose IMO the better way to look at it is an entirely new bet, and that's how I'd always view it. Completely forget about what the original bet was because it's entirely irrelevant to the new bet.

For example, if you put £10 on 1-0 with a £15 return in a game with ten minutes to go and you check yer cash out option and its £13.50, then you simply decide whether you want to gamble £13.50 on 0-0 over ten minutes for a £15 return as that is what your new bet is. I find that looking at it that way gives a more logical approach to it. It's no different then to any other "in-game" bet with an entirely new stake. If I'm watching a game, then I have the immediate (perceived) advantage of having a better understanding of what's going to happen next. I've bet on quite a few games that I've been watching on the telly when I have a suspicion that team X is going to stage a comeback or some such. This is no different.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 12:10:48 PM
The stupidest of all his many stupid points was the guy who took out £4,950 for a £10 stake wasn't getting "value" and that the bookie cheated him. For sure Man U would've been less than 1/2 at the time but who would've stuck 5k on them then? The punter didn't. He put a tenner on, which multiplied by six successes turned his £10 into 500/1 if he wanted to take it. Will he be kicking himself for not holding out for £7,400? Will he fuck. Will the bookies be clapping themselves on the backs for saving themselves £2,400? Will they fuck. They just lost a 500/1 punt. For every cash out (like this) they win on, there's many more that they lose.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 25, 2018, 01:06:03 PM
To be fair, I dinna think that was yer original point. You said that no experienced bettor would ever use cash out. That's certainly the bit I found strange.

I don't think anyone would use cash out on "most" bets, they would define each bet separately and base their judgement on the specific detail at the time. You've got to assume that even yer average bettor is a risk taker really, and so cash outs are probably in the minority. I'd go further and say that most cash outs are likely instigated by the bettor rather than bookie due to doubts over their stake.

The problem you have is that you can't reliably measure the success of cash outs from a bookies perspective, because the bettor has to be in a position of refusal in order to measure that point of refusal. For example, if I put a bet on the dons to win 2-0 on Friday and went to the game and we were 2-0 up after 50 minutes, I could go online and check the cash out offer and choose to take it or not. If I accept and it remains 2-0 then we know the value "saved" by the bookie, similarly if I accept and a goal is scored we can see my gain. However, I could just as easily be pished and not check the status of that bet until full time. If Hertz pull a goal back or we score another, do we count me not taking the cash out that I never saw as a successful use of the cash out facility for the bookie? If so, what is the level of that success? Do we say that the maximum cash out odds were offered in the minute before Hertz/we scored, or do we take the cash out odds offered the minute after the second goal was scored, or before the second went in where I could have also got a portion of my 2-0 odds returned, or an average of all 3? You simply can't measure it as there's too much hidden/silent evidence that can't be quantified, because you're completely ignoring the overwhelming majority of bets where the bettor does not attempt to use the cash out facility whether in success or failure. Within our 2-0 example for instance, lets say the goals were in 82nd and 84th minutes. Those people who had a bet on 1-0 or 0-0 could conceivably have been offered cash out positions too and taken them or not. Do we count the number of bets not cashed out when the score was 0-0 and the bettor had 0-0 as a success for the bookie of the cash-out system or just a success of the normal win/loss process? Eh? Fars yer answers min? I'm fucking confused.

Edit: in Rocket/BBs syndicate, each of their successes can also - by definition - as a success to them over the cash out system, as they did not cash out (unless they did). Each loss is is also - by definition - a success for the bookie because they did not cash out.
I'm friends with a lot of guys that bet full time, most making a lot of money each year, they won't use cash out as it's not the value play, they'll hedge or trade their positions to make as much as possible and remain in control of the bet, there's plenty examples online now that many get stung by cash out, most recent one 2 weeks ago was a guy that cashed out his £1 bet for 64p, bet then came in and the return was over £1000, people like that probably shouldn't bet, I also know a guy I went to school with that cashes out at the first chance he gets which in the long run is a massive loser.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 25, 2018, 01:09:37 PM
The stupidest of all his many stupid points was the guy who took out £4,950 for a £10 stake wasn't getting "value" and that the bookie cheated him. For sure Man U would've been less than 1/2 at the time but who would've stuck 5k on them then? The punter didn't. He put a tenner on, which multiplied by six successes turned his £10 into 500/1 if he wanted to take it. Will he be kicking himself for not holding out for £7,400? Will he fuck. Will the bookies be clapping themselves on the backs for saving themselves £2,400? Will they fuck. They just lost a 500/1 punt. For every cash out (like this) they win on, there's many more that they lose.
as ever you go with the insults, I thought you were past all of that shit?  Never mind, you genuinely think the guys bets was worth £4950 at the time, it wasn't, it was worth over £5000, that's where the bookie then makes a little extra and that's why they like people that cash out, I'd even go as far to say that over a football season bookies will be saving a fair amount through cash out
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 01:49:01 PM
as ever you go with the insults, I thought you were past all of that shit? 

