Author Topic: Betting  (Read 11413 times)

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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #160 on: April 24, 2018, 06:35:34 PM »
Previous experience of seeing large offers for cash outs, I'll go back 2 seasons when Liverpool were 2-0 up on Southampton, bet my friends and I had on was returning roughly £2300, at 2-0 the cash out was around £1800 where as the true value was almost £2000, numbers are rough as it was a fair while back but it wasn't value to cash out at that amount.

You're confused. A cash out is an offer. It is an offer by the bookie for you to realise the bet, to end the contingency. Of course it will ALWAYS BE LESS than what we would get if we let the contingency run.

But the "value" of the offer is only in the decision-making of the offeree. An average punter is a stupid animal and he will lack knowledge of numbers. But the bet has no value until it is realised. An offer to realise will ALWAYS be in favour of the offeror and as we've now learned, to a specific percentage of every running multiple bet before the final leg.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #161 on: April 24, 2018, 08:39:25 PM »
I put a single on Reims at 7/5 for the away tonight. 3-1 up after 78 minutes, the cash out = 95.7% of the return.

I'm not taking it but is this "heavily stacked" in the bookies favour?

What should it be minijc?

Edit: having just made it 1-4, the cash out is over 99%. Is this wrong too?

Edit: I've got a single on Cardiff @ 9/5 and 1-0 up at HT, the cash out is 1.734. What should it be?

5 minutes into the 2nd half, the cash out has increased to 1.782. When should I cash out mini?

1.868 after 55 mins. 1.940 after 59 mins. 1.978 after 62. Evens after 66.

0.432 after the equaliser.

Now can you see how the cash out button works mini?
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 09:13:35 PM by rocket_scientist »
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Offline RicoS321

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Re: Betting
« Reply #162 on: April 24, 2018, 09:44:45 PM »
5 minutes into the 2nd half, the cash out has increased to 1.782. When should I cash out mini?

1.868 after 55 mins. 1.940 after 59 mins. 1.978 after 62. Evens after 66.

0.432 after the equaliser.

Now can you see how the cash out button works mini?

You should have cashed oot min.


Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #163 on: April 24, 2018, 09:50:48 PM »
I know the numbers and I know how the bookies work with cash out

But if I had cashed out at even money just before the Derby equaliser, I would have been better off surely?

Your "bookie mates" might convince a retarded punter that cash out is a bad option but as we've seen tonight, in real time, the cash out option is a nightmare for them. The ONLY data that matters to prove it either way is...

well you're a professional punter, you're the self-proclaimed expert, what is it?





Your bullshit doesn't cut no ice. The total saved v. the total lost by punters using the cash out button will prove without doubt that the cash out option is the punter's friend, not the bookies. They curse the first bookie who introduced it.

In furtherance of your education, my Genoa Liverpool double cash out has now increased to 1.405. Not the 1.444 that Genoa earned at 4/9 of course but a big increase from what it was, 1.342. You know why? Self-proclaimed expert? Of course you do. It's because Liverpool's odds have been slashed to 1/4 v. Stoke after their destruction of Roma.

In further furtherance of your vocational qualifications and your CPD, get this. I got Blackburn at 3/4 tonight in a double with TSG Hoffenheim on Friday. Instead of getting 1.75 to cash out with, I'm getting 1.648.

And my Chelmsford win tonight trebled with Fulham on Friday and Peterhead on Saturday, the bookies are withholding 8.852% in their cash out offer.

Idiot.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #164 on: April 24, 2018, 09:52:30 PM »
You should have cashed oot min.

