Author Topic: GRAND NATIONAL  (Read 12082 times)

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Offline daytripping

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GRAND NATIONAL
« on: March 29, 2010, 01:17:01 PM »
Some strong trends for the grand national and applying them will give us a far better chance of getting the winner than not.
13 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or above.
11 of the last 14 were 9 or 10 year old.
1970 was the last time a horse won this without previously having won at at least 3 miles.
may sound obvious but you need a consistently good jumper. Horses with 3 or 4 career falls are best avoided.
previous years Irish grand national does well ( Niche market ).
prominent racers do well.
last year was a freak year with the first 4 all carrying 11 stone or more...as you can see from the list below that is tough to do so preference is given to horses carrying less than 11 stone.
only 1 horse that won at cheltenham has won since 1961.


Year Horse Age Wgt Trainer Jockey SP
2009 Mon Mome 9 11-0 Miss V Williams Liam Treadwell 100/1
2008 Comply Or Die 9 10-9 D E Pipe Timmy Murphy 7/1JF
2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 Gordon Elliott R M Power 33/1
2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 Martin Brassil N P Madden 11/1
2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 W P Mullins R Walsh 7/1F
2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 D McCain G Lee 16/1
2003 Monty´s Pass 10 10-7 James Joseph Mangan B J Geraghty 16/1
2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies J Culloty 20/1
2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11 N B Mason Richard Guest 33/1
2000 Papillon 9 10-12 T M Walsh R Walsh 10/1
1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-0 Thomas Carberry P Carberry 10/1
1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 N A Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn 7/1F
1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0 S A Brookshaw A Dobbin 14/1
1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 T A Casey M A Fitzgerald 7/1f














I am eliminating from my calculations the top 10 in the weights
abertas run...madison du berlais..notre pere...tarania...our vic...mon mome...black apalachi....joe lively...vic venturi...comply or die
going through the others in betting order
big fella thanks...too young.
tricky trickster....too young
backstage...too young
the package...too young
war of attrition....too old
NICHE MARKET....BET @ 27
STATE OF PLAY..BET @ 27
arbor supreme....too young
SNOWY MORNING...BET 27 - TOP TIP  8)
character building...has tried 4m plus and seemed to not stay.
bally holland...doubtfull stayer
MY WILL...BET @ 46
DONT PUSH IT @ 50
chief dan george...won at cheltenham
maljimar...not won 3m
irish raptor...too old
possol...too young
dream alliance...poor jumper
hello bud...too old
whinstone boy ...needs soft ground
cant buy time....too young
razor royale....too young
king johns castle...too old
CLOUDY LANE...BET 75
iris de balme...form ?
silver birch....too old
palypso de creek....too young
le beau bal...too young
roulez cool....too young
air force one...too young
erics charm....too old
ballyfitz....makes mistakes
abbrybraney...makes mistakes
CERIUM...BET @ 140...was 4th last year as an 8yo and now a 9yo and on the same mark...hasnt won over 3m but cannot argue with last years 4th.
offshore account....makes mistakes
cane brake...too old
joe lively ...too old

these are all the horses that are shortest odds in the race as the winner is likely to be in there somewhere.

I have backed the above horses win only on betfair and plan to lay each horse in running at roughly 5% of the bet price...obviously leaving a decent profit if catching the winner.
some of the bets are carrying up to 11 stone 5lb but as I am trying to lay in running they could trade short even if the weight does tell in the end.
All the horses are 9 or 10 year old but wouldnt dismiss 11 year olds if you have strong reasons for liking them.



Offline glasgowdon

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2010, 01:21:52 PM »
Good post.

+1

Offline mizer

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2010, 01:27:07 PM »
Fuck me I might actually bet on a decent horse this time rather than picking one by its name.......saying that I would have went for your pick snowy morning as it is a snowy morning.

Offline dave_min

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2010, 04:11:23 PM »
I'm quite simple, can you just give me a horses name please?
That has just gave him another Signature line

NMMG

Offline Kowalski

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2010, 04:36:08 PM »
I'm quite simple, can you just give me a horses name please?

Dame Kelly Holmes?

Offline mizer

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2010, 05:27:52 PM »
I'm quite simple, can you just give me a horses name please?

Lee Mare


Offline maverick sheep

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2010, 06:18:46 PM »
I'm quite simple, can you just give me a horses name please?

Ask Hebrew.
"The revolution will inevitably awaken in the British working class the deepest passions which have been diverted along artificial channels with the aid of football."

Offline daytripping

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2010, 08:38:37 PM »
Me likey vely muchy!



Sorry I should hve added that this is not my info but I've been following this chap for a long time and his info is second to none, he puts in 12 hour days and is a pro at this game.

If you're not into laying horses in running then just pick your favourite horse and bet each way, I'd say Snowy Morning and State of play are my top tips, bet each way on both, goes without saying that people should only bet what they can afford to lose.

Offline hebrew

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2010, 09:59:47 PM »
Ask Hebrew.

Hoi what's that supposed to mean!!!!!!!!!

Offline maverick sheep

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2010, 10:18:19 PM »
Hoi what's that supposed to mean!!!!!!!!!



I've not been able to look him in the eye since Stark's Park.
"The revolution will inevitably awaken in the British working class the deepest passions which have been diverted along artificial channels with the aid of football."

Offline Kowalski

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2010, 01:03:49 PM »
McCoy on Don't Push It worth a look?

Offline SeeBass

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2010, 01:11:56 AM »
My four are Comply Or Die because T.J.Murphy is my favourite jockey and been on him the last two years when winning and finishing second.  Don`t Push It with McCoy as I want to see the great man win it one day.  Eric`s Charm as W.Hutchinson has won me a lot of money in the past and finally Character Building due to the fact there`s a woman riding it.  Only other time I`ve picked the winner was when I had a £1 on Red Marauder at (33/1) in 2001.

Offline Kowalski

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2010, 01:13:16 PM »
I'm on State of Play and Don't Push It.

Offline BobbyBiscuit

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2010, 01:28:13 PM »
Niche Market, Cloudy Lane, My Will and Don't Push It for me.

My sister in law had a wee baby girl last night which is fantastic news obviously. My brother phoned me an hour ago and said, "if you're at a bookies today, can you put £10 on Don't Push It for me because the wife had to have a C-Section last night"  ;D
It's not about escaping. It's about getting out with a bit of dignity.
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Offline maverick sheep

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2010, 01:37:22 PM »
My three fallers are; Character Building, Irish Raptor, Hello Bud.
"The revolution will inevitably awaken in the British working class the deepest passions which have been diverted along artificial channels with the aid of football."

Offline BobbyBiscuit

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2010, 04:29:37 PM »
Don't Push It wins!

Get in!!
It's not about escaping. It's about getting out with a bit of dignity.
If you're in it, don't fucking moan about it, make it yours and leave a mark

Offline Slim

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2010, 04:32:21 PM »
I backed Don't Push It at 40/1 :D

Only put £2 on it though :/

Offline Kowalski

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2010, 04:33:06 PM »
Yes, £270!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Offline daytripping

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2010, 04:35:08 PM »
Yes, £270!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I told you my man was good, winner and a place.  ;D

Offline BobbyBiscuit

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Re: GRAND NATIONAL
« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2010, 04:39:53 PM »
I told you my man was good, winner and a place.  ;D

Cheers for the tips!
It's not about escaping. It's about getting out with a bit of dignity.
If you're in it, don't fucking moan about it, make it yours and leave a mark