It's not insults. I said that your points were stupid. Either they are or they are not.

I even pointed out why they were stupid and I went further, I told you where they had come from.

On the contrary, I invested time trying to help you, to get you to understand.

Here's a quote from Steve Jobs. You probably use one of his products: -

"That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains".

So let's cut the bullshit and let's think clean. The bullshit is your pride and it is once again your fragility in self-confidence and your lack of intellect but at least half of them over on the hat are thicker than you are so take comfort from this fact. It's not my fault that you struggle to comprehend. Ok, I could be gentler with you but this is Aberdeen, we say it how it is. Trust me, I could be much more coorse too but your failing to grasp simple concepts and repeating something that someone told you doesn't cut any ice. As a pro punter yourself, you could have at least used numbers and scenarios to bolster your argument but none were forthcoming.


Never mind, you genuinely think the guys bets was worth £4950 at the time, it wasn't, it was worth over £5000, that's where the bookie then makes a little extra and that's why they like people that cash out, I'd even go as far to say that over a football season bookies will be saving a fair amount through cash out

In the spirit of keeping it simple, the bet wasn't worth £4,950 at that time. It wasn't "worth" anything. The only transaction had been a £10 stake and on anything above 2 or 3/1 shots, let alone accas and 740/1 shots like this, the bets lose the vast majority of the time.

The bookie didn't "make any extra". The bookie lost 4,950, for a tenner! There was a chance he might have made a tenner if Man U didn't win, and if the other six stakes hadn't too but we live in the age of the cash-out option and as I have proved this season, it has worked for us. But my example is irrelevant. Big data informs us that it works for punters and it works against the bookies, thanks to the first bookie who introduced it. The bookies who tell you that cashing out is good for them are dishonest people by nature and why would they give you free advice anyway, unlike me?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 25, 2018, 01:54:30 PM
I'm friends with a lot of guys that bet full time, most making 6figures a year, they won't use cash out as it's not the value play, they'll hedge or trade their positions to make as much as possible and remain in control of the bet, there's plenty examples online now that many get stung by cash out, most recent one 2 weeks ago was a guy that cashed out his £1 bet for 64p, bet then came in and the return was over £1000, people like that probably shouldn't bet, I also know a guy I went to school with that cashes out at the first chance he gets which in the long run is a massive loser.

Obviously that's a terrible example, a bit like using the example of the obese manny fa lived til he was 100 as a reason to not eat healthily. Anyone who cashes out a £1 bet probably shouldn't bet as you say. Although the bookie still has not won anymore then 36p on this occasion, they just didn't lose £999.36 in the process. Similarly your mate who always cashes out isn't a good illustration of the intelligent gambler.

You suggest that people trade or hedge their positions, that's the bit I'm not familiar with in modern betting. I understood that you could do this on Betfair (the inventors of the cash out I believe), but I wasn't aware you could trade a Bet365/WillieHill bet for example. In other words, if I don't use Betfair then my only choice is cash out or bet the offered stake on the remaining bet (which is what yer doing). If I only use Betfair then perhaps I'm limiting my initial odds as a result? I dinna get the bit where you say they never use it, that's the part that's confusing me. At that point they have already decided that they want to cash out (going by yer six figure sum suggestion, they're clearly not just ditching their bet if they think they're going to lose through pride or something). Are there channels not available to me as an occasional bettor that they're using? Or do they just always use Betfair?

To clarify too, bookies don't save money through cash out, they just don't lose as much, it's a very important distinction. Also, "they like people that cash out", isnae really a thing (other than yer mate) is it? People are not "cashers-out" or "non-cashers-out" surely? That must be something that is on a per-game basis, rather than per-gambler basis? Rocket being an example, could not be classed as a "casher-out", but does cash out on individual games. Anyone that cashes out every single time is clearly a moron and shouldn't be the basis of this conversation. Or was yer point not actually "never cash out" but "don't cash out unless you feel you'll otherwise lose and you can't trade your bet", in which case I think you, me and Rocket are probably all in agreement.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 01:56:04 PM
I'm friends with a lot of guys that bet full time, most making a lot of money each year, they won't use cash out as it's not the value play, they'll hedge or trade their positions to make as much as possible and remain in control of the bet

Now here's language with a suggestion that you might know what you're talking about.

Do you use betting exchanges yourself?

Please paint a scenario using numbers where you laid off and/or bet additionally to negate the use of the cash out option.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 25, 2018, 02:52:08 PM
Now here's language with a suggestion that you might know what you're talking about.

Do you use betting exchanges yourself?

Please paint a scenario using numbers where you laid off and/or bet additionally to negate the use of the cash out option.
If I didn't know what I was talking about I wouldn't be arguing it, as I said earlier when there are guys that used to RUN bookies that tell me cash out is terrible value, of course my opinion is going to lean towards theirs.  There's a lot I could say but won't as it's unfair but I've worked in the industry and been playing it for 13 years now, I know a lot more than I let on.