I agree but a self-proclaimed expert in this field disagrees.
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Offline minijc

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Re: Betting
« Reply #165 on: April 25, 2018, 10:31:56 AM »
You keep ignoring my point just so you can belittle me, standard rocket behaviour from yourself, my point is and remains that when you cash out the bookies never give you the true worth of your bet AT THE TIME, that is a fact, you also say cash out and in play are separate when they aren't as without in play odds you wouldn't get a suitable offer.  That's my final bit on the subject, you think it's a good thing where as I don't, if people want to cash out their bets then go ahead but like I've already said it's a short term gain but a long term loser if it's continued to be used on most punters bets, wish you and the others on here the very best with your betting.
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Offline RicoS321

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Re: Betting
« Reply #166 on: April 25, 2018, 11:21:03 AM »
You keep ignoring my point just so you can belittle me, standard rocket behaviour from yourself, my point is and remains that when you cash out the bookies never give you the true worth of your bet AT THE TIME, that is a fact, you also say cash out and in play are separate when they aren't as without in play odds you wouldn't get a suitable offer.  That's my final bit on the subject, you think it's a good thing where as I don't, if people want to cash out their bets then go ahead but like I've already said it's a short term gain but a long term loser if it's continued to be used on most punters bets, wish you and the others on here the very best with your betting.

To be fair, I dinna think that was yer original point. You said that no experienced bettor would ever use cash out. That's certainly the bit I found strange.

I don't think anyone would use cash out on "most" bets, they would define each bet separately and base their judgement on the specific detail at the time. You've got to assume that even yer average bettor is a risk taker really, and so cash outs are probably in the minority. I'd go further and say that most cash outs are likely instigated by the bettor rather than bookie due to doubts over their stake.

The problem you have is that you can't reliably measure the success of cash outs from a bookies perspective, because the bettor has to be in a position of refusal in order to measure that point of refusal. For example, if I put a bet on the dons to win 2-0 on Friday and went to the game and we were 2-0 up after 50 minutes, I could go online and check the cash out offer and choose to take it or not. If I accept and it remains 2-0 then we know the value "saved" by the bookie, similarly if I accept and a goal is scored we can see my gain. However, I could just as easily be pished and not check the status of that bet until full time. If Hertz pull a goal back or we score another, do we count me not taking the cash out that I never saw as a successful use of the cash out facility for the bookie? If so, what is the level of that success? Do we say that the maximum cash out odds were offered in the minute before Hertz/we scored, or do we take the cash out odds offered the minute after the second goal was scored, or before the second went in where I could have also got a portion of my 2-0 odds returned, or an average of all 3? You simply can't measure it as there's too much hidden/silent evidence that can't be quantified, because you're completely ignoring the overwhelming majority of bets where the bettor does not attempt to use the cash out facility whether in success or failure. Within our 2-0 example for instance, lets say the goals were in 82nd and 84th minutes. Those people who had a bet on 1-0 or 0-0 could conceivably have been offered cash out positions too and taken them or not. Do we count the number of bets not cashed out when the score was 0-0 and the bettor had 0-0 as a success for the bookie of the cash-out system or just a success of the normal win/loss process? Eh? Fars yer answers min? I'm fucking confused.

Edit: in Rocket/BBs syndicate, each of their successes can also - by definition - as a success to them over the cash out system, as they did not cash out (unless they did). Each loss is is also - by definition - a success for the bookie because they did not cash out.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 11:27:40 AM by RicoS321 »

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #167 on: April 25, 2018, 11:28:30 AM »
The cash out option returns more money to the punter on bets that went on to lose than it saves in them cashing out before the bet goes on to win anyway. That's a fact.

Rhetoric such as short term gains and longer term losses when discussing the cash out concept illustrates a critical thinking breakdown. That's a fact too.

You also fail to comprehend that every bet has no value until it wins. Every bet is a stake lost, until it is realised either as a winning bet on completion or cashed out before completion. It has no "value" ever, other than to the punter who can decide whether or not to take the money early.