As for an example, Gary Anderson when he won his first world championship, I had bet him at 16/1 on the betfair exchange, I managed to lay a little off to get just more than my stake back and still have the chance of a considerable win if he managed to deliver the goods, however had I just cashed out I'd have maybe gotten 3x my stake and that was it.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 25, 2018, 02:54:32 PM
Also find it a little silly that you think a bet is worth nothing until a final action is taken, if that was the case bookmakers wouldn't be trying to entice you to part with the bet early and the punter wouldn't be watching the cashout value move up and down during the event.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 03:04:53 PM
If I didn't know what I was talking about I wouldn't be arguing it, as I said earlier when there are guys that used to RUN bookies that tell me cash out is terrible value, of course my opinion is going to lean towards theirs.  There's a lot I could say but won't as it's unfair but I've worked in the industry and been playing it for 13 years now, I know a lot more than I let on.

As for an example, Gary Anderson when he won his first world championship, I had bet him at 16/1 on the betfair exchange, I managed to lay a little off to get just more than my stake back and still have the chance of a considerable win if he managed to deliver the goods, however had I just cashed out I'd have maybe gotten 3x my stake and that was it.

You contested something I said. You came on here and took issue with what I wrote.

I asked you to explain yourself. Now I am certain that you are unable to.

You're not "arguing" anything. All you've said is that cash out is "terrible value". This is nonsense. It makes no sense. Laying part of our likely winnings to recover stakes on the original bet is what betting exchanges are all about. The cash out options which appear in front of 99% of punters in the UK on their non-exchange sites is what we are talking about and how can they ever be classed as terrible value without giving an example, numerically? You argued that the bet the NE mannie cashed out wasn't worth 4,950 but you fail to say where you get this opinion of yours from?

Why would your opinion lean towards what anyone says without doing the due diligence for yourself?

That is insane. This is how governments run countries. They bank on our laziness and our stupidity.

There's a lot more you could say? You can't even back up what you said about a very simple concept. Worked in the industry? Fuck off. Nobody this stupid ever gets near a numeracy-based industry. You know more than you let on? Official secrets is it? You speak shite, as per the very first post to you on this thread, the one which you started by coming over oh so clever and now oh so secret.

Idiot.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 03:12:30 PM
Also find it a little silly that you think a bet is worth nothing until a final action is taken, if that was the case bookmakers wouldn't be trying to entice you to part with the bet early and the punter wouldn't be watching the cashout value move up and down during the event.

This is because you have no critical thinking ability. You can't do what Steve Jobs demands.

An offer is an offer. The worth or value of any bet is only determined when it is realised.

They're not enticing us. They have been forced to provide offers because the first one did it and the average punter is an intellectual retard who gets off on the power of the cash out without ever knowing whether it represents a good deal or not. But the algorithms that make up the cash out offers aren't magic nor black art, as nothing ever is to anyone who is numerate.

I wouldn't have cashed out that tenner for £1,500 or £2,500 when there was £7,400 on the table. That's taking the piss. But I would have at £4,000, as I'm guessing every moron would who deals in multiple accas and 740 to 1 shots. So the bookie didn't need to offer as much as they did but they don't sit there monitoring individual bets. It's an algorithm, naturally written in their favour but always reasonable enough not to lose face. McBookie's algorithms are much tighter than bet365's for their cash-outs so they will lose less over the course of a year than 365 will, even proportionately as their revenue is so much smaller.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 25, 2018, 03:16:32 PM
Also find it a little silly that you think a bet is worth nothing until a final action is taken, if that was the case bookmakers wouldn't be trying to entice you to part with the bet early and the punter wouldn't be watching the cashout value move up and down during the event.

But of course it is worth nothing until a final action is taken, that's a fact. You're being offered money based entirely on the value of something that might happen at a point in time, just like you are placing a bet based on odds at a point in time. As soon as you place the bet it is worth nothing - to you - until some other action takes place.

It's pretty easily demonstrated:

Put £10 in betting account

Bet £10, betting account = nothing

Bet wins, betting account = bet x odds

Bet loses, betting account = nothing

Bet cashed out, betting account = cash out value

At no other point will you receive money into your betting account.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 25, 2018, 03:19:09 PM
The reason my opinion is likely to lean with the guys I talk to isn't because I'm lazy it's because they've explained exactly what the reasoning behind cash out is, you can do it in shops now, shops have self service betting terminals which runs off of online which allows customers to cash out, managers will use 'cash out' as a good reason as to why you should use those machines instead of doing a traditional paper coupon.

as for mcbookie I realise they are smaller, Bet365 are the kings of online betting, Mcbookie banned me from betting with them as did their parent company betvictor.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 25, 2018, 03:22:15 PM
The reason my opinion is likely to lean with the guys I talk to isn't because I'm lazy it's because they've explained exactly what the reasoning behind cash out is, you can do it in shops now, shops have self service betting terminals which runs off of online which allows customers to cash out, managers will use 'cash out' as a good reason as to why you should use those machines instead of doing a traditional paper coupon.

as for mcbookie I realise they are smaller, Bet365 are the kings of online betting, Mcbookie banned me from betting with them as did their parent company betvictor.

Why? Did you send them a jobby?

Surely using the terminals is about data collection?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 25, 2018, 03:42:21 PM
It's like dealing with an infant, isn't it?

Frightening how "adults" can go around like this. There are millions like him.
Millions like me that have won enough money to not worry about doing a proper job for a few years whilst betting and watching sports every day, yup, millions.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 03:57:02 PM
HAHAHA you are one of the worst, hence why you post on here cause you kept posting about others on the hat.

 As for the step dad thing, it's you that's making shit up now, enjoy your day.

You can get off with your inability to back up what you said and your preposterous claims of knowledge you never had on the hat but you don't get off with it here. Your statement that "others know betting better than you and me" was an admission that there are, in fact, people on the planet that understand simple concepts that you can't grasp.

Get back to your sofa and let real life continue to pass you by.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 25, 2018, 03:59:17 PM
Bookmakers make you an offer depending on the likelihood of the opposite happening, depending on how long is left in the match, you are maybe being offered 97% of your total returns but that's probably 1-2% less than what the bet is actually worth at the time, stick at it mate, I'll be a sheep and follow what traders and execs have said.

Aye, but that also has zero value to the bookie until you accept it. It's entirely notional. It is, for all intents and purposes, a new bet. Just as the bookie will not count your original bet as income until such times as you've lost that bet, the cash out cannot be assigned actual value until it has been accepted.

But, can I go back to my question again? Can I put my William Hill/Bet365 etc bet on some sort of exchange? Or is cash out my only option if I use non-Betfair account?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on April 25, 2018, 04:19:29 PM
https://sportstradinglife.com/2015/03/is-cash-out-actually-bad-for-punters/
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 04:32:05 PM
https://sportstradinglife.com/2015/03/is-cash-out-actually-bad-for-punters/

Oh jesus. Do you believe everything you read?

You know who wrote it yes? You know why they wrote it yes?

Did you see any numbers to back up their propaganda?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 25, 2018, 06:59:00 PM
Interesting one just now. Double on our fav German team KFC Uerdingen 05 who are 2-0 up away at 4/6 with Havant & Waterlooville tonight at 1/4.

£40 double, cash out offered £67.21 at HT just now. Not taking it obviously as it's our "nailed on" double but those of you who aren't mathematically challenged will appreciate that 40 x 4/6 = 66.67, less than the offer. And it's not even in yet! So the offer is MORE than the original bet.

Why? Simple. The algorithms are built to cover all eventualities and when Havant & W's odds have dropped so dramatically, from the 1/4 we got them at v. 1/7 now, of course they're going to want to minimise their losses.

My other double running just now are Schweinfurt 05, also at 4/6 but with H & W at 1/7. 5-2 up after 66 mins, the cash out offer is 1.581 so there's no mystery about cash outs. It's all been written into the programming. The ONLY thing that matters is whether or not to use the option and that depends on the circumstances of each individual stake and is a decision for the punter only. How not having the option can benefit us is a ridiculous argument that only a thick cunt would try, or a party with a vested interest of course.

Edit: Borussia M II get one back, now 1-2 v KFC U 05. Cash out now 61.73 after 60 minutes. Again, exactly what we might expect given that it only takes one goal from the home side to sink our £40 stake. No chance I'm cashing out ever on this double. KFC won 7-0 the first time I backed them :)

1-3 now, 68.07 offered.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: tlg1903 on April 25, 2018, 08:13:59 PM
I really can't believe how much time y'all have wasted on that debate.  Interesting read in parts though so fair dues on that.    My tuppeny bits worth would be that cash out started as a means to get more people betting with which ever sight first came up with it and all the others then followed suit.  I really can't see it making or losing the bookies anything particularly significant.  Ultimately it's just like betting, it's great if your bet was destined to lose and not so if not. I've used it a few times and I'm up because of it.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 28, 2018, 04:41:40 AM
As I said at the start of the thread, finding value is the key. It doesn't matter what the bet is nor what the market is, it's the likelihood of the event that you're betting on happening against the odds offered that matters and this is always in the eye of the beholder, the punter.

Bookies make mistakes and the best time to find them is when the first sites post up. I've long been advocating putting bets on early, up to a week in advance and whilst sometimes this can bite you as the odds improve towards kick off, more often than not you get much better returns.

Examples; as I said we got Havant & Waterlooville at 1/4 this week and they came in to 1/7 before kick off. 1.25 isn't quite double 1.143 but it's a massive difference. Today we've got a more than double situation. I put Dunfermline in a number of bets at 4/11 at the start of the week. They're 1/7 now. 1.364 is a two and a half times bigger return which is why the £78.13 cash out offered on our £75 double isn't value, neither is the £37.44 being offered on another £35 double which includes Dunfermline, both doubles on Saturday games.