Sounds to me like a gullible perennially-losing punter has had his head stuffed full of mince.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 11:41:43 AM by rocket_scientist »
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #168 on: April 25, 2018, 11:37:19 AM »
Rico, I've cashed out twice with BB, costing us £6 or £7 cos they both went on to win anyway. It was the 88th minute when MK Dons and Pawlett were battering Blackburn at 1-2 the first one (and my team were only 1 up at the time) and just before Chelsea scored their 2nd on Sunday. So it cost us but no regrets for realising the bets when I did and taking out the risk of two losing stakes. That's the only twice we've done it in 17 or 18 bets.

I'm still 100% since our first double and last nights loss came after 5 straight winners. I'm going to bet a big chunk of our £90+ profit this Saturday on BB's Monaco and my Liverpool. And I've put more money than we've got in the bank on our "nailed on treble" with my mate who picked Dunfermline, plus a big stake on our communal picks, Ayr and Dunfermline. Just a funny time of the season though which I hopefully won't be saying I should've known after Saturday!
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Offline RicoS321

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Re: Betting
« Reply #169 on: April 25, 2018, 12:04:06 PM »
Rico, I've cashed out twice with BB, costing us £6 or £7 cos they both went on to win anyway. It was the 88th minute when MK Dons and Pawlett were battering Blackburn at 1-2 the first one (and my team were only 1 up at the time) and just before Chelsea scored their 2nd on Sunday. So it cost us but no regrets for realising the bets when I did and taking out the risk of two losing stakes. That's the only twice we've done it in 17 or 18 bets.

But then you also didn't take cash out option when offered in all your other winnings, so they were a success too over the cash out system.

I suppose IMO the better way to look at it is an entirely new bet, and that's how I'd always view it. Completely forget about what the original bet was because it's entirely irrelevant to the new bet.

For example, if you put £10 on 1-0 with a £15 return in a game with ten minutes to go and you check yer cash out option and its £13.50, then you simply decide whether you want to gamble £13.50 on 0-0 over ten minutes for a £15 return as that is what your new bet is. I find that looking at it that way gives a more logical approach to it. It's no different then to any other "in-game" bet with an entirely new stake. If I'm watching a game, then I have the immediate (perceived) advantage of having a better understanding of what's going to happen next. I've bet on quite a few games that I've been watching on the telly when I have a suspicion that team X is going to stage a comeback or some such. This is no different.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #170 on: April 25, 2018, 12:10:48 PM »
The stupidest of all his many stupid points was the guy who took out £4,950 for a £10 stake wasn't getting "value" and that the bookie cheated him. For sure Man U would've been less than 1/2 at the time but who would've stuck 5k on them then? The punter didn't. He put a tenner on, which multiplied by six successes turned his £10 into 500/1 if he wanted to take it. Will he be kicking himself for not holding out for £7,400? Will he fuck. Will the bookies be clapping themselves on the backs for saving themselves £2,400? Will they fuck. They just lost a 500/1 punt. For every cash out (like this) they win on, there's many more that they lose.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 12:32:46 PM by rocket_scientist »
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Offline minijc

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Re: Betting
« Reply #171 on: April 25, 2018, 01:06:03 PM »
To be fair, I dinna think that was yer original point. You said that no experienced bettor would ever use cash out. That's certainly the bit I found strange.

I don't think anyone would use cash out on "most" bets, they would define each bet separately and base their judgement on the specific detail at the time. You've got to assume that even yer average bettor is a risk taker really, and so cash outs are probably in the minority. I'd go further and say that most cash outs are likely instigated by the bettor rather than bookie due to doubts over their stake.