When your Cash out offers are more than your stakes on bets that haven't run yet, you've done a job on the bookie, whatever the outcome.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 28, 2018, 05:01:17 AM
Has anyone got any in-play strategies? I'm starting to look at heavily-fancied teams who don't score in the first 10 or 15 minutes. My impression is that we can get more than double or three times the value (if they don't score early and it's still 0-0). Better still if the opposition score like Sunderland at Fulham last night.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 30, 2018, 08:39:09 AM
Right, I just spotted that I had £60 in my bet365 account. Fit's the recommendations for this week?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on April 30, 2018, 09:21:39 AM
Right, I just spotted that I had £60 in my bet365 account. Fit's the recommendations for this week?

Cash out.

 ;)
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BigAl on April 30, 2018, 09:27:49 AM
Cash out.

 ;)

 :lolabove:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 30, 2018, 09:55:23 AM

  :laughing: Good one sir!

It must've been there for about two years, so I've nae missed it. Taking the money and running would more than likely be the best option given that I don't have any time to properly assess the current fitba markets. It'll probably go on 2-0 the dons with Shinnie first scorer instead though.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 30, 2018, 11:04:31 AM
Sticking £60 on a bet like that is tantamount to giving them your money.

Given the time of season - football wise - cash out is probably is the safest thing to do. There are some crazy results happening as there always are in the final month.

Example; BB and I on Saturday had our first time where both our picks lost and they weren't earning us much to begin with, Liverpool and Monaco. Fortunately our Feyenoord and Atatlanta came in yesterday to prevent 3 losses in a row but £85 up after 13/20 doubles, we won't be punting big stakes over the next couple of weeks.

I've got 3 "nailed on doubles" running plus a "nailed on treble" venture with 3 of us 4, all of which are in profit, by proportionately very similar amounts depending on how long we've been doing them and providing an overall balance of just over £500, which has stalled over the last 2/3 weeks. On the most recently started, my mate suggested PSG for his pick yesterday and I did something I've not done before and questioned the wisdom of it. I texted back they're 1/12? He went Lecce instead (at 2/11) which came in to put us back up to £45 profit whereas PSG failed to win last night. On our NOD which has been running for 4 months, we lost £105 on Saturday (thanks to my dumbass Liverpool pick - who didn't have to win) but got back £71 of it yesterday thanks to his Sporting Hee Hon and my Feyenoord. We are starting to fish in the European lower leagues now though. The additional £35 double on Ayr and Dunfermline which saved our losing treble stake on Saturday is probably the last of the really predictable nailed on stuff in Scotland, although I did have Celtic at 4/9 yesterday to complete a couple of trebles running over last week.

Money in the bank just now should stay there if football betting is your thing.

Edit: Rico, I'm not saying that Aberdeen won't win 2-0 and that Shinnie won't score first. I hope you're right but the chances of being able to predict both the correct score AND the first scorer are so remote and this is a massive market earner for the bookies. The "scorecast" returns are never worth anything like the double of correct score AND first scorer, which they don't allow you to put on these days (I think). A typical example of punters being sucked in by 80 or 125 to 1 whereas even by their own books, the returns on these type of doubles should be double plus.

Having said that, I got a text from my PSG/Lecce mate with 15 minutes to go saying he was waiting on 2-1 Man U for a grand. I asked what was the stake/what was this coming on top of/is there a cash out available and he replied "Free bet with bet victor scorer time and result". Happy days but how often can we ever expect a punt like that to come in? If being serious about making money from the bookies is the goal, speculative stuff like correct scores and first scorers is pissing money away.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 30, 2018, 12:05:18 PM
Edit: Rico, I'm not saying that Aberdeen won't win 2-0 and that Shinnie won't score first. I hope you're right but the chances of being able to predict both the correct score AND the first scorer are so remote and this is a massive market earner for the bookies. The "scorecast" returns are never worth anything like the double of correct score AND first scorer, which they don't allow you to put on these days (I think). A typical example of punters being sucked in by 80 or 125 to 1 whereas even by their own books, the returns on these type of doubles should be double plus.

Having said that, I got a text from my PSG/Lecce mate with 15 minutes to go saying he was waiting on 2-1 Man U for a grand. I asked what was the stake/what was this coming on top of/is there a cash out available and he replied "Free bet with bet victor scorer time and result". Happy days but how often can we ever expect a punt like that to come in? If being serious about making money from the bookies is the goal, speculative stuff like correct scores and first scorers is pissing money away.

I was just joking about the dons, but yer second paragraph actually makes me think twice about it... given I had no idea I had the £60 in that account, I'm pretty much treating it as a free bet.

However, I'm not confident the dons will win 2-0, nor Shinnie get the first, so I'll probably have a swatch around at the other games later in the week and see fit the deal is. I'll maybe try something more long term like you guys have been doing, with a system in place until I inevitably lose all the money during the world cup.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 30, 2018, 12:12:06 PM
I was just joking about the dons, but yer second paragraph actually makes me think twice about it... given I had no idea I had the £60 in that account, I'm pretty much treating it as a free bet.

However, I'm not confident the dons will win 2-0, nor Shinnie get the first, so I'll probably have a swatch around at the other games later in the week and see fit the deal is. I'll maybe try something more long term like you guys have been doing, with a system in place until I inevitably lose all the money during the world cup.

The World Cup is a betting graveyard.

I've stuck on Juventus next Saturday in a couple of doubles, with Blackburn on Sat and with Fulham on Sunday. The latter pays almost evens so even if you stuck a tenner on some odds on stuff, a short-priced double coming in would mean you've got 70 to play with rather than 60, and away you go... for next season.

The fact you forgot you had it doesn't mean you should piss it away. It's still money, their money that you can realise or add to. I've often stuck a remaining balance on a last punt. I did it on a Saturday in fact and got very lucky with a late Peterhead winner (2/9 ffs) to keep one of my bookie accounts alive.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 30, 2018, 12:25:02 PM
Since you're on bet365, I strongly suggest you take Juventus at 1/6 today. I predict that their price will crash during the week as the big money and the pro punters lump on. Doubles with anything else. 1/6 is great value.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 30, 2018, 01:37:38 PM
Since you're on bet365, I strongly suggest you take Juventus at 1/6 today. I predict that their price will crash during the week as the big money and the pro punters lump on. Doubles with anything else. 1/6 is great value.

Too late!

I went for a Spurs and Sevilla double (tonight and Friday) at roughly evens. Plus £20 on Judd Trump in the snooker, who then proceeded to go quickly into a frame deficit after missing an easy blue. I thought I'd nip in before the odds reduced on potting the blue. Snooker is a stupid one, but it happened to be on whilst I was placing my other bet!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on April 30, 2018, 01:45:27 PM
Hmmm... Sevilla who haven't won in their last 8 and Sociedad who won 4 of their last 5?

You can explain the rationale how that represents good value at 3/4 when it comes in.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on April 30, 2018, 03:10:35 PM
You can explain the rationale how that represents good value at 3/4 when it comes in.

No. No I can't.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on May 18, 2018, 08:52:46 AM
No. No I can't.

So it turns out that last bet won. I just remembered about it today when speaking to a colleague about betting, which shows just how much effort I put into my betting.

(Un)Fortunately this means that I now have over £100 in my gambling account, and still nae idea. Given the price of high class whoors these days, I'd rather attempt to make a bit more before cashing out (or, more likely, losing it all). I was hoping to have a couple of hundred quid in there in time for the world cup so that I can make more spectacular losing bets throughout that tournament. Any suggestions on bets for the wikend?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on May 18, 2018, 09:16:44 AM
I noticed Sevilla beat Sociedad, and then beat Real Madrid shortly after  :o

As you know, you have to make your own decisions on punting. It's the silly season now though as we always see some crazy results now that the bigger pictures have been decided e.g. Aberdeen winning at Celtic, Man C and PSG failing at heavily odds-on etc.

The last great value bet of the season for me was Atletico beating Marseille, including 10/3 HT FT in-play. I've already paid out the guys in our doubles syndicates including BB from here. The amount I paid the three of them was directly proportional to how long we've been doing it for as after all, my picks were the same in each.

I don't trust the World Cup for betting. Too many unexpected draws. Having said that, I do have some match bets on already (thought Russia at 1/3 was good value) and three of us are starting with a wee pot for the tournament just to see how we go.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on May 19, 2018, 10:30:28 AM
So it turns out that last bet won. I just remembered about it today when speaking to a colleague about betting, which shows just how much effort I put into my betting.

(Un)Fortunately this means that I now have over £100 in my gambling account, and still nae idea. Given the price of high class whoors these days, I'd rather attempt to make a bit more before cashing out (or, more likely, losing it all). I was hoping to have a couple of hundred quid in there in time for the world cup so that I can make more spectacular losing bets throughout that tournament. Any suggestions on bets for the wikend?

A Celtic/Man U double must have a decent chance?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on May 28, 2018, 04:21:41 PM
Huesca yesterday were 4/1 at home to Gimnastic. Look at the league table to know that that's a crazy price. When it's too good to be true, it usually is so I ignored it. Right enough, a late away goal, a home red card and an away win. Bookies do make mistakes but not to that extent. The innocent explanation might be that someone punted massive on Gimnastic but whatever the reason, it stinks badly.

Today on the other hand, I'm getting offered 15% more than my stake as a cash out on Bayreuth. I got them at 10/11. They're now down to 1/2. It pays to study form.