The problem you have is that you can't reliably measure the success of cash outs from a bookies perspective, because the bettor has to be in a position of refusal in order to measure that point of refusal. For example, if I put a bet on the dons to win 2-0 on Friday and went to the game and we were 2-0 up after 50 minutes, I could go online and check the cash out offer and choose to take it or not. If I accept and it remains 2-0 then we know the value "saved" by the bookie, similarly if I accept and a goal is scored we can see my gain. However, I could just as easily be pished and not check the status of that bet until full time. If Hertz pull a goal back or we score another, do we count me not taking the cash out that I never saw as a successful use of the cash out facility for the bookie? If so, what is the level of that success? Do we say that the maximum cash out odds were offered in the minute before Hertz/we scored, or do we take the cash out odds offered the minute after the second goal was scored, or before the second went in where I could have also got a portion of my 2-0 odds returned, or an average of all 3? You simply can't measure it as there's too much hidden/silent evidence that can't be quantified, because you're completely ignoring the overwhelming majority of bets where the bettor does not attempt to use the cash out facility whether in success or failure. Within our 2-0 example for instance, lets say the goals were in 82nd and 84th minutes. Those people who had a bet on 1-0 or 0-0 could conceivably have been offered cash out positions too and taken them or not. Do we count the number of bets not cashed out when the score was 0-0 and the bettor had 0-0 as a success for the bookie of the cash-out system or just a success of the normal win/loss process? Eh? Fars yer answers min? I'm fucking confused.

Edit: in Rocket/BBs syndicate, each of their successes can also - by definition - as a success to them over the cash out system, as they did not cash out (unless they did). Each loss is is also - by definition - a success for the bookie because they did not cash out.
I'm friends with a lot of guys that bet full time, most making a lot of money each year, they won't use cash out as it's not the value play, they'll hedge or trade their positions to make as much as possible and remain in control of the bet, there's plenty examples online now that many get stung by cash out, most recent one 2 weeks ago was a guy that cashed out his £1 bet for 64p, bet then came in and the return was over £1000, people like that probably shouldn't bet, I also know a guy I went to school with that cashes out at the first chance he gets which in the long run is a massive loser.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 01:25:03 PM by minijc »
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Offline minijc

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Re: Betting
« Reply #172 on: April 25, 2018, 01:09:37 PM »
The stupidest of all his many stupid points was the guy who took out £4,950 for a £10 stake wasn't getting "value" and that the bookie cheated him. For sure Man U would've been less than 1/2 at the time but who would've stuck 5k on them then? The punter didn't. He put a tenner on, which multiplied by six successes turned his £10 into 500/1 if he wanted to take it. Will he be kicking himself for not holding out for £7,400? Will he fuck. Will the bookies be clapping themselves on the backs for saving themselves £2,400? Will they fuck. They just lost a 500/1 punt. For every cash out (like this) they win on, there's many more that they lose.
as ever you go with the insults, I thought you were past all of that shit?  Never mind, you genuinely think the guys bets was worth £4950 at the time, it wasn't, it was worth over £5000, that's where the bookie then makes a little extra and that's why they like people that cash out, I'd even go as far to say that over a football season bookies will be saving a fair amount through cash out
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 01:17:28 PM by minijc »
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #173 on: April 25, 2018, 01:49:01 PM »
as ever you go with the insults, I thought you were past all of that shit? 

It's not insults. I said that your points were stupid. Either they are or they are not.

I even pointed out why they were stupid and I went further, I told you where they had come from.

On the contrary, I invested time trying to help you, to get you to understand.

Here's a quote from Steve Jobs. You probably use one of his products: -

"That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains".

So let's cut the bullshit and let's think clean. The bullshit is your pride and it is once again your fragility in self-confidence and your lack of intellect but at least half of them over on the hat are thicker than you are so take comfort from this fact. It's not my fault that you struggle to comprehend. Ok, I could be gentler with you but this is Aberdeen, we say it how it is. Trust me, I could be much more coorse too but your failing to grasp simple concepts and repeating something that someone told you doesn't cut any ice. As a pro punter yourself, you could have at least used numbers and scenarios to bolster your argument but none were forthcoming.