Edit: Bizarre. Bet365 paid out my Coventry single. At full price! 2-0 with at least 25 minutes to go!
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on May 29, 2018, 07:28:40 PM
Bet365 have the promotion where they pay out on most football games if your team goes 2-0 up or has a two goal lead.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: CtS on May 29, 2018, 07:54:18 PM
Minijc!!  :wave: 

Blast from the past, hope you’re good son.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on May 29, 2018, 07:59:35 PM
Minijc!!  :wave: 

Blast from the past, hope you’re good son.  :thumbsup:
Pretty good mate, just enjoying some freedom, hope all is well with you pal.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on June 01, 2018, 10:06:37 AM
Biggest British flat race this weekend, The Derby, soft ground far from ideal but it suits two that I really like, the draw is an issue for the fav but if one horse could over come that then it is Saxon Warrior just not for me in a betting sense at that price with a couple of negatives against it.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on June 01, 2018, 11:03:55 AM
Biggest British flat race this weekend, The Derby, soft ground far from ideal but it suits two that I really like, the draw is an issue for the fav but if one horse could over come that then it is Saxon Warrior just not for me in a betting sense at that price with a couple of negatives against it.

You're going to have to be more certain please. I'm looking for something definite.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on June 01, 2018, 02:00:39 PM
Ok, I like Dee Ex Bee for a pl,ace, but best to wait until tomorrow when you'll get 4 places at 1/4 the odds.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on June 14, 2018, 12:23:31 PM
Justin Rose (14/1) and Ricky Fowler (18/1/) both worth a couple of quid at the US Open
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on June 14, 2018, 02:25:12 PM
I just put £20 on Kairat Almaty to win, returning £40. It had just started so couldn't get the double with the Ruskies. I'll update you all on my progress.

I have also thon big defender (al' cunt) to score and thon non-injured striker for Russia. Argentina to win the world cup, Jesus to be top scorer (because he's fuckin Jesus) and other assorted pish just to liven up an otherwise boring tournament. It won't be boring, it's just I have fatigue from last season still.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on June 14, 2018, 08:22:24 PM
Had a decent go on Russia -1 today, Saudis the worst side in the tournament, doesn't help that a lot of their players had hardly played since December due to going to Spain to train and play for clubs there but they all failed to get selected due to being shite.

As for outright betting, Uruguay my main punt e/w now, it was going to be Spain with Uruguay as a saver but due to the managerial change at Spain I made a much smaller bet.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on June 14, 2018, 11:08:25 PM
Jesus to be top scorer (because he's fuckin Jesus)

That not the sort of thing that repulses you..??  ;)

Took Spain some weeks ago to win, don't expect that to happen now.

Top scorer bets: Griezman, Jesus and Muller, was pretty delighted i got 33/1 for Muller.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on June 15, 2018, 08:30:13 AM
That not the sort of thing that repulses you..??  ;)

 :thumbsup:

Took me an age to get that.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on June 15, 2018, 12:55:37 PM
Uruguay -1 my first bet of the day
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on July 04, 2018, 11:25:51 AM
For those who like an outside punt you can get 16/1 on Uruguay to lift the cup.

Worth a fiver maybe.  ???
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on August 29, 2018, 11:21:24 AM
T Woods 11/10 for a top 20 finish this weekend.

Easy money. 

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on August 29, 2018, 04:20:16 PM
My £20 Four Games Both Teams To Score Coupon came up for me on Saturday!!!! A 91ST MINUTE CONSOLATION GOAL from Plymouth Argyle as they lost 5-1 at home to Peterborough United and then some 94TH MINUTE OWN GOAL BY NORTHAMPTON TOWN regarding their game with Colchester United finishing 2-1 has seen us bouncing off said living room walls.  Also had AFC Wimbledon 1 v 2 Sunderland and Havant & Waterlooville 1 v 1 Salford City.

Why one does love our beautiful game so much.  Returned £176.46 like.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on August 29, 2018, 04:48:28 PM
Liking that SeaBass.

Looks like Sunderland and Peterborough could be worth a punt most weeks this season.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on August 29, 2018, 08:00:46 PM
I'm fairly hopeful my Celebrity Big Brother bet will be up in a fortnight or so.  I usually do five or six people to make Final Night.  I've got £10 e/w (8/1), (1/4) odds 1, 2, 3 on Kirstie Alley and really hoping our £7.50 e/w (7/1), (1/4) odds 1, 2, 3 on Dan Osborne gives me at least 2nd and 3rd.  Also did Hardeep Singh Kohli (I've been on stage with him at The Maltings in Berwick-upon-Tweed), Nick Leeson, Gabby Allen and Jermaine Pennant. 

I think I'll lose Hardeep and Jermaine before Finale possibly even Gabby too.  I just do it for a laugh seeing as programme is our guilty pleasure.  Had winner 12 times from the nineteen series made. 
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on September 10, 2018, 10:10:09 PM
I'm fairly hopeful my Celebrity Big Brother bet will be up in a fortnight or so.  I usually do five or six people to make Final Night.  I've got £10 e/w (8/1), (1/4) odds 1, 2, 3 on Kirstie Alley and really hoping our £7.50 e/w (7/1), (1/4) odds 1, 2, 3 on Dan Osborne gives me at least 2nd and 3rd.  Also did Hardeep Singh Kohli (I've been on stage with him at The Maltings in Berwick-upon-Tweed), Nick Leeson Gabby Allen and Jermaine Pennant. 

I think I'll lose Hardeep and Jermaine before Finale possibly even Gabby too.  I just do it for a laugh seeing as programme is our guilty pleasure.  Had winner 12 times from the nineteen series made.

Great punting Seabass. Dan 3rd. Think Ryan will beat Kirstie though.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on September 10, 2018, 10:12:47 PM
I put on 4 x Scotland Kazakhstan doubles in-play before Scotland scored the first. Got 8-11 and 13/10 on the 4th bet.

Cashed them all out as soon as K scored to make 2.9/3. Who said cashing out was a mugs game?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: Ten Caat on September 11, 2018, 10:17:01 AM
Except that Scotland were playing Albania. And Albania didn't score  :dunno:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: RicoS321 on September 11, 2018, 10:53:50 AM
Except that Scotland were playing Albania. And Albania didn't score  :dunno:

That's why he cashed in.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: Ten Caat on September 11, 2018, 11:32:42 AM
Ive just got what he meant. Was too busy concentrating on my bacon roll to see he meant Scotland and Kazakhstan not Scotland v Kazakhstan. Duh
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on September 11, 2018, 11:00:23 PM
My Celebrity Big Brother bet 'came up' but was down on our month long punt.  With Dan finishing 3rd (7/1) and Kirstie 2nd (8/1) a quarter odds...1, 2, 3.  Ryan even before 'Punchgate' wasn't worth backing but did get 4th with Nick and Gabby 6th in Final from one's five picks on Launch Night.  Only Jermaine Pennant failed me.   
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: minijc on September 12, 2018, 10:10:20 PM
I put on 4 x Scotland Kazakhstan doubles in-play before Scotland scored the first. Got 8-11 and 13/10 on the 4th bet.

Cashed them all out as soon as K scored to make 2.9/3. Who said cashing out was a mugs game?
I did and I still stand by it, bookies love it and love people using it hence why it's offered but never mind what I think, well done.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on September 17, 2018, 09:05:58 AM
Noticed that Cardiff are 18/1 to win at HOME against Man City on Saturday.

Mental.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: Ten Caat on September 17, 2018, 09:12:47 AM
Will you be having a nibble at that price then?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on September 17, 2018, 10:19:40 AM
I did and I still stand by it, bookies love it and love people using it hence why it's offered but never mind what I think, well done.

Are you being obstinate, impressionable or unintelligent?

Or maybe what you've been told can be substantiated by data? I don't know, I don't work in the industry.

At least try to explain how the cash out option works in the bookies favour and how a late Andorra equaliser would not have sunk my in-play doubles?
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on September 17, 2018, 07:49:56 PM
Will you be having a nibble at that price then?

Think I'll keep my money in the pocket on this occasion TC but it's priced up like Cardiff are about three divisions lower.

Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on September 17, 2018, 08:29:35 PM
Think I'll keep my money in the pocket on this occasion TC but it's priced up like Cardiff are about three divisions lower.

It is indeed an unusually big price for any team in the EPL and as long odds as I can remember for a home win. But the chances of it happening are considerably more than 25/1 in the minds in the bookies and they don't get it wrong too often. It's the fools backing Citeh at 1/6 in their multi accas who feed them. Whilst it represents a fair price, there's tiny value in backing aways at such short odds because they don't always come in.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: kiriakovisthenewstrachan on September 21, 2018, 04:02:51 PM
Dons are 23/25 for the home win tomorrow.  Not bad actually.

I reckon our form is about to improve.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: BobbyBiscuit on September 21, 2018, 07:48:47 PM
Dons are 23/25 for the home win tomorrow.  Not bad actually.

I reckon our form is about to improve.

Motherwell have bullied us too often too recently for me to touch the Dons at that price but let's hope you're right  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: manc_don on September 22, 2018, 07:16:34 AM
Dons are 23/25 for the home win tomorrow.  Not bad actually.

I reckon our form is about to improve.

:fingerscrossedsmilie:  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: rocket_scientist on September 22, 2018, 09:34:47 AM
Motherwell have bullied us too often too recently for me to touch the Dons at that price but let's hope you're right  :thumbsup:

I couldn't agree more. Every football match is a 3 horse race. The home, draw or away are the only 3 possibilities and therefore 2/1 per outcome are the mathematical possibilities before probabilities get factored in by the bookies. A home win price at less than half the possible outcomes isn't good value for Pittodrie today in my book unlike the likes of Peterhead, Portsmouth, Leeds and Cowdenbeath who are all less than evens for the home win. Even Arbroath and Bayern away at less odds than AFC today represent greater value for me but if it was all totally predictable, we would all skin the bookies every week and the only certainty every month and every season is that the bookies make major profits.
Title: Re: Betting
Post by: SeeBass on September 23, 2018, 11:40:08 PM
Another £10 Both Teams To Score coupon up yesterday.  Charlton Athletic 2 v 1 Plymouth Argyle, Morcambe 2 v 1 Macclesfield Town, Oldham Athletic 3 v 3 Colchester United and Gillingham 2 v 4 Peterborough United.