Never mind, you genuinely think the guys bets was worth £4950 at the time, it wasn't, it was worth over £5000, that's where the bookie then makes a little extra and that's why they like people that cash out, I'd even go as far to say that over a football season bookies will be saving a fair amount through cash out

In the spirit of keeping it simple, the bet wasn't worth £4,950 at that time. It wasn't "worth" anything. The only transaction had been a £10 stake and on anything above 2 or 3/1 shots, let alone accas and 740/1 shots like this, the bets lose the vast majority of the time.

The bookie didn't "make any extra". The bookie lost 4,950, for a tenner! There was a chance he might have made a tenner if Man U didn't win, and if the other six stakes hadn't too but we live in the age of the cash-out option and as I have proved this season, it has worked for us. But my example is irrelevant. Big data informs us that it works for punters and it works against the bookies, thanks to the first bookie who introduced it. The bookies who tell you that cashing out is good for them are dishonest people by nature and why would they give you free advice anyway, unlike me?
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Offline RicoS321

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Re: Betting
« Reply #174 on: April 25, 2018, 01:54:30 PM »
I'm friends with a lot of guys that bet full time, most making 6figures a year, they won't use cash out as it's not the value play, they'll hedge or trade their positions to make as much as possible and remain in control of the bet, there's plenty examples online now that many get stung by cash out, most recent one 2 weeks ago was a guy that cashed out his £1 bet for 64p, bet then came in and the return was over £1000, people like that probably shouldn't bet, I also know a guy I went to school with that cashes out at the first chance he gets which in the long run is a massive loser.

Obviously that's a terrible example, a bit like using the example of the obese manny fa lived til he was 100 as a reason to not eat healthily. Anyone who cashes out a £1 bet probably shouldn't bet as you say. Although the bookie still has not won anymore then 36p on this occasion, they just didn't lose £999.36 in the process. Similarly your mate who always cashes out isn't a good illustration of the intelligent gambler.

You suggest that people trade or hedge their positions, that's the bit I'm not familiar with in modern betting. I understood that you could do this on Betfair (the inventors of the cash out I believe), but I wasn't aware you could trade a Bet365/WillieHill bet for example. In other words, if I don't use Betfair then my only choice is cash out or bet the offered stake on the remaining bet (which is what yer doing). If I only use Betfair then perhaps I'm limiting my initial odds as a result? I dinna get the bit where you say they never use it, that's the part that's confusing me. At that point they have already decided that they want to cash out (going by yer six figure sum suggestion, they're clearly not just ditching their bet if they think they're going to lose through pride or something). Are there channels not available to me as an occasional bettor that they're using? Or do they just always use Betfair?

To clarify too, bookies don't save money through cash out, they just don't lose as much, it's a very important distinction. Also, "they like people that cash out", isnae really a thing (other than yer mate) is it? People are not "cashers-out" or "non-cashers-out" surely? That must be something that is on a per-game basis, rather than per-gambler basis? Rocket being an example, could not be classed as a "casher-out", but does cash out on individual games. Anyone that cashes out every single time is clearly a moron and shouldn't be the basis of this conversation. Or was yer point not actually "never cash out" but "don't cash out unless you feel you'll otherwise lose and you can't trade your bet", in which case I think you, me and Rocket are probably all in agreement.

Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #175 on: April 25, 2018, 01:56:04 PM »
I'm friends with a lot of guys that bet full time, most making a lot of money each year, they won't use cash out as it's not the value play, they'll hedge or trade their positions to make as much as possible and remain in control of the bet

Now here's language with a suggestion that you might know what you're talking about.

Do you use betting exchanges yourself?

Please paint a scenario using numbers where you laid off and/or bet additionally to negate the use of the cash out option.
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Offline minijc

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Re: Betting
« Reply #176 on: April 25, 2018, 02:52:08 PM »
Now here's language with a suggestion that you might know what you're talking about.

Do you use betting exchanges yourself?

Please paint a scenario using numbers where you laid off and/or bet additionally to negate the use of the cash out option.
If I didn't know what I was talking about I wouldn't be arguing it, as I said earlier when there are guys that used to RUN bookies that tell me cash out is terrible value, of course my opinion is going to lean towards theirs.  There's a lot I could say but won't as it's unfair but I've worked in the industry and been playing it for 13 years now, I know a lot more than I let on.

As for an example, Gary Anderson when he won his first world championship, I had bet him at 16/1 on the betfair exchange, I managed to lay a little off to get just more than my stake back and still have the chance of a considerable win if he managed to deliver the goods, however had I just cashed out I'd have maybe gotten 3x my stake and that was it.
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Offline minijc

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Re: Betting
« Reply #177 on: April 25, 2018, 02:54:32 PM »
Also find it a little silly that you think a bet is worth nothing until a final action is taken, if that was the case bookmakers wouldn't be trying to entice you to part with the bet early and the punter wouldn't be watching the cashout value move up and down during the event.
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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #178 on: April 25, 2018, 03:04:53 PM »
If I didn't know what I was talking about I wouldn't be arguing it, as I said earlier when there are guys that used to RUN bookies that tell me cash out is terrible value, of course my opinion is going to lean towards theirs.  There's a lot I could say but won't as it's unfair but I've worked in the industry and been playing it for 13 years now, I know a lot more than I let on.

As for an example, Gary Anderson when he won his first world championship, I had bet him at 16/1 on the betfair exchange, I managed to lay a little off to get just more than my stake back and still have the chance of a considerable win if he managed to deliver the goods, however had I just cashed out I'd have maybe gotten 3x my stake and that was it.

You contested something I said. You came on here and took issue with what I wrote.

I asked you to explain yourself. Now I am certain that you are unable to.

You're not "arguing" anything. All you've said is that cash out is "terrible value". This is nonsense. It makes no sense. Laying part of our likely winnings to recover stakes on the original bet is what betting exchanges are all about. The cash out options which appear in front of 99% of punters in the UK on their non-exchange sites is what we are talking about and how can they ever be classed as terrible value without giving an example, numerically? You argued that the bet the NE mannie cashed out wasn't worth 4,950 but you fail to say where you get this opinion of yours from?

Why would your opinion lean towards what anyone says without doing the due diligence for yourself?

That is insane. This is how governments run countries. They bank on our laziness and our stupidity.

There's a lot more you could say? You can't even back up what you said about a very simple concept. Worked in the industry? Fuck off. Nobody this stupid ever gets near a numeracy-based industry. You know more than you let on? Official secrets is it? You speak shite, as per the very first post to you on this thread, the one which you started by coming over oh so clever and now oh so secret.

Idiot.

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Offline rocket_scientist

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Re: Betting
« Reply #179 on: April 25, 2018, 03:12:30 PM »
Also find it a little silly that you think a bet is worth nothing until a final action is taken, if that was the case bookmakers wouldn't be trying to entice you to part with the bet early and the punter wouldn't be watching the cashout value move up and down during the event.

This is because you have no critical thinking ability. You can't do what Steve Jobs demands.

An offer is an offer. The worth or value of any bet is only determined when it is realised.

They're not enticing us. They have been forced to provide offers because the first one did it and the average punter is an intellectual retard who gets off on the power of the cash out without ever knowing whether it represents a good deal or not. But the algorithms that make up the cash out offers aren't magic nor black art, as nothing ever is to anyone who is numerate.

I wouldn't have cashed out that tenner for £1,500 or £2,500 when there was £7,400 on the table. That's taking the piss. But I would have at £4,000, as I'm guessing every moron would who deals in multiple accas and 740 to 1 shots. So the bookie didn't need to offer as much as they did but they don't sit there monitoring individual bets. It's an algorithm, naturally written in their favour but always reasonable enough not to lose face. McBookie's algorithms are much tighter than bet365's for their cash-outs so they will lose less over the course of a year than 365 will, even proportionately as their revenue is so much smaller.